COLDER YES, SNOW? NOT NECESSARILY
Written by: Brian Neudorff
As expected cold air arrives Friday into Saturday with Saturday's high temperatures only getting into the upper 30s. If we don't climb out of the 30s, Saturday will be the coldest day since March 26 when the high was 33.
Now with all this cold the question remains, what about snow? As it appears now, most of us will only see a brief dusting Friday night into early Saturday morning, if that. Couple reasons for this. Although it will be cold, the ground is still warm so any period of snow we see Friday night into Saturday morning will just melt. Temperatures into Saturday morning don't fall much below freezing at lower elevations. It appears the best place to see a couple of inches of snow will be along the Chautauqua Ridge off of Lake Erie and also the higher elevations above 3,000 feet.
Does Rochester see any snow? I think it is possible for a small period late Friday night into Saturday morning but with this coastal storm quickly moving to the north-northeast. Drier air trying to work in on Saturday there doesn't appear to be much time for any real accumulation. I do think we see flakes in and around Rochester just not ready to measure it in inches just yet.
So I should put my yard stick back in the closet for a few more weeks? OK I guess i'll just have to be patient.
ReplyDeleteOne cool thing - we're supposed to get on the warm side of a very expansive ridge of warmth starting next week. Why is that cool for us snow lovers? Well hear me out, as we're learning today, it's just hard to get much snow accumulation this early in the season. Sun angle is still just a little too high. It's just too early - simple as that. It's not till late november / early december that we can get snow "easily" without requiring 850s to plunge WAY below freezing. So instead of allowing our lake temps to free fall like they've been. Let's embrace the warm air now so the lakes can at least retain some of their precious heat energy for the big shows later in the winter. The warmer air will do just that. Otherwise, if we keep this cold up with little to show for, we'll have well below average great lakes when we'll want them as warm as can be...and when it matters. In Dec and Jan, the air temp difference between the lake water and 5,000 ft up is critical. 12c difference, very cold but forget about snow. 14c difference, still cold, but better charge up the snow blowers.
Does anybody notice how, shall we say, enthusiastic the National Weather Service has been about this warming next week? In their text discussion, you would think that we were about to shatter records and hit unpreeidented warm levels. They even "title" their long range discussion, which they don't usually do, to state: "Significant warming will take place during this period."
ReplyDeleteAnd yet, when we were expecting these temps later this week, which are some 10-13 degrees below average, they poo-poo it, and call it "seasonably cool."
Scott,
Does the NWS have a bit of a "warm bias." ? It's almost like they don't want us to notice the below average cold, but go out of their way to mention a dozen times how we'll be 10 degrees above average next week. What gives?
I don't know about a bias but I think the extra exuberance is because warmer air is more welcome than colder air. Just a guess. Speaking of chill, still looks like some wet snowflakes for the area tomorrow night on the back edge of that system along the coast. Looking at thickness levels between 1000-850mb, we should be getting some flakes so long as there is precipitation in the area after 4PM. Lake snow shower are also possible between Friday night and early Saturday morning.
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