NOVEMBER COMES IN COLD & HEARING SOMETHING ABOUT A STORM?
Written by: Brian Neudorff
Although it wasn't much it was something and October ended with a trace of snow. It made for a very uncomfortable trick-or-treating, but I will be honest it was fun to see. Thankfully it didn't really pick up until we had just a few more doors to go to.
Now that the cold is here it will be with us for the first couple of days of November. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s Monday and Tuesday. Fortunately we won't see any snow or rain thanks to a strong area of high pressure over the Great Lakes.
Eventually this high pressure moves east allowing for warmer temperatures Wednesday into Thursday as highs reach near 50.
Above graphics are from two computer models from 00z runs of both the GFS and European models for Thursday night. There are some differences with this storm coming up the east coast. One thing I notice is they are not as strong as previous runs and their location of the center are also different. 
What I feel confident about the end of the week and into the weekend is that it will be colder, there will be chances of snow as well as rain Thursday night into Friday and possibly Saturday. I am not too excited about this storm but it definitely needs to be monitored as we get more and more information on it. Stay tuned.
Yea, i'm not too excited about this storm, myself. It's still just a bit too early in the season to expect anything TOO snowy at lower elevations. It does seem between now and the next two to three weeks is that critical time when 850s don't need to get way down below zero C for snow anymore. By about November 15th, we only need to get down to about -6C to see mostly snow even at lower elevations. Anyway, does it look like we have a shot of some lake effect later Friday into Saturday on the backside of this system? I can't tell if a cold, moist flow is expected by then to support some LES or not?
ReplyDeletespeaking of 850's, the GFS still has us down to -10C on Saturday. If that verifies, wouldn't we struggle to hit 35 degrees with whatever does fall being pure snow?
ReplyDeleteNWS still going with mid / upper 40's right through the weekend. Seems like they've completely discounted the GFS at this point because there is NO way we'll see 45 on Saturday and 48 on Sunday, as they have forecasted, if 850's drop to -10. The GFS even has the -10 line coming in by Friday night. I predict we'll wake up Saturday morning to snow on the ground. In my interpretation, it looks like Friday night into early Saturday could be down right nasty with snow and some blowing snow on a stiff NW wind. Even if there's limited moisture, we'd be looking at about a 20C difference between lake temp and 5,000 ft up. Just my two cents, but I may be wrong.
ReplyDeleteAnybody know if the latest 12z ECMWF has trended to the colder solution, as well? Now that we're within 4 days of the storm, if that euro starts agreeing with the GFS, it will really raise confidence in a colder solution. And by the way, The Weather Channel has plunged our high to 37 for Saturday with ALL snow. They must have picked up on the latest GFS run.
ReplyDeleteUsually 4 to 6 days out we like to lean towards the EURO. From the last time I looked (00z) it was the warmest of the 2 and was most consistent from run to run. It has been the model of choice for anything beyond
ReplyDeleteUsually (as we see time and time again) the GFS will be gang busters then start to moderate warmer and warmer. You have to also account for the time of year and what may be the most likely scenario.
We can all speculate or "Wish-cast" but in the end we really won't know until we get to late Tuesday into Wednesday.
The speculation game is a fun one so love to hear everyone's personal opinions and why.
I just checked what I think is the 12z run of the euro off of the penn state e-wall. I believe that it has jumped on board with the GFS. IF that is true, it may be a nice victory for our GFS. And, it may mean a colder solution. The NWS has also returned snow back into the forecast...include just plain SNOW for Friday night. They haven't updated their forecast discussion yet, though. We'll miss the main storm probably, but a little lake effect snow would be nice.
ReplyDeleteWe'll get some modest lake effect snow showers Friday and Saturday. Elevations may get a small 1-3" amounts otherwise not too much although very chilly. We probably won't reach 40 Saturday and be lucky to get there on Friday as well.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
I know it's early, but at this point, what does it look like will be lacking for more potent lake effect? Will temps 5,000 ft up be colder during this upcoming event than, say, last night when we saw upper 30's with graupel?
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised there's even a call for rain with 850 temps expected to drop to -10 to -12. I looked back on NWS Buffalo's lake effect page to see what 850 temps were during lake effect snow events during this time of year. A few years ago buffalo received 2.5" of snow at the airport (on the lake plain / low elevation) on the same day that the cold air is forecasted to come in this year. 850 temps then were between -5 and -6.
ReplyDeleteI don't disagree about the potential for some minor lake effect snow Friday night into Saturday but that will also depend on the amount of cyclonic flow is in the region as well. It's not as simple as cold air over warmer lake water. There's a lot more to lake effect snow forecasting than that.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
Understood, Scott. And I confess to wish-casting. Hopefully we'll get some snow, but time will tell and I know your team will keep us updated along the way.
ReplyDeleteNo problem I meant my response in a good way just to let everyone know that's it's a little complicated. We're looking closely everyday we get closer and who knows, maybe that first accumulating lake snow is in the cards. Time will tell!
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko