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Sunday, December 27

Messy Mix Monday

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Classic setup Monday for at least a little ice. Canadian High funneling in cold, Northeasterly wind locks sub-freezing temps at the surface. Meanwhile, the deep south system opens up and moves northward, spreading moisture and warm air over. The question is - how much snow? How much sleet? How much freezing rain? Freezing rain amounts don't look overly impressive, but we all know any little bit of ice can be treacherous on roads and sidewalks. Doesn't appear to be enough to cause any major power outages.

Now, could the snow be enough to knock us out of the "least snow in December" running? Possibly. It would take 2.6" to do that. If we do NOT get that in this system, the least snow in December record may stand. Yes, it looks like some snow in the form of lake effect late week, but could end up being another 'east of the lakes' event, leaving the ROC snow-free. But this is lake effect, and trying to forecast where and how much 5 days in advance is just moronic :)

120 comments:

  1. When has lake effect not been east of the lakes?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Well I just happen to be a moron.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Cold. snow, return or should I say the start of Winter.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Isn't your job supposed to be a weather forecaster? I must be moronic

    ReplyDelete
  5. Finally it feels like late December outside, cold with snow showers fling. I love it. Winter is getting ready to return, with multiple troughs and possibly a potent clipper at weeks end, I suspect the ground will be white come this weekend.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hope the weather does not impact people's New Year's Eve and Day plans.

      Delete
  6. This event tonight is looking meager at best. Getting weaker with every model run. NBD!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not sure that is accurate anon 1:15 because I think the latest Euro shows more precipitation for our area.

      Delete
  7. The WWA text says this about ice accretion:

    "ICE ACCUMULATING UP TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH TONIGHT AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TUESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF UP TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH."

    That's enough ice for scattered power outages, especially when it's coupled with the stiff breeze we're going to get. Hopefully that's overdone and most of it ends up being snow/sleet instead, or even just liquid rain for that matter.

    ReplyDelete
  8. So this pattern change that is coming, are we talking about a change to more seasonable temps with snow chances or will it be like last year with shots of polar air? Honestly not looking forward to what we had last Feb but some typical winter weather is fine by me.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Seasonably cold with lake effect (mainly in the snowbelts but some may cross the ROC metro, too early to call) and a possible clipper.

      Delete
  9. I'm looking through KROC's 3 day history as I observe some unexpected very light patches of snow outside. Light snow and 25 degrees at 9:54 AM with 0.01" of liquid equivalent measured. It's possible that the December snow shutout will have been broken before the main system even gets here, albeit by the bare minimum threshold. Temps are currently holding steady in the mid 20s, which is a fair bit below what was forecasted by the NWS. That could portend a later switch to plain rain, or it could mean absolutely nothing. Upstream OBS will be important to make that determination later today. Towards the medium range, if you're bellyaching about the lack of storms to start our colder pattern then there's good news for you: the ensembles look potentially more active towards the second week of January with the mean trough axis retrograding west and more low centers showing up in the member spreads.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I have said keep an eye out with this icing event tonight. I have seen it underdone before.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But not confident enough to put a name to your prediction?

      Delete
    2. Bob Barker Banister BeautifulDecember 28, 2015 at 3:29 PM

      Okay I am Bob Barker Banister Beautiful (BBBB) and just keep an eye and hope it becomes rain quickly.

      Delete
    3. Works for me. Just like to give proper credit where due. I wonder how CCCC feels about BBBB?

      Delete
    4. Still worried about the icing tonight.

      Delete
  11. 0.4" of snow at the airport from this morning's lake effect. The December shutout has ended.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Ok when does the nowcasting start? I forgot gas for the generator

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nowcasting starts now ;)

      Starting to snow in Henrietta, mix line stretching from Silver Creek southeastward to Olean/Wellsville and very slowly progressing northward. Don't worry about gassing your generator.

      Delete
  13. Sweet Jesus it's snowing! Been snowing in Perinton since about 600 even though the radar showed snow coverage for at least an hour prior.

    ReplyDelete
  14. This will end quickly bigger moisture on radar to our NW. Change quick to rain.

    ReplyDelete
  15. I don't see either a quick end or a quick change to rain. Temps actually dropped a few degrees during the past hour and there's more precip filling in to our SW. The NWS has categorical POPs through late tomorrow morning.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Currently getting pelted by zillions of icy needles.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So go inside.

      Delete
    2. No way. I must absorb the essence of winter to preserve my superpowers.

      Delete
  17. Bob Barker Banister BeautifulDecember 28, 2015 at 10:23 PM

    Looks like a few hours of sleet/FR coming in then over to rain.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Temps gone up 4 degrees in 4 hours. Still 28 at my house perinton, so a few more hours of icing based on that trend.

    ReplyDelete
  19. CCCC it is definitely going to change to rain in a few hours right?

    ReplyDelete
  20. Changed my mind a bit...3-4 more hours of ice, then changeover to light rain.

    ReplyDelete
  21. What did the airport record for snowfall?

    Get ready East of the lakes are gonna get pummeled. Us not so much. Snow showers at best.

    ReplyDelete
  22. So where do we stand for the monthly total? No longer a shutout. But this feels like losing by 100 pts then getting a safety as time expires.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe they recorded 2.2" at the airport for past 24 hrs.

      Delete
    2. 2.0" is the official number by midnight last night. So it looks like they recorded another 0.2 since midnight. Still more than 50% less than the previous record set in 2006 of 4.8.

      Hopefully this marks the end of the snow drought. Temperatures appear conducive for snow support for most of the foreseeable future.

      Delete
  23. Coldest recorded February and probably warmest December in the same calendar year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Crazy stuff. Tame compared to what other areas of the nation have experienced. Makes me appreciate our climate.
      I really like the look of our temperatures on the Accuweather long range forecast.

      Delete
    2. previous record is 2.6" in 1928, so i think we ll be okay till thursday night to beat the record

      Delete
    3. Where do you get records that go back that far? Nws only goes back to 1940.

      Delete
    4. NOWData goes back to 1871 and the Top 10 lists include years before 1940.

      By the way, we also had the warmest May of all time this calendar year.

      Delete
    5. Thanks for the info. I'll be sure to check it out.

      Delete
  24. Bob Barker Banister BeautifulDecember 29, 2015 at 3:38 PM

    According to the latest model runs things could get really interesting the next few weeks just as the blog experts have been saying.

    ReplyDelete
  25. meh

    I'd like to see a better NAO block, but that was always going to be the final chip to fall. +PNA/-EPO patterns cans still be serviceable though, and having a -AO can't hurt at least in the cold department. Give me a deep central based -NAO all day erry day though.

    ReplyDelete
  26. I'm a bit surprised that the snow hasn't completely melted yet.

    ReplyDelete
  27. The importance of spellchecking...

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CXZ1rTbWsAAfRto.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  28. Now looks like a warm-up at the end of next week the 40s?

    ReplyDelete
  29. As I stated before that pattern change will be getting pushed back every month. Before we know it will be April and all the hope people on here led by CCCC will say darn looked like that pattern change was going to happen in January blah blah blah.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Carol Cheryl Cristal Cherlene December 17, 2015 at 12:33 PM:

    "There are ensemble hints of more of a west coast ridging tendency going towards the new year. It's a baby step since we still have no blocking and Alaska is still awash with troughing, but then no one said this would be an easy transition process."

    Carol Cheryl Cristal Cherlene December 17, 2015 at 4:49 PM:

    "Sounds like the EPS mean is also on board with a change to ridging in the west. So it's still early but it seems there's now a door opening from the current garbage pattern to one that's less garbage. The Euro weekly updates this evening, we'll see if it also agrees."

    New Year's Day modeled heights:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122918/gfs_z500a_us_12.png

    CPC teleconnections:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

    Day 6-10 temp departures:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122918/gfs-ens_T2ma5d_us_2.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015122912/gem-ens_T2ma5d_us_2.png

    Day 11-15:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122918/gfs-ens_T2ma5d_us_3.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015122912/gem-ens_T2ma5d_us_3.png

    Recommended reading for anon:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denialism

    ReplyDelete
  31. Blah Blah Blah only time will tell. Wiling to bet you will still be posting stuff showing a change that does not come imo.

    ReplyDelete
  32. "In the psychology of human behavior, denialism is a person's choice to deny reality, as a way to avoid a psychologically uncomfortable truth.[1] Denialism is an essentially irrational action that withholds the validation of an historical experience or event, by the person refusing to accept an empirically verifiable reality.[2]"

    ReplyDelete
  33. Cohen:

    "-The AO is currently weakly positive and is predicted to trend negative into negative territory starting next week.

    -The negative AO trend is reflective of the model forecast of initial low pressure/geopotential heights over the North Atlantic side of the Arctic transitioning to more high pressure/geopotential heights over the entire Arctic basin. The models are predicting two regions of strong geopotential height rises one across northwestern Siberia and the Barents Kara Seas and the other across Alaska and northwest Canada. This has significant implications for the strength of the polar vortex in January.

    -With high pressure strengthening in the Barents Kara seas, temperatures should turn cold first across Western Siberia and become more expansive with time. The models predict that first the cold air will expand westward toward Eastern Europe and then eastward across all of Siberia and eventually East Asia as well. How much of the cold air will reach Western Europe will likely depend on how much of the positive geopotential height anomalies will bridge across towards Greenland.

    -Similarly, rising pressure/geopotential heights across western North America will result in deepening troughing across eastern North America and a cooling trend in temperatures for the Eastern United States.

    -One strong pulse of energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere that just ended over the weekend has perturbed the polar vortex and has helped to initiate the cooling across the mid-latitudes. The models are predicting a second pulse during the first week of January and we continue to anticipate even further energy transfer. This will continue to perturb or disturb the polar vortex further, which will likely peak sometime in January.

    -High snow cover and low sea ice this past fall favored a weakening of the polar vortex preferentially in January. Perturbing of the polar vortex is underway and in our opinion, the predicted hemispheric circulation pattern favors further weakening of the polar vortex. Following a weakened polar vortex, the negative phase of the AO, cold temperatures and potentially an increase in snowstorms is favored across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes including the Eastern United States, Europe and East Asia."

    The PV will be getting the taffy puller treatment over the next ten days:

    http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f240.gif
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122918/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_21.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015122912/gem-ens_Tz10_nhem_21.png

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stop cutting and posting other people's opinions and insight, and start posting your own.

      Delete
  34. Not much going on for awhile-Just lake effect in the belts. Boring!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  35. As far as I recall, a winter pattern wasn't likely until at least mid January. This was mentioned a few weeks ago. If we get to the end of January and winter is nowhere tobe seen, it might be towel throwing in time.

    ReplyDelete
  36. 60's are gone till spring. 50's probably gone as well. 40's will be infrequent. 30's more the norm for day time highs. Maybe not typically Jan weather on the way, but a HUGE shift from where we've been.

    As I've been saying for close to two weeks, the trend is your friend, if you like winter weather.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. and with temps mostly in the 30's for daytime highs and 20's for lows, we are going to be far more likely to see snow starting early Jan than where we were in December.

      Delete
  37. No Storms in site.

    ReplyDelete
  38. To those sounding the alarm, we literally just had the torch pattern break down in the past 72 hours, a pattern we have been in for almost an entire month. Models are not all of the sudden going to start lighting up with storm systems, especially with weak tele's right now. In addition, it's going to take some time for models to hop off the el nino bias. I believe CCCC alluded to the fact that the pattern will become more supportive for larger scale systems beginning next week, and I have to agree with him. With an ample supply of cold air and tele's finally beginning to trend in our favor(especially PNA, AO, and even MJO wheeling into phase 7 now that el nino has weakened), models will begin showing much more favorable conditions for snow. If you're going to look at models run to run, you need to look at means and spreads for anything over 5 days out with so many atmospheric variables changing. As the great Aaron Rodgers said last year, R-E-L-A-X, relax...

    P.S, everyone is at risk of seeing a burst of snow this weekend as signs are pointing towards an arctic front moving through.

    ReplyDelete
  39. And just like that we now have a LES advisory for Wyoming County.
    The trend is our friend as I've been saying for nearly 2 weeks.

    ReplyDelete
  40. I am not in Wyoming County. That is the standard lake belt. The rest of us get nothing.

    ReplyDelete
  41. There will be a blizzard in The Flower City within the next 21 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 30, 2015 at 4:09 PM

      Winter...........has officially arrived. Love it.

      Delete
  42. LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN BUSINESS FOR SOME DECENT LAKE EFFECT IN MONOROE AND WAYNE COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

    LAKE EFFECT SNOW
    WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT IN A WESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL VEER TO
    A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST TO
    NORTH ON MONDAY. LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES
    SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL RECEIVE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
    TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS H8 TEMPS OF MINUS 15C TO
    MINUS 20C CROSS THE REGION.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you talking in the Metro Rochester area?

      Delete
    2. Snowdog is not accurate with his post. The traditional areas are in line for LES snow not the metro area.

      Delete
    3. Wrong Anon. This is right from the NWS out of Buffalo.

      Delete
  43. When you say moderate to potentially heavy LES -- what is the estimate as to inches. Have to travel on Sunday, and wondering if plans should be rearranged.

    ReplyDelete
  44. That is not my post. That is from the NWS out of Buffalo. The winds will veer to the NW on Sunday and Sunday night hitting the lake shore counties.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks -- as Stacy reported for Sunday that it might be a good chance for light, snow across the area; but not the moderate to potentially heavy snow. Just wanted to know which is correct for that Sunday travel plans could be started.

      Delete
  45. Still much too soon to talk specific snowfall amounts for the Sunday-Monday timeframe but it does look like the city will be in line for some lake effect during this time.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Still much too soon to talk specific snowfall amounts for the Sunday-Monday timeframe but it does look like the city will be in line for some lake effect during this time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How much is my backyard going to get to the nearest thousandth of an inch?

      Delete
    2. Trick question. You don't have a backyard.

      Delete
    3. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 30, 2015 at 11:01 PM

      Just try to get back before they turn the power to the fences back on. Ohhhh, yeah, that didn't end up well.

      Delete
    4. They really need a thumbs up button for this blog.

      Delete
  47. Hey, its raining again. LOL.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Bob Barker Banister BeautifulDecember 30, 2015 at 9:12 PM

    CCCC what do you think about the LES chances in the city Sunday night into Monday? I see possible big potential with the winds shifting NNW.

    ReplyDelete
  49. I'm not terribly impressed. The lack of an upper lakes connection with only moderate instability is a big drawback IMO. That doesn't preclude a period of accumulating snow however, and ratios look decent for a time too.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Replies
    1. What are you looking for a blizzard to not have to work.

      Delete
    2. Always have to work anon 12:00 maybe you were?

      Delete
  51. Still better than nothing. I do think an advisory level snowfall is within the range of possibilities.

    ReplyDelete
  52. I just thought with the lake being warm and getting the right wind direction we could get a good amount especially with what the NWS out of Buffalo wrote that Snowdog posted above.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Having a pronounced northerly component can actually be detrimental to heavy amounts. We want a well-aligned 300-310 flow to get a contribution from Georgian Bay. Too far past 310 and that contribution starts to shift west of Rochester, and we're left with lighter snows off of a short fetch.

    ReplyDelete
  54. I wish I lived in the Tug Hill:

    ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES TODAY...5 TO 9 INCHES TONIGHT...4
    TO 7 INCHES FRIDAY...6 TO 11 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...3 TO 6 INCHES
    SATURDAY IN PERSISTENT BANDS. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO
    18 INCHES ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND UP TO 2 FEET ACROSS THE
    TUG HILL PLATEAU.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 31, 2015 at 6:08 PM

      I don't live there, but own a place in NE Oswego County. I'll be up there this weekend. Trust me, that much snow gets old quick. One has to rake the roof...a lot of fun with the snow on the ground up to your waist...and buildings can collapse without such maintenance...it cost three times as much to have your parking areas plowed out compared to here...snowblowers are overwhelmed by the amount of snow...roads can be impassible for many hours, sometimes days in heavy lake effect events...outdoor activities including snowshoeing and cross country skiing are much more difficult...4WD vehicles practically a necessity. There is a reason why that area never was permanently settled. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the snow for snowmobiling, but IT IS A LOT OF WORK to live and/or own property with structures on them up there. OCCASIONAL large snow events, typical for this area, are much more manageable and tolerable.

      Delete
  55. Next week looks dry and boring again. When does this talked about stormy pattern kick in?

    ReplyDelete
  56. Snowdog, we aren't that far away. Drive there and rent a snowmobile.

    I don't recall anyone saying stormy patern yet. Colder yes it's here.

    ReplyDelete
  57. I believe we will have advisory lake snow on Sunday night and Monday. Some with the arctic front pushing that lake Ontario band south over us and then squalls on Monday. 4-8 inches not out of the question. Not a lot but more than we have seen so far in this wimpy winter.

    ReplyDelete
  58. There are two specific time frames that I'm looking at for possible storm activity. The first is January 8-10th, which right now looks like the lesser opportunity. The second is January 11-13th, which I like better at the moment owing to a more favorable longwave trough position and ensemble MSLP spread. Naturally it's far too soon to begin discussing whether a storm will even exist during either time frame, let alone if we'll get any snow from them. These are windows of opportunity and nothing more.

    Once again I'll be gone for a few days, this time fore New Years shenanigans in Connecticut. I hope to be greeted by lake snow headlines when I get back.

    ReplyDelete
  59. There will not be much lake effect in Monroe county this weekend. The favorite areas will get hit pretty good but that is all. I agree we at least have to keep an eye on the week of the 11th.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Maybe not much. But that band off of Erie is currently whitening my lawn in Monroe county. I'm actually home and it looks pretty out. That calm snow globe look I love about Rochester.

      It's ok if we don't pick up inches of snow. I'm just glad to see snow at all after last month.

      Delete
    2. Agreed. It actually looks like winter outside. Lawn completely covered. This was a pleasant surprise.

      Delete
  60. Wow, Monday's high may only be in the teens!

    Winter seems to be arriving for the new year as many predicted.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Just looks cold Sunday into Monday without much LES. Plus cold mid January without a lot of organized storms. Still on pace for a record setting low snow total for the season.

    ReplyDelete
  62. I see a modest amount of lake effect Sunday into Monday and loads of storm activity in the eastern CONUS after next week. Actually counted no fewer than 4 organized storm systems on the most recent GFS run, and a quick glance at the earlier runs yields about 3-5 on average. Pretty much a minefield of low centers in the ensembles...some are clippers and some are larger systems. No more talk of snow futility records unless we somehow completely dodge every decent snow opportunity through the 21st.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Again it will come next week and the week after that the pattern will be changing. CCCC continues to keep hope alive. Fact is the recent models show warm temperatures and very little snow in the short and long range. Not sure what people are looking at?

      Delete
    2. That is after the cold air Monday and Tuesday with very little snow.

      Delete
    3. What do you consider long range? Next Saturday?

      Delete
    4. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016010212/gfs-ens_T2ma5d_us_1.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016010212/gfs-ens_T2ma5d_us_2.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016010212/gfs-ens_T2ma5d_us_3.png

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016010212/gem-ens_T2ma5d_us_1.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016010212/gem-ens_T2ma5d_us_2.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016010212/gem-ens_T2ma5d_us_3.png

      "warm temperatures"

      There's something I'd like anon to do for his own good:

      http://enchroma.com/test/instructions/

      Still lots of storm activity in the models and ensembles.

      Delete
  63. Besides Sunday and Monday, the 8th-11th look to have potential.

    ReplyDelete
  64. All 10 is focusing on is Wind Chill and bitter cold -- you think those of us who have not lived in WNY forget that it gets pretty cold during the winter. No mention of LES for Sunday into Monday.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Kevin Williams ✔ @whec_kwilliams

      Very fine, lake enhanced snowfall in #ROC area now will make some surfaces slick, esp. 2ndry. Fluffier lake snow w/ arctic air Sun pm/Mon.

      Delete
  65. CCCC, Is there another model similar to this one http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015121612&fh=222&xpos=0&ypos=169

    that uses a different model?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TT has snow maps for the GGEM (labelled there as CMC), NAM, ARW, NMM and RGEM. PivotalWeather has snow maps for the GFS, GGEM and NAM. InstantWeatherMaps has snow maps for the GFS, NAM and RAP. And Meteocentre has liquid equivalency maps for a variety of precip types for the GFS, GGEM and RGEM.

      Delete
  66. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gis/images/NE_Snow.png

    ReplyDelete
  67. Lake Snow Advisory in effect for 3-6 inches.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Bob Barker Bannister BeautifulJanuary 2, 2016 at 4:24 PM

    Going to be bitter cold too because I believe air temps in the teens and winds 20 to 35 mph at times. Is that correct CCCC?

    ReplyDelete
  69. We could definitely have subzero wind chills, although we aren't looking at 20-35 mph wind speeds.

    ReplyDelete
  70. That wedge of yellow in Wayne County for 6-8" will hopefully make snowdog happy!

    ReplyDelete
  71. We are finally going to get some snow. I just wish it was not going to be back in the 40's by weeks end. Lets enjoy the snow while we have it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not going to be much Snowdog. The ingredients are not present for good LES in any areas. Maybe an inch or two by Monday in most areas.

      Delete
  72. The only ingredient we lack is an upper lakes connection. If we had that then there would be a warning instead of an advisory. As it is I can see 2-4 inches for most.

    ReplyDelete
  73. This is what the NWS is saying:

    "BY SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM 320-330 DEGREES WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -10C SUNDAY MORNING TO -14C BY SUNDAY EVENING AND -20C BY MONDAY MORNING. LAKE SNOWS WILL BE REDIRECTED TO THE SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES AND ALTHOUGH THE COLD LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...LESS THAN 3KFT FOR MOST OF THE TIME...AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERMIT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 6KFT TO 7KFT TO BUILD THE DEPTH OF EACH LAKE SNOW CELL. WELL ALIGNED MEAN LAYER FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD PRODUCE DISCRETE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...STREETS OF CLOUDS...WITH ON AND OFF SNOWY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRIES MORE WITH A STRONGER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BY MONDAY EVENING WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BUT MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS INTO TUESDAY."

    ReplyDelete
  74. What in the world does that mean?

    ReplyDelete

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