FREE CAR WASH FOR ALL!
Written By: Scott Hetsko
Flood watches are out through early Saturday as a combination of rain with snow melt will rise area waterways quickly the next 48 hours. The usual suspects, Black and Oatka creek will likely see minor flooding on Friday.
Low pressure will send a surge of moisture up along the Eastern spine of the Appalachian mountain tomorrow evening through early Friday. This low will eventually weaken right over us on Saturday. This will shut off the heavy rain but leftover rain and snow showers will persist right through the Rochester St. Patrick's Day parade. Temperatures will reach the upper 40s Thursday afternoon and stay in the 40s through most of Friday. Any snow accumulation over the weekend will be minor.
Scott,
ReplyDeleteHow much rain would it take to cause significant flooding? I live along the Tonawanda Creek in Batavia and it has flooded my neighborhood before. Last week they issued flood Watches but it never really flooded anywhere.
I would say you have a slightly higher risk this time around. It should not be significant but minor flooding in your area. How much ice is left on the creek?
ReplyDeleteIt looks mostly open from where I can see it over the Lyon Street Bridge. Theres a little ice on the edges, but just very thin stuff. It's definitely running a little high but nowhere near overflowing its banks by any means.
ReplyDeleteIts amazing how we have a RIVER flow right through downtown Rochester and yet it never ever floods.
ReplyDeleteThat's because there's a gigantic dam upstream at Letchworth that was built to stop floods in downtown Rochester.
ReplyDeleteYes, there were very destructive floods in downtown Rochester back in the day before the Mt. Morris dam was built. The Army Corp of Engineers is watching the dam very closely right now because the water level is getting high.
ReplyDeletefreezing rain here in penfield. not rain
ReplyDeleteShouldn't last long in Penfield. Thanks for the update. Still some mix but milder tonight at all levels.
ReplyDeleteScott
Does that mean the Genesee River can still flood upstream from the dam though?
ReplyDeleteHow much snow would we get if the rain tomorrow night and Friday was snow?
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteIs there a scientific reason for why we almost never get snowstorms that produce 2 or 3 inches of what would be rain if it was warmer?
Oh the fantasy! Snowfall would be 1-2 feet if it was snow tomorrow night and Friday. What could have been!
ReplyDeleteScott
Good question, SnowFan! Actually there really IS an explanation. What we know as the "warm conveyor belt" delivers most of the precipitation on the East side of Northern Hemispheric storms. This is also where severe weather is most likely to occur. Back on the Northwest side, the "cold conveyor belt" is limited in moisture but still can pack quite a punch in terms of snowfall. Most classic winter storms produce a huge comma head where over 1" liquid equivalent can occur but most average storms are much less. You don't really need 2" of liquid with ratios of 15:1.
ReplyDeleteScott
Awesome, thanks for the explanation, Scott. That makes sense. I hear the weather guys talk about the "classic comma shape" of winter storms all the time. That makes sense now how most of the moisture would be sucked up on the east side of the storm where its warmest. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteMid level frontogenesis is where the snow will likely develop as well for those geeks reading this.
ReplyDeleteA silver lining to this really miserable wind driven, cold rain is that all of this water we've had during the month of March will end up being great for our area ground water supplies this summer. This is giving us a cushion in case we have a very dry late spring or early summer.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of geeky terms, what is isentropic lift? I hear that sometimes in the forecast discussion when talking about enhanced snow. what's it do?
ReplyDeleteThis is a result of relatively warmer air riding up and over colder, more dense air at the surface. This lift occurs commonly as a warm front approaches and often produces heavy precipitation.
ReplyDeleteThis is some seriously persistent rain. I don't think it has stopped raining in the last 24 hours. It's amazing we haven't seen any serious flood issues so far.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like we'll get a little break in the action (or at least the steadier action) before another round moves in later today and tonight.
ReplyDelete-Stacey
I have a bet with the wife. I say put the snow blower away we are done with shove-able snow. She says one more storm at least.
ReplyDeleteWant to pick the winner?
If you put it away, you KNOW we are going to get another "snow-blowable" snow. That's just how things work! So the question is - do you want more snow??
ReplyDelete-Stacey
I agree. We're done with anything big. Just wet snow showers that barely stick.
ReplyDeleteWell I want to win the bet of course. Its a big bet, she has to go for coffee some time in May (or I do) so stakes are huge.
ReplyDeleteI say we are done. Chances for a big snow go down every week and the 7 day doesn't look like there are any big snow events there. I know we have had snow all of April but my bet is no we are done with shove-able snow.
Will Channel 8 pick a winner?
Scott,
ReplyDeleteThis is turning out to be a very wet March. Would you happen to know in what years or years has the month of March been the wettest? In term of rainfall and flooding.
Thanks,
Jim
I dont' trust this wacky weather pattern we've had this winter. I think our snowblowers will need to be used one or two more times before its all said and done.
ReplyDeleteI agree with DK. I think one more big snow storm is ours to be had. And I've always said we need that one last big one to change up the atmosphere and get us into the spring weather mode. I know a certain weather outlet keeps harping about a big east coast storm around the 20th of this month. Time will tell.
ReplyDeleteAn X-class (very large) solar flare has erupted from the sun and impacted earth yesterday. Now, the 5th largest earthquake in history has just struck.
ReplyDeleteTell me these things aren't connected.
Or does the upcoming "supermoon" have some role in this as well??
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't be surprised if they're all playing a role. People tend to underestimate just how much of an impact things in our outerspace have on the inner workings of the earth. Just think about how the moon can literally cause the oceans to rise. That's pretty trippy when you think about it. It only makes sense that this massive ball of energy that sustains life on earth can't do more than that under the surface.
ReplyDeleteHere's a provocative quiz:
ReplyDeleteThe last super-moon occurred on January 10th, 2005. What happened just 15 days prior to that?
The answer might alarm you.
What was it?
ReplyDelete