ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST ON MONDAY
Written By: Scott Hetsko
Cold air will return this weekend with some modest lake snow showers especially North and East on Saturday. A developing storm in the heartland will begin moving toward Western New York Sunday evening. A warm front will approach resulting in light snow to break out in the area Sunday night. As warmer air works North, I expect a changeover to at least sleet in Rochester and more likely freezing rain South.
This storm is another quick mover and most of the precipitation in whatever form will wind down by lunchtime on Monday. Following the passage of this storm, very cold air returns on Tuesday with an strong area of high pressure squashing any lake effect quickly. We'll track and update the forecast for Monday through the weekend. Good things it's President's Day, many people will be off the roads. Enjoy the weekend!
Scott,
ReplyDeleteI'm sure you and your colleagues love a good challenge. There's no shortage of them here with WNY weather. But it's got to get a little aggrevating that you mets always seem to have to carefully watch that pesky rain/snow line that always seems to setup right across our viewing area. As a viewer and weather enthusiast, these "high bust potential" forecasts are tough to watch play out. I can't imagine being the expert in charge of going over all the data, producing the forecast and delivering it to the public.
I just wanted you to know that your hard work doesn't go un-noticed.
so low is going to be more north? Looking at others they have it more south with most of western NY with 3-6 inches from Sunday through Sunday night. Some have the low more to the south/east. Just putting it out there. Hopefully no ice!
ReplyDeleteI do not understand previous posts that said it was going to be very active next week and the week after. It looks pretty quiet after Monday please explain DK??
ReplyDeleteI'm assuming you're the same person who keeps saying storms are going to miss when they're clearly not. So, all i'm going ot say is look at the models yourself, Anonymous. If you can't understand what you're looking at, that's your problem. Or just watch Scott Hetsko's forecasts.
ReplyDeleteChannel 13 states 6 inches or more. I will go with Scott and go with a mix. A freezing rain storm would be cool. Dan
ReplyDeleteYou know it's really not that hard to make up a name of your own on this blog. Why are people still posting an anonymous? Seems a little shady, to me.
ReplyDeleteI think this is going to be another storm where numbers are adjusted 3 hours out! And next week is definitely going to be active anon, just look at the end of next week!!!
ReplyDeleteModels will probably waffle around between 6 hour runs. I won't feel good about snow and sleet amounts until Sunday PM at the earliest. If all snow then 6" is a good forecast. Most of the snow will fall with isentropic lift ahead of the warm front.
ReplyDeleteScott
If the isentropic snow ends up being our main source of precip, would that be due to the fact that the storm will be weakening, or does it have to do with the storm track?
ReplyDeleteDK, how do you post your name. I have tried, but I cannot get it to work. Thanks. Dan
ReplyDeleteThat has to do with warmer air lifting over cold low level air. The system is moving quick so that "lift" between 1-9am early Monday is our best shot.
ReplyDeleteScott
Click the drop down bar beside the "comment as" section underneath the window where you type your comments. Then just choose "name/url", and type in the name you choose, then click "continue".
ReplyDeleteYou don't have to include a URL. I think that's what is throwing people off. They think they have to include a website so they don't do it.
Test
ReplyDeleteThanks DK. Got it.
ReplyDeleteNWS NOT IMPRESSED WITH THIS MINOR STORM. THEY SAY MAYBE ADVISORY LEVEL AT MOST WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 OF WATER EQUIVELENT. NBD
ReplyDeleteI LOVE IT THE NWS OUT OF BINGHAMPTON CALLS IT A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM. HOW CAN THERE BE SUCH A DIFFERENCE IN INTERPRETATION OF THE SAME MODELS?
ReplyDeleteA POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
Not sure why some get so defensive on the blog. I was just questioning the fact that is going to get very active and stormy next week and the week after. I do not see that on the models. In fact I do not see much after Monday. In fact Scott said last night the same thing on his forecast. Just trying to get information not questioning anyones ability.
ReplyDeleteLatest on the upcoming storm. Looks to be all snow for Rochester but a mix South possible. If all snow, 4-8" possible here with lesser amounts in the Southern Tier. Quick mover, cold air follows. Not a blockbuster but a decent little snowfall coming.
ReplyDeleteScott
Scott,
ReplyDeleteWill most of it fall overnight Sunday or will this one continue into Mon.?
Same story for us in the southerntier, less snow. Maybe next season will be our season for snowmobiling. Thanks for the update Scott.
ReplyDeleteModerate Snow Fall in Newark. We are probably up to 4 inches so far. I was driving from Sodus down RT 88 and it was a sheet of ice the whole way. If you are out on the road be very careful. Its bad out there.
ReplyDeleteNear whiteout conditions in Irondequoit today. Here's some youtube footage of it from this morning:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1lG-Ox_XNU
So with 4-8 will they issue a winter Storm watch or advisory. 6 inches or more is a warning, correct.
ReplyDeleteJust a dusting in Hilton, but the wind!! Crazy!! We were up most the night listening to it howl, and looked out to assess the damage in the morning. Our wooden swing set was leveled and our pool cover was torn off. It looks like a tornado went through! Our next door neighbor's window shattered this afternoon. It is 6:30 pm and still going strong. Since there wasn't much mention of the wind on here, I'm guessing it wasn't as bad elsewhere?
ReplyDelete7" or more is Warning criteria. Anything over 3" but under 7" would qualify for an Advisory. 4 to 8 would probably warrant an Advisory, unless the National Weather Service thinks there is a much higher likelihood that most locations would pick up 7 or 8 inches rather than the lower end of that range.
ReplyDeleteMost of this is expected to fall overnight Sunday, and early Monday morning, with a few more inches possible during the day on Monday. It's another tricky forecast, with sleet in the mix, but right now it looks like it will be cold enough at all levels to support snow for counties bordering the lake. Stay tuned!
ReplyDelete- Stacey
The NWS states that they will go with advisory levels. I believe we will get some wrap around lake enhancement on Monday as well so 8 might not be out of the question. Not a BIG storm by any means. If it would slow down it would have been much bigger, but it is moving too fast.
ReplyDeleteThe models continue to print out good QPF, but the talk out of the NWS is that the models are over doing it. I do not get that. If they all print out an inch of water equivelant how can you go lower than what the models state?
ReplyDeleteAm I seeing things or by the end of nest week there looks to be a parade of storms that could affect us?
ReplyDeleteMore near whiteout conditions near Sea Breeze (Irondequoit) today:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=589FVw78QbM
I drove to Medina from home yesterday and back with a snowmobile trailer in tow. Wow, did the winds ever present a driving challenge, especially over the Bay Bridge. My SUV struggled to pull my small enclosed trailer head on into those west-northwest winds. I was being pushed all over the place and needed two firm hands on the wheel! West of the city, I ran into some heavy lake effect on 104 that slowed traffic below 30 mph for awhile.
ReplyDelete