SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
Written By: Scott Hetsko
Now that we're 72 hours away from the potential for lake effect, we have a better idea of what temperatures aloft will be as well as wind direction off the lake. As colder air pours South Friday evening, lake snow showers will increase and continue into Saturday morning.
Temperatures at about 5,000 will be -8 to -12C by 7am Saturday morning. This should be plenty cold enough to develop rising air and snow showers. I don't expect a huge amount of snow but the areas in BLUE on our map are most likely to get an accumulating, nuisance snowfall. Strong high pressure will shut off all lake effect and provide a more sunny second half of the weekend. Remember your Winter driving skills if you're headed out on slick roads Friday evening. We always get a ton of accidents with the first snowfall!
You said it, Scott. Everybody be careful out there Friday night. I'm sure you know from being around a news room with police/fire scanners blasting all day long that once we get that first snow, the scanner lights up with call after call. It's hard to follow any one call because of so much radio traffic. On a lighter note, this is pretty exciting stuff. A lot of people may be out on the town Friday night to see their first flakes. 1-4 isn't much (though 4 would add some extra excitement for the first snowfall), but it will sure give a wintry feel come Saturday morning.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteWhat point on Friday do you think whatever rain or mixed precip we have will officially turn over to pure snow? Will there be any sort of short waves or anything like that to help "flare up" the lake effect snow overnight Friday?
i really hope we get a good amount of snow come Friday night even though on Halloween there was some flurries and sleet and rain
ReplyDeleteHonestly, even Scott's low end of about 1" would be pretty exciting. Imaging going out to the movies or somthing on Friday evening and leaving the theatre to an inch of snow on your car and sticking to the grass and trees, with snow still falling. C'mon, tell me that won't be exciting, even it's just an inch.
ReplyDeleteI would expect a full changeover to occur in the early evening Friday. There will be a vort max coming in overnight which may enhance the snow showers a bit.
ReplyDeleteHmmm, anybody notice the big jump that the latest 18z run of the NAM took? Now it has a low taking a much more easterly track, with maybe some synoptic snow from Rochester east. Two things that makes me skeptical: the NAM is not the preferred model when handling these storms, and it isn't a more reliable run like the 12z or 0z. But interesting nonetheless.
ReplyDelete***mis-type: more westerly track....Not easterly.
ReplyDelete