SUNDAY'S WET SNOW
Written by: Stacey Pensgen
It's the first weekend in March, so why wouldn't we get moderate a synoptic snow? The stalled front that has brought us soggy weather will slowly move to the east by Sunday morning, changing rain over to snow West by about sunrise. Moisture continues to ride up along the boundary, and at this point, we expect 4-8" of sloppy, wet snow for most of the area. Extreme western Orleans County will likely see less, while higher amounts are possible East of Rochester.
The fly in the ointment: the next low riding up along this boundary. One track has it further west, which would bring more snow Sunday night. The more easterly track would allow snow to taper Sunday night. So, these are our snowfall totals through Sunday evening.
STORM WARNINGS SHOULD GO UP SOON. WHAT ARE THEY WAITING FOR?
ReplyDeleteikrr....i have a feeling that well get a foot of snow!!!!!! :)
ReplyDeleteThe NWS isn't confident enough for a Warning. They are waiting to decide whether to raise it to a Warning, or lower it to an Advisory. As Stacey pointed out, it hinges on where those ripples of low pressure track along the boundary. Expect the NWS to update to a Warning or Advisory by about 11PM tonight after some new guidance comes in.
ReplyDeleteThe models are still printing out a lot of precip for us.
ReplyDeleteTHE GFS IS FURTHER EAST THAN THE NAM. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE WILL NOT GET WARNING CRITERIA SNOW. IF THE NAM VERIFIES WE WILL
ReplyDeleteDK what are you thinking about the potential for this storm for the Rochester metro?
ReplyDeleteI think 5 to 9 for the metro.
ReplyDeleteWhat is time frame for this snow?
ReplyDeleteIt looks like the changeover from rain to snow will be around sunrise West of Rochester, everybody sees snow by mid-morning. Snows all day.
ReplyDeleteStacey
DK is that in total or just tomorrow and then more tomorrow night?
ReplyDeleteTotal. I think that the heaviest stuff will be to our east. My thinking is basically in line with channel 8 on this one.
ReplyDelete0z will seal the deal. Will it be the Nam, with unmentionable amounts of snow (I'm sure Stacy has seen the cobb output- think yardstick) or will it be the 12z GFS which said about 2 inches. The 18z GFS did give us 10". Some other models of import have shifted the snowiest area EAST of us, with Syracuse being the BIG winner. RocDave
ReplyDeleteDave I think you are right on with your post. The Nam is out on its own however current storm location may support the NAM with track. If the NAM wins out over all the others we will get a big storm. You are riight the next runs of the NAM and GFS should be interesting. Hopefully you and DK will update us all. I believe the NAM is at 9 and GFS at 10:30?
ReplyDeleteNWS has upgraded Monroe, Wayne, Livingston and Ontario Counties to a Warning, Orleans, Genesee and Wyoming now under an Advisory, and Yates County remains under a Watch. I still feel fairly comfortable with our numbers, with maybe just a few more inches Sunday night before tapering.
ReplyDeleteStacey
The NAM is notably east of it's previous track, which puts it more in line with the GFS and Euro. Even so, the NAM was previously predicting well OVER 1 Foot of snow before. This new track only shifts it to something more reasonable. 4 to 8 or 5 to 9 still look to be the best bet for Rochester metro. Stacey's map outlines it about as accurately as you can get at this juncture. Best bet for higher totals within our viewing area would be out toward Canandaigua or especially Geneva/Waterloo direction.
ReplyDeleteI think the areas to our east are maintaining a Watch at this moment because they are with the Binghamton NWS Office and are waiting for the GFS run to come in (which it currently is). The Buffalo NWS Office didn't bother waiting for the GFS. They just waited for the NAM at 9:00 and made the call.
ReplyDeleteIn other words another miss which keeps us consistent for this winter. Still have not had a direct hit snowstorm.
ReplyDeleteAs usual the TWC is way off base they have us in the 12plus range on their latest map. I agree with all of you maybe 4 inches in the city.
ReplyDeleteRain changed over to snow in Lyons at about 5:30 this morning. Already a fresh 1/2" ti inch of snow.
ReplyDeleteRight now in Henrietta we have 2 inches already on the ground.
ReplyDeleteRadar does not look impressive lucky if we get 4 inches total for the total srorm.
ReplyDeletelooks like the snow wont last two much longer.
ReplyDeleteLatest update from NWS seems to indicate lesser amounts for the entire region...even eastern-most counties may escape the next wave of low pressure moving up from the south. Any thoughts on this from the Ch.8 weather team?
ReplyDeleteYeah this will wind down through the early afternoon. Very light and granular snowfall rtemains. We will end up around where we expected although on the lower end of our range.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
Thanks Scott. And again, you guys at Ch. 8 do a great job.
ReplyDeleteMore lies...
ReplyDeleteNearly 3" at noon here.
ReplyDeleteSo to the coward that wrote "more lies" I just measured my snowfall in Henrietta and I just about have 4" of snow and expect maybe another 1" So we forecasted 4-8" with this snowfall. Where's the lie???
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
It has been amazing how bad the models have been this winter can not remember them being this wrong even one day before the storm.
ReplyDeleteI'm just glad we got some more snow on the ground! This "storm" came out of no where and the 4-5 inches on the ground at my house is bonus snow this time of year. Good stuff News 8! You called this before anyone else.
ReplyDeleteWhen I said more lies, I meant the models, not Scott's forecast! The models have been terrible and all over the place all winter long. Scott called it perfectly with 4-8"
ReplyDeleteHey Scott- NOAA is still forecasting 6-10" daytime in the Elmira-Corning region and an additional 4-8" tonight. Can this be true? The system looks like it'll be out of the entire WNY region by later this evening...??
ReplyDeleteAbout 4 inches of snow in Lyons at noontime. Not snowing nearly as hard as it was earlier this morning.
ReplyDeleteAbout 4" in Gates.
ReplyDeleteWill this ever end?
This was a busted weekend. We did not get 1-2 inches of rain and we did not get the snowfall that was forecasted. This little storm ended at 2pm. What happend?
ReplyDeleteSorry, we did get the lowere end of the forecasted amount. We never receive the higher end.
ReplyDeleteHow much DID you get weatherdan and where do you live? We forecasted 4-8" and most got at least 4". The airport got 5.5", my house 5", Greece 6" and 7-8" fell in parts of Yates and Ontario counties. So why do you perceive the forecast as a "bust" Your flat out wrong.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
I agree with weatherdan, its a bust in terms of what you forecasted for Geneva, down to Penn Yan, down to Corning. You have it in 8-12" and theres only 5" in Geneva and 4" in Corning. No more getting my hopes up, in the future I will simply subtract about 4 inches from your next educated guess. You should forfeit your paycheck this week (kidding!)
ReplyDeleteYou guys are crazy, if your going to hate on Scott and the rest of the News 8 Weather Team, the next event we get, I want to see your predictions. If your closer than Scott, then you can brag and say News 8 is bad. I thought it was well forecasted and hope we have a couple more systems so we can hear from the almighty Weatherdan, or is it Weatherandrew!?
ReplyDelete