THE DIFFERENCE 100 MILES CAN MAKE
Written by: Brian Neudorff
Below are the numbers from central New York from the snow they received. If this storm was 100 miles more west it would be a different situation for all of us. I know many in Geneva, Newark, Lyons wishes this storm was 30 to 50 miles more west (Or at least the ones who like snow)
One thing I saw was a lot of people wanted to call this a bust. I disagree. Most of us got the low end of the forecast. Yes it wasn't the 8 but many did see near the 4. This kind of snow that falls from the morning into the afternoon is hard to measure because some melts during the day. That is why there was so much slush and even lots of water that eventually froze last night.
Also want people to know that this blog is supplemental to the actual forecast found on the front weather page. If you just look at the blog sure you get our thoughts but like the forecast discussion by the NWS it can change. Weather does that, it changes and no matter how good a model handles one storm it can blow the forecast with the next one.
Below are the numbers from central New York from the snow they received. If this storm was 100 miles more west it would be a different situation for all of us. I know many in Geneva, Newark, Lyons wishes this storm was 30 to 50 miles more west (Or at least the ones who like snow)
One thing I saw was a lot of people wanted to call this a bust. I disagree. Most of us got the low end of the forecast. Yes it wasn't the 8 but many did see near the 4. This kind of snow that falls from the morning into the afternoon is hard to measure because some melts during the day. That is why there was so much slush and even lots of water that eventually froze last night.
Also want people to know that this blog is supplemental to the actual forecast found on the front weather page. If you just look at the blog sure you get our thoughts but like the forecast discussion by the NWS it can change. Weather does that, it changes and no matter how good a model handles one storm it can blow the forecast with the next one.
New York
...BROOME COUNTY...
VESTAL CENTER 21.0 806 AM 3/07
CONKLIN 21.0 806 AM 3/07
KATTELLVILLE 19.5 740 AM 3/07
1 WNW BINGHAMTON 18.0 715 AM 3/07
JOHNSON CITY 18.0 500 AM 3/07 RIVER BILLY PARK
WHITNEY POINT 17.5 604 AM 3/07
BINGHAMTON 17.0 856 AM 3/07
WHITNEY POINT DAM 16.0 700 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
NWS BINGHAMTON 15.5 712 AM 3/07
2 SW BINGHAMTON 15.0 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
2 SSW BINGHAMTON 14.5 645 AM 3/07
1 NNW ENDWELL 14.0 631 AM 3/07
1 W ENDICOTT 13.4 844 AM 3/07
8 SE WINDSOR 7.5 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
...CAYUGA COUNTY...
AUBURN 10.3 700 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 W LOCKE 8.0 746 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
...CHEMUNG COUNTY...
1 WNW ELMIRA 15.0 600 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
ENE VAN ETTEN 14.0 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
1 ESE ELMIRA 13.0 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
ELMIRA OBSERVER 12.0 700 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 W HORSEHEADS 11.0 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
...CHENANGO COUNTY...
4 NNE SHERBURNE 24.6 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
SHERBURNE 23.0 730 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
NORWICH 14.5 855 AM 3/07
5 W NORWICH 14.5 720 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
AFTON 14.0 558 AM 3/07
OXFORD 13.0 605 AM 3/07
...CORTLAND COUNTY...
MARATHON 19.5 857 AM 3/07
CORTLAND 17.0 842 AM 3/07
2 SW FREETOWN 10.0 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
1 NW MARATHON 5.0 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
...DELAWARE COUNTY...
1 W MASONVILLE 11.0 902 AM 3/07 SPOTTER
WALTON 10.0 545 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
DEPOSIT 8.0 700 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
4 SSE ROXBURY 6.5 711 AM 3/07
DEPOSIT 5.0 605 AM 3/07
1 W HANCOCK 3.5 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
...MADISON COUNTY...
ATWELL CORNERS 25.5 836 AM 3/07 SPOTTER
2 SW MUNNSVILLE 25.5 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
ONEIDA 22.0 827 AM 3/07
1 NNE ONEIDA 22.0 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
1 S CAZENOVIA 21.5 841 AM 3/07
1 S CANASTOTA 21.2 645 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
MORRISVILLE 21.0 700 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
CHITTENANGO 20.5 856 AM 3/07
1 E ABELL CORNERS 20.0 902 AM 3/07
2 NNW NELSON 20.0 744 AM 3/07
ORISKANY FALLS 20.0 821 AM 3/07
1 N ONEIDA 18.0 339 AM 3/07 LIGHTNING AND THUNDER
...ONEIDA COUNTY...
CLAYVILLE 24.5 843 AM 3/07 WKTV-TV
NNW VERNON 24.0 800 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
CHADWICKS 24.0 845 AM 3/07 WKTV-TV
SAUQUOIT 22.0 850 AM 3/07 WKTV
1 S UTICA 19.0 851 AM 3/07 WKTV
UTICA 18.8 700 AM 3/07
4 NNW DURHAMVILLE 18.0 600 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
NEW HARTFORD 18.0 845 AM 3/07 WKTV
WHITESBORO 15.5 820 AM 3/07
1 E ROME 14.5 802 AM 3/07
2 NW WHITESBORO 13.8 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
5 SSE ROME 13.4 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
WESTMORELAND 13.4 824 AM 3/07 WKTV
4 N WESTMORLAND COOP 13.4 700 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 SE POINT ROCK 12.2 730 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
POINT ROCK 12.2 822 AM 3/07 WKTV
2 SSW BOONVILLE 10.6 700 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 NNW STITTVILLE 8.9 740 AM 3/07
...ONONDAGA COUNTY...
KIRKVILLE 18.0 730 AM 3/07
1 WSW DE WITT 17.0 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
2 WSW TULLY 16.0 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
TULLY 15.0 732 AM 3/07
2 E MARCELLUS 14.5 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
3 ESE VILLAGE GREEN 10.0 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
LIVERPOOL 10.0 827 AM 3/07
1 W CAMILLUS 9.0 600 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
BREWERTON BLO LOCK 2 8.5 715 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
5 NW CLAY 8.0 730 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
...OTSEGO COUNTY...
SOUTH NEW BERLIN 21.0 807 AM 3/07 SPOTTER
RICHFIELD SPRINGS 20.4 850 AM 3/07 WKTV
COOPERSTOWN 20.0 738 AM 3/07
HARTWICK 20.0 732 AM 3/07
4 SSE BRIDGEWATER 17.8 830 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
ONEONTA 14.0 700 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 N UNADILLA 13.0 700 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
ONEONTA 12.1 440 AM 3/07
...SCHUYLER COUNTY...
BURDETT 15.0 615 AM 3/07
2 SE SMITH VALLEY 13.4 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
4 SW MECKLENBURG 12.0 700 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
...STEUBEN COUNTY...
CORNING OBSERVER 15.1 700 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
5 S SOUTH CORNING 8.9 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
4 N AVOCA 5.5 500 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
HORNELL ALMOND DAM 5.0 700 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 NW HORNELL 4.8 807 AM 3/07 SPOTTER
...TIOGA COUNTY...
3 ESE APALACHIN 17.5 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
3 NE CANDOR 16.0 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
TIOGA TERRACE 15.0 550 AM 3/07 NWS EMPLOYEE
3 WSW OWEGO 14.4 700 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 N BERKSHIRE 14.0 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
2 SE RICHFORD 14.0 805 AM 3/07 SPOTTER
...TOMPKINS COUNTY...
2 SSE DANBY 16.0 730 AM 3/07
CAYUGA HEIGHTS 15.6 804 AM 3/07
2 NNE ITHACA 15.2 544 AM 3/07
1 S SLATERVILLE SPRI 14.3 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
1 ENE ENFIELD 14.0 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
1 NE FREEVILLE 14.0 800 AM 3/07 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 NE FREEVILLE 12.5 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
3 SSW GROTON 12.5 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
1 NW GROTON 12.0 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
WNW TRUMANSBURG 12.0 815 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
3 N FREEVILLE 10.5 700 AM 3/07 COCORAHS
Now they have to be very concerned about flooding with the next system. We continue to miss the BIG storm.
ReplyDeleteIT WOULD JUST BE NICE IF ONCE THAT THE MODELS CHANGED IN OUR FAVOR AT THE LAST MINUTE FOR A BIG SNOWSTORM. IT IS ALWAYS THE OPPOSITE THOUGH.
ReplyDeleteThis was a very heavy, wet snow. Can you imagine how big of an impact that would be on the Rochester metro if 20" of that stuff blasted us? Most places would be shut down on this Monday for storm clean up, I suspect.
ReplyDeleteI Feel your pain about the models, WeatherDan. It does seem like storms always shift toward the UN-favorable side for us snow lovers, while everyone around us sees the models shift at the last minute and their NWS Offices spring in at the last minute to issue Warnings. I'm not sure if it's an unlucky coincidence, or if its something about our specific region that models tend to overdo things initially.
In any case, Brian and Scott have cautioned us repeatedly not to live by models. It's a hard thing to do, but it's necessary if you're a person like me who is always monitoring storms that could be looming. With each passing winter, I grow to become more and more cautious of what models are showing. Used to be, I would get excited about a storm showing on a model 192 hours out. Now, i'm still suspicious of a models depiction of a storm 48 hours out. As the saying goes (which I am about to butcher), the higher you let yourself get excited, the greater the fall when it doesn't pan out.
Just want to address those that called yesterday's forecast a bust. Can't put it any more simply.....You're wrong! I don't know what reality you people live on. Scott and Stacey forecasted 4 to 8 while King NOAA forecasted 6 to 10, then even upped it to 7 to 14. It may be a bust for the National Weather Service. But NOT Scott's team. Face it, channel 8 had this thing down AGAIN. I think you guys are just itching to see channel 8's forecast be wrong because it has happened so RARELY this winter. Most accurate forecast for 3 straight years is likely on the way. Get over it.
ReplyDeleteWhat about the late February snowstorm that happened just last year? For awhile, it looked like rain would back in from the east. But it didn't. In fact temps plunged out of nowhere from the 30's into the teens, the snow began and didn't stop until late the next day. Around 20" of snow fell from that single storm. Meanwhile, Buffalo got almost nothing. And Syracuse and Watertown got rain. Rochester ended up being in the absolute PERFECT spot to get slammed. And did we even!
ReplyDeleteScott I know you don't like long range models but does next week look warm.
ReplyDeleteI'm curious, what is the latest in the year that our area has had a significant snow storm? Mid March?
ReplyDeleteWhy has this blog died? Not from the fans, but from the weather crew. They never seem to respond to our questions?
ReplyDeleteGinger - Mother's Day storm of 1989. Several inches of snow.
ReplyDeleteSorry about not answering some of your questions, busy around here. Next week I see no signs of a significant warm up although no real Arctic chill either. It seems Winter will linger with the potential for a few inches of snowfall on Friday as colder air wraps around the mid week storm.
ReplyDeleteScott
May of 1989 we had a surprise wet snow which dropped 6-10" of snow! That was the latest significant snowfall in our recorded history.
ReplyDeleteScott
Do you think we will get enough snow Wednesday to coat the roads? How much and what time could we expect it?
ReplyDeleteIt'll be mighty hard to coat the roads with marginally freezing temperatures during the daylight hours. That March sun is becoming a very effective at warming up the road surfaces...even on cloudy days. You need a good 1" / hour snowfall rate to coat the roads during the day, unless temps are WELL below freezing.
ReplyDeleteIt is time to say that winter is officially done! This blog is officially done until December time. Have a great spring and summer.
ReplyDeleteCan we at least get a new post. I know it is quiet weather out there. But us snow lovers hate to keep seeing a difference 100 miles makes as we get the shaft again with big snows.
ReplyDeletehaha, that's actually pretty funny, Anonymous. I get cringes every time I check this blog because I have to keep being reminded about that 100 mile difference!
ReplyDeleteWe LOVE the snow for snowmobiling...this heavy wet snow/flooding is not good conditions for that, SOOOO I'm ready for spring! Tired of the big storm misses and the snow then rain...it's so messy, we can't ride, it's too messy to go outside for the kids to play...we are all getting cabin fever, let's move on with spring already mother nature!!! A repeat of last spring/summer would be welcome!
ReplyDelete