ALWAYS WARMEST EAST OF LOW PRESSURE
Written By: Scott Hetsko
Low pressure will ride just to our West this evening which will bring rain and milder air to our area. Winds are counter clockwise around low pressure and whenever you are on the East side of a storm you are usually warmer then those who are on the West side of the system.
We'll hit the 70s tomorrow and Wednesday afternoon before much cooler air arrives to start October Friday and into the weekend.
Scott,
ReplyDeleteDid you happen to catch the 12z run of the NAM? If this pans out, we'd be talking about widespread...and potentially severe flooding! I wouldn't mention it if it wasn't so close..relatively speaking. Hour 54 isn't that far off.
If I read the 12Z NAM right our 54 hrs it isn't that bad as the 12Z GFS. You are correct, normally this close with a model run confidence would be high but we are talking about a potential tropical or sub tropical system.
ReplyDeleteI expect the models will have a very hard time with what will eventually be Tropical Storm Nicole over the next 24 to 36 hours. My recommendation is to take each model run with a grain of salt until Nicole forms and more information is gathered on this storm
I prefer the consensus which still races this system North with Rochester getting a period of rain Thursday. Heaviest rain will fall from I-81 East. NAM is wrong primarily because there is NO upper level support (trough) which results in this system slowing as NAM predicts. Rain yes, severe flooding...nope.
ReplyDeleteScott