THE HILLS GET DUSTED TONIGHT
Written by: Bob MetcalfeSay it ain't so! Sadly it is. Winter becomes a *brief* reality late tonight with a few of those higher elevations seeing a coating up to an inch or so by Saturday morning. Temperatures as of now are holding near 40 so once the sun goes down and numbers get into the mid 30s, the transition to wet, heavy snow will be likely. I'd expect 8-9pm or so to start the transition.
Fortunately for us, the bulk of this east coast mess is well east of our area. We're really lying on the westernmost fringes of the storm. Because of this, the rain/snow will come in waves at times overnight.
The weather improves quickly and drastically though just in time for the weekend. Saturday serves as the go-between day with slow clearing but still chilly air. By Sunday the sun is prolific with air temperatures warming back to the 50 point or even above. Next week looks spectacular with mid 50s and a whole lotta' sun goin' on!
What ever happened to the lake effect snow possibilities for tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteBob, what's with all this "sadly" and "fortunately" talk? Are you a closeted snow-hater?
ReplyDeleteJust not cold enough aloft for lake effect effect to crank well. Marginal at best and marginal is not good enough!
ReplyDeleteDon't worry folks, it's only early November. Just a little too early - simple as that. Late November into December and January is when it will really count. And like I said before, this warm air next week will help keep the lake's free fall in check...at least temporarilly.
ReplyDeleteThe warm air next week is a prelude to how this winter will go. Storms pass to our West and warm us up. The front comes through with rain and then a little lake effect snow for some. The cold air will last maybe a few days and then we warm up again due to the next storm passing to our west. If your not in a lake effect area I think this winter may be a bust. It will be another nickle and dime year I am afraid.
ReplyDeleteI think the winter pattern is already established. I am not a professional, probably not even an amateur meteorologist, but I do keep a close eye on the weather. The several days of cold, followed by a few days with above average temps, then a return to cold again is how I see this winter going. As for snowfall, who knows? The winds now seem to be predominately W and NW during the cold stretches, which bodes well for lake effect.
ReplyDeleteI agree Chris. Lots of swings this winter. Scott has mentioned that we'll have lots of swings, as well. After this upcoming spell of very warm indian summer, it looks like a topsy turvy pattern will once again. But I think once we get toward the end of November those cold spells will be less marginal, and more conducive to plain old snow at their peak. It also looks like we may get into a pattern of lows (some of them vigorous) dropping down from Canada. That will turn on the lake snow machines in a big way - first across Buffalo as they approach from the west, and then across Rochester and points east as they pass to our east and spill in even colder air. Once these lows start crossing, they'll carve out a good snow cover, which will further help keep our region "refridgerated." Soon, those lows will cross when cold is already well in place, so no worries of mix - just pure snow.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I expect this pattern to show itself around the final week of November...then look out. December will see 40" of snow or more in Rochester.