PRESIDENTS' DAY STORM
Written by: Stacey Pensgen
The Presidents' Day storm will begin Sunday night, with light snow developing around sunset. Snow could become heavy at times overnight and into early Monday morning. At this point, it appears that most of the area will see a mainly snow event, with sleet mixing in well South of Rochester. Areas that do see all snow should record 4-8" of snow, with slightly lesser amounts where sleet is forecast to mix in.
The track and temperature profile of this sytem is another tricky one, and we will be keeping a close eye on it, and updating numbers as necessary.
THE NWS HAS ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ROCHESTER. THEY SAY THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL NOW BE SOUTH OF ROCHESTER. THE NEW NAM IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND EURO WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK NOW. CONGRATS FOR AREAS SOUTH. YOU WILL HAVE ALL SNOW THIS TIME.
ReplyDeleteI saw on accuweather on a map 6-12 from buffalo east and south. Lets hope all snow!
ReplyDeleteI have been anonomyous on here and not the one that dk was getting on for saying it another miss and such. I look at all channels and sites. Genesee county brought snow and very heavy winds today. Waiting for the next event!
So funny, the NWS chnages with the wind. Now they are in line with Stac'ys forecast above with 4-7. The 4 will be Rocheter and the 7 will be the higher terrain South of Rochester and Buffalo. This wil be a very minor event.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think DK with your latest update on this storm?
ReplyDeleteModels have come in much lower with QPF. 2-4 in Rochester is about all we will get from this weak system. The sun feels so good today. We need more sun.
ReplyDeleteTwo things either it is going to be a big deal or a dud. I say that because DK is quiet as a church mouse. That means he is either sharpening up the plow because of a big snowfall or he is ticked because it is a going to be weak and lees cash flow for the plowers.
ReplyDeleteWinter storm watch for Ontario county. Looks like south of Rochester will get the bigger snows finally. Good for them they are due. Not sure about the above map they have north getting more snow?
ReplyDelete12:30 update from NWS....12Z RUNS COMING IN SLIGHTLY
ReplyDeleteCOLDER AND A TOUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH TONIGHT`S SYSTEM. THIS MAY
LEAD TO HIGHER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS SRN TIER AND A POSSIBLE
UPGRADE. CONVERSELY...SLIGHTLY LESSER AMTS POSSIBLE NEARER LK
ONTARIO AS GRADIENT WILL BE SHARPER.
Any thoughts from DK or the News 8 weather team about this?
No chance of rain and 60 from this?
ReplyDeleteStill a tough forecast, with such a tight snowfall gradient, and still the possibility of a mix south. But, looking at the latest runs, models are *slightly* more south, which appears to hold the heaviest snow just to the south of Rochester, with a mix possible near the PA border. Still crunching the numbers now, but snowfall will probably be adjusted slightly.
ReplyDeleteAnd no, no rain and 60 from this...yet. Hang in there, we'll get there!
- Stacey
It will be a moderate storm for areas South of Rochester and along the PA.NY border. All the models have drastically reduced the QPF for Rochester. 2-4 inches in Rochester with 6-10 South of 5/20 to the border. No big deal for Rochester.
ReplyDeleteWeatherdan, you sound eerily familiar, almost andrew-like. But 2-4 inches is little low for the metro. Probably going to be a 4-6 inch snowfall for most, with possibly a little lake enhancement thrown in. I have seen it countless times where everyone says the parameters aren't in place to favor lake enhanced snow, only to see a couple extra inches via ontario. However, I do agree with you saying it will not be a big deal, we deal with snow constantly around here, it takes a true blizzard to create problems in western NY.
ReplyDeleteI'm south of 5/20 so 6-10 for me. Won't be a big deal but the side roads and in the country and routes like 63 it could get interesting.
ReplyDeleteWeatherguy, I am nothing like our Mr. Andrew. I was reading the talk out of the NWS. They are even considering dropping the weather advisories for us in Rochester. QPF at .30 and the wet snow that will fall will most likely only give us a 2-4 inch snow fall here. We will see though. For the first time our friends in the Southern Tier will get a good snow fall this year. Happy for those guys. Enjoy!!!
ReplyDelete