GET USED TO LOOKING AT THIS
Wowza! So this next 7-day stretch will for the most part hang well below normal, and hidden in there is even the potential for a first FREEZE (that being early Monday morning.) But what grabs my attention is how the models are looking at the pattern ahead. We've been forming our winter out look, and La Nina is a big feature of that forecast. These are the years where Alberta Clippers can bring puffs of good snow frequently, along with east coast dips in temperature. If you look at this image, you notice the 540 (blue hashed line) is deep into the Ohio Valley by early next Wednesday. This supports the thoughts for the cold. This is a setup we could see quite a few times over the course of this winter with a west coast ridge/east coast trough split.
Now, this is only the Euro's depiction of the forthcoming events. If you were to look at the GFS run for the same time, it paints quite a different picture. The GFS sees it as a much less amplified cool-down at that time with the 540 line way north of us into eastern Canada. Ahh the joys of weather forecasting!
No matter what though, it's a safe bet to say that Sunday night (trick-or treat time) will be one of the coldest ones in recent times. The daytime high on Sunday is only 45, and once that sun goes down, we'll be into the 30's in no time. So be sure to dress those little ones, and yourself, warm!
As a fan of cold and snow, I like the western ridge / eastern trough idea. But along with this colder air that is setting in w/in the next week, there seems to be very little precip to show for it. We only had decent precip when it was warm out. I hope you're not suggesting that we'll have one of those winters where when it's cold enough to snow, nothing falls from the sky...and when it's too warm for snow, the clouds let loose with rain.
ReplyDeleteWith that said, though, have you noticed that the last hand full of runs of the GFS are suggesting a fundamental pattern shift toward the middle of November. They suggest the nation's first try shot of widespread cold air by around Nov.11 and beyond. It just seems to be a question as to what "angle" that cold air comes in. Does it crash into the Rockies or spill into great lakes? I think the second half of November might get interesting.
To the first poster, you should re-read Bob's post:
ReplyDelete"These are the years where Alberta Clippers can bring puffs of good snow frequently, along with east coast dips in temperature."
Alberta clippers when you get the lakes involved can really add up around here. I'd rather rely on those than the nor'easters that miss us 90 percent of the time. I think a good snow season is ahead, but that's just me.
These are the types of patterns that yield a cold, hard start to winter which then ends warm. I wouldn't be surprised if November activity picks up quickly after the 10th or so.
ReplyDeleteI have nowhere near the expertise that Bob, Brian and Scott have, but I have to agree that I think November will come at us hard during the second half, and it will continue through December. After that, who knows. But I think December may be one of those years where we see 40" or more in just that month alone. Probably only about 6" or so for November as it will get off to a slow start intitially, and I think when the pattern changes it will be more of a Buffalo snow month with a lot of WSW wind events.
ReplyDeleteI asked this before but never got an answer. Do ordinary rain gauges from like walmart give an accurate reading? I want the most accurate rain gauge I can get without having to spend tons of money. Also, are those electronic home weather stations that electronically record rain measurements and wind speed accurate? I'd really like to have a little weather station for my home but I don't want to spend all this money of it's totally inaccurate.
ReplyDeleteSorry about not getting back to you, some emails get lost in the shuffle. As long as you put the gauge in an open area and check it daily, you'll find them to be reliable. You don't need to spend hundreds but if you wish to keep track then you'll need to take daily observations. Most rain gauges measure up to 5" so that'll work fine for you.
ReplyDeleteIf you are looking to spend a few more bucks for more data, David weather stations do a fine job
Thanks, Scott!
ReplyDeleteHeavy graupel fell at my house just NE of the city. It was brief but intense. Light accumulation on the base of trees and on branches. Any other graupel reports?
ReplyDeleteHad only rain at my house in Henrietta this morning
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