RAIN ENDS AS SNOW ON SUNDAY
Written By: Scott Hetsko
A quasi stationary front will only slowly move East during the weekend. Several little low pressure centers will form along this boundary which is typical with such a slow mover. Two issues to watch the next 60 hours: Minor flooding, snow accumulation.
Most of the region will get between 1-1.5" of rain especially Saturday night and early Sunday before colder air works in from West to East Sunday morning. Black, Oatka creeks locally will have the largest risk for minor flooding. There will likely by several hours of steady, wet snowfall here Sunday afternoon. At this point, I wouldn't be shocked to see 3-6" of that snow accumulate by evening. The highest amounts would be Southeast of Rochester where moisture will hold on the longest.
You may have seen one model (NAM) being overly excited about a new wave on Monday with 12" of snow. That likely won't happen as the front will be too far East for that storm to deliver much snow here. Watch over the weekend for developments!
Oh these March storms sure know how to throw us a few curve balls. I'm afraid too many curve balls may equal lots of snow balls!
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteI saw your promo with Kucko on the Facebook page where you used that talking animation similar to the one used to make fun of global warming. Let me just say....I literally laughed out loud. You should do more of those.
3 to 6 inches of heavy wet snow could make for quite a mess if it times up with the Monday AM commute. Not to mention all of the pouring rain during the weekend will have cleared away all the salt that was on the roads. I've learned with the last storm that a heavy, wet synoptic snowfall can really slick up the roads much worse than the 20:1 ratio lake effect snow we have gotten so used to.
ReplyDeletewow- this might actually be quite interesting.
ReplyDeleteThe 6z nam is holding its position. And 6 inches isn't what it's advertising. The 0z advertised 20 inches using the Cobb output. The 6 z is gonna be more! WOW! The SREF is also showing a more bullish solution. Scott? Doesn't this smack of the 1999 storm that gave roc 23 inches only to be followed two days later with an 18 inch deal? Not that that will happen but this scenario is similar (only the first one of course). A warm wet front stall over eastern ny and a low moves up the spine of the apps. I am gonna enjoy watching this storm! RochesterDAVE
ReplyDeleteRochester Dave what are you talking about? Have you lost your mind because it was 4:30 in the morning? Remind you of the storm in 1999? The two most accurate models the GFS and Euro do not have us getting a great deal of snow it is well east of us. Not sure how you hint we are going to get overe 20 inches please be more responsible on here. Thanks
ReplyDeleteHey Anonymous....relax a little bit. RochesterDAVE was just pointing out what a couple models are pointing out. Plus, if YOU are relying on the GFS and EURO, then in my mind you have lost your mind...i wouldnt rely on those models either this year. Just relax a little and be responsible yourself. News 8 is the best!
ReplyDeleteFor what it is worth weather.com has snow tomorrow and 4-6 inches of accumulation. Not sure anyone knows what is happening with rain/snow line. This just caps off how the whole winter has gone the models have been all over and things change hours before the storm happens. Guess we just have to wait and see.
ReplyDeleteWondering what DK thinks will happen at this point?
ReplyDeleteWinter Storm Watches out East of us.
ReplyDeleteYes Syracuse and points east the models are more in line with what the GFS was saying more east. The NAM was too far west thus we will get a little snow but Syracuse east could get 8 inches or more.
ReplyDeleteOk by me.
ReplyDeleteThe models are still printing out over 8 inches of snow for us though.
ReplyDeleteNAM is still crazy over producing for Western N.Y. in my opinion. Nothing has really changed in our forecast. Look for rain to begin changing over to snow between 3 and 7 a.m. tomorrow morning. I expect 3-6" of heavy, wet snow for Rochester but 4-8" in the Finger Lakes. No doubt that some damaging wet snow is likely in Central and Eastern NY but I don't think that will be the case here. (12-18" there)
ReplyDeleteNWS will either issue weather advisory or warnings for us later today. Stacey will have more later this afternoon.
Scott Hetsko
Wow Scott do you think Syracuse will get 12-18 inches of snow?
ReplyDeleteYes easily and maybe Eastern Wayne, Cayuga get a foot. It will be that close tomorrow night and Monday.
ReplyDeleteI would think more likely the higher elevations of central and eastern NY would see 12-18, nit Syracuse.
ReplyDeleteWhy are we always on the edge. I would not want to forecast this one. Any jog to the West could give us the 12-18
ReplyDeleteScott, if the storm is that close how come they do not put out Watches for us.
ReplyDeleteJust a question, why are we discounting the NAM being the storm is less than 24 hours away.
ReplyDeleteWinter Storm watches were just postd for us.
ReplyDeleteThey have 6-8 for Buffalo with 8 or more for us.
ReplyDeleteThat is more for finger lakes and genesee county
ReplyDeletePOTENTIAL FOR A
ReplyDeleteFOOT OR MORE GEN VLY AND EAST...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WILL ISSUE WATCH FORALL AREAS. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST FROM GENESEE RIVER EAST...SOMEWHAT LESS WEST. WILL SPLIT WATCH INTO TWO SEGMENTS FOR TIMING...4 AM TO 10 PM WEST...AND 8 AM TO 4 AM MON EAST. WILL UPDATE ALL GRIDS AND FORECASTS BY 1 PM.
THEY ARE SAYING A FOOT OR MORE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EAST
tHEY HAVE rOCHESTER IN THE 8 OR MORE, NOT JUST THE fINGERLAKES.
ReplyDeleteWhere is DK he has been quiet?
ReplyDeleteI am not buying into this for the Rochester metro area. Scott himself said 3-6 and that is what all the local forecasters are saying. We will probably see more like 3 inches in the city.
ReplyDeleteThe interesting part of this storm is that it is a slow mover and the snow will be the heavy wet kind. Also I think the winds could gust a bit to 30mph. I am not sure if this is accurate maybe Scott or DK can correct me?
ReplyDeleteAs always, we will see. It will be a close call either way.
ReplyDeleteCAN WE SAFELY SAY WE ARE NOT GOING TO RCEIVE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT?
ReplyDeleteWeather.com has us getting snow tomorrow 5-8 inches then snow tomorrow night with 5-8 inches. If reading correctly they are predicting 10-16 inches by Monday morning. Is that possible?
ReplyDeleteThe new NAM still shows us getting hit hard with snow. It is a slow mover so whoever gets the heavy snow will get quite a bit.
ReplyDeletei think right now we have a good chance at getting a foot of snow from this storm!!!
ReplyDeleteBatten down the hatches here in Penfield. We made our Wegmans stop last night, all stocked up for this March Blast!
ReplyDelete