Literally the Coldest. EVER.
Most "normal" people you run into (non-weather weenies) will probably tell you this winter was the worst EVER! That's an exaggeration, but only slightly. With 1 day left in the month, I'm 99.9% certain we will end the month of February the coldest in recorded history in Rochester, at 12.4° for the average. Nine days (not including Saturday morning) were below zero, 10 days (not including Saturday) were 10 days at OR below zero. AND we recorded snow on 25 out of 26 days in the month (not including today & Saturday).
It looks like March will continue the snowy trend, with accumulating snow developing by Sunday evening and lasting through the Monday morning rush. I expect all of us to be doing a little more shoveling by Monday afternoon. No, not a "big one" but yes, some more accumulating snow to kick off the new month! And Tuesday/Wednesday - yeah, it's a sloppy storm!
Yes 12z Euro confirms this storm will be much more rain than any other form of precipitation.
ReplyDeleteIt is still 5 days out.
ReplyDeleteThe Flower City will have a historic ice storm within the next 6 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteYou must be a contract who looks to make significant dollars off your neighbors if you are wishing for this.
DeleteYou hush your mouth little anonymous guy!
ReplyDeleteI'M NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO GET MY CAR OUT OF MY DRIVEWAY SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS BECAUSE OF ALL THE DAMN MUD MARK IT DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteHave to admit -- this made me laugh.
DeleteNBD for the next 10 days! Mark it down, winter is over!!
ReplyDeleteWow forecast has changed for Sunday. It was to be close to 30 and overcast; now sunny and in the teens. Will this coldness every end?
ReplyDeleteThe anonymous posting is getting annoying. No one believes anything you are saying. But keep going, makes me laugh so that is good.
ReplyDeleteWinter storm watches up for counties south west of us for the late Saturday through Monday time frame. Where is the NBD poster now? Not saying it will happen in our northern counties but just pointing out that it is certainly not NBD.
ReplyDeleteWould agree with you. In your face NBD!
DeleteIf it's not a blizzard it's NBD, everyone knows that :P
DeleteHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
ReplyDeleteNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
255 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015
NYZ001>008-010-011-013-014-282000-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
255 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD LIKELY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. IF CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS EVENT...WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WOULD
LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A MIXED BAG
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS AND ICE JAM FLOODING.
I don't get the Winter Storm Watches myself. This storm is not that strong.
ReplyDeletehttp://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
ReplyDelete"WHILE ALL COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF 6 OF MORE INCHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORCING CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD."
There's your answer. You don't need a strong storm to get a winter storm watch, and in the same vein a strong storm doesn't always produce enough snow for one.
Rain during midweek storm simple as that.
ReplyDeletehttp://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
ReplyDelete"WHILE SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERRIDE COLDER SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A WARM NOSE IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SNOW TO CHANGE TO AN ICY MIX OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SECTIONS POSSIBLY EVEN GOING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES PUSH TOWARD 40 DEGREES.
THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE TRAILING STRONG WINDS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. THE TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET CROSSING DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK INDICATING THE START OF THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED HIGH WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES."
Mixture of precip types during midweek storm simple as that. Actually, it's not simple at all.
So sounds like that storm could turn into something big?
ReplyDeleteNo indication of that right now. Just a messy setup.
DeleteStill no big deal for tomorrow and Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteWhy is it so important for you to continue to say NBD over and over?
DeleteBecause I am Rochester's Most Accurate and been saying it for 5 days and are now correct as all the data is showing. How about a little props please.
ReplyDeletePretty sad people come on here to talk and get weather info and it's turned into a circus now with all you clowns.
ReplyDeleteHello Fizbo sorry you come on here to get accurate weather talk. It ay not be what you want since you want a blizzard but never the less for the last 5 days it has been accurate. A few inches tomorrow and a mix Tuesday/Wednesday with rain the more prevalent part of the mix. Sorry do not shoot the accurate messenger.
ReplyDeleteI seem to recall our little boy genius saying Tuesday would be just rain. This is the first I'm hearing of any mix from him. I guess some props are due after all: congratulations on your ability to sneakily edit your outlooks ;o
ReplyDeleteIt would seem that any rain we get will not be significant enough to cause any major flooding issues. I would even go as far as to say that this is the best possible outcome for avoiding issues down the line...we're going to cut into some of the snowpack without adding more weight to it or experiencing a worrisome flood threat. The only downside is that whatever does melt will refreeze in short order, so late Wednesday night may feature some icy road conditions. Still on track for a longer lasting warm pattern beginning near the 10th.
On a side note, moving sucks :<
Snowdog has become quiet te last 2 days. That tells me NBD is definitely in order.
ReplyDeleteOr he's been digging his way through Mount Poontang.
DeleteOne or two inches of snow tomorrow is what they are predicting. Far cry from the 3-5 many were saying again as it has been said NBD.
ReplyDeletehttp://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
ReplyDelete"...WITH AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION ON SUNDAY AND 1-2 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT IN STEADY LIGHT SNOW WHICH WILL BRING TOTALS INTO THE 2-3 INCH RANGE."
But 2-3 inches is still NBD and way way less than 3-5 inches so NBD, just as Anon has been saying it's NBD because it's just a few inches so it's NBD.
ReplyDeleteNBD
ReplyDeleteB
D
En. Bee. Dee.
ReplyDeleteThis is such good news. I am so sick of the cold and winter. Glad temps are going up and little snow. Spring right around the corner can not wait for the early spring after this brutal February.
ReplyDeleteAnd then I see -2 for Friday night in Matt's forecast...that's going to be one huge corner.
ReplyDeleteGlad your back on... Was getting a little dicey with just me, the NBD'er and a few anons. Is tomorrow heavy and wet or light and fluffy?
ReplyDeleteTomorrow is Nbd an inch how heavy can that be?
Delete12:1 ratios so probably a tad on the wet and heavy side.
DeleteLooking at the long range data and anomalies we have a great shot at very little snow and warmer temperatures early this March and,April.
ReplyDeleteDid you include April in there just to be goofy? Because April is almost always warmer with very little snow. Otherwise it's never safe to discount March for a substantial snow event.
DeleteWe lost 10 degrees in the past hour. Another night of radiational cooling on the way...
ReplyDeleteThere will be no March big snow storm we paid our dues in February.
ReplyDeleteWhat is this new method that allows you to predict a lack of storms over a 31 day span? I'm still waiting for the one that can help predict a 10 day span.
ReplyDelete10 sub zero lows this month. Ties the record number of sub zero lows in a calendar month. 12 on the season. Tied for 2nd. (record is 14).
ReplyDeleteIf the rapid radiational cooling continues, tomorrow could be #13.
This pattern change that u are talking about CCC. I do not see it lasting more than a few days.
ReplyDeleteThe shifting EPO phase, Euro weekly, CFS and Typhoon Rule all disagree.
DeleteRemember, it's a pattern change away from big arctic intrusions, not a full-blown foray into warmth and sun.
ReplyDeleteKnow it won't make some happy on this blog, but kinda of glad we did not get the 6+ inches some were predicting. Like to be able to get out and enjoy the winter screnary. It is a good day for a hike in Mendon Ponds. Plus for those who have to get the snow and ice of their roof tops -- today will help them to do that. Say many doing it on Saturday. So lets just sit back for a day or two and enjoy the snow we have.
ReplyDeleteAnybody care to predict if we will still have enough snow on the ground to sled at the end of the month around spring break. Have family coming up from NC then and it would be cool to take them sledding.
ReplyDeleteThat is a trick prediction, March can swing either way very quickly. I am going to say that the way this winter has behaved so far, you will still be sledding in the end or march. But who knows?
DeleteNo you will be going to the beach by the end of March look at the long term data. March will be above normal for temperatures we may hit 60 by the 3rd week of March.
ReplyDeleteAfter living my entire 36 years within a mile from lake Ontario, I will tell you with 100% confidence you will not be enjoying your trip to any beach on lake Ontario this March with anything less than a heavy sweat shirt, or coat. Get ready for a cold spring along the lake shore, just like last year, SORRY.
DeleteIf you have seen the lake shore lately you will understand what I am talking about. It will take a week of 60's to melt the mountains of ice from the shore line let alone start to warm the water.
DeletePaging SNOWDOG...Where is the 6" of snow that you said was coming today???!!! I don't see it, nor am I waiting for it...because it is NBD like I said allllllllllllllll along my friend...told ya you shoulda listened to me! You got everyone all hot and bothered for a storm that is absolutely NBD! Maybe you should just give up posting snowdog, pretty much everything you say is always false! CCCC and I are the only educated people who know what we are talking about...Sorry folks who were lead on by snowdog, but this one is NBD!
ReplyDeleteJust go away please. Your sarcastic and condicending comments are rude and uncalled for. I will not reply or post to you again so don't bother with any reply to me at least. Good luck in life I hope you find happiness.
DeleteBtw mid week NBD either as has been mentioned the last 5 days. Snowdog again is wrong. He kept saying 5 days out well SD wrong we are now close and it is NBD. Also there is nothing showing in the 7-10 day timeframe too. Spring is coming faster than SD wants.
ReplyDeleteSeems like your ego is a REALLY big deal. 95% of our weather is NBD so your prediction isn't that earth shattering.
ReplyDeleteI guess if you keep saying NBD for every possible storm you will eventually be right. Didn't hear much from you in February.
ReplyDeleteSergeant Enbeedee is 300 lbs overweight, has never had a girlfriend or taken a shower, owns every episode of My Little Pony on DVD, wears a trilby to school every day and places serious importance upon making correct predictions in the comments of a blog...anonymously of course. Be proud Sergeant Enbeedee, for this is truly your life's unrivaled pinnacle. I'm sure Snowdog is off sobbing in a corner somewhere having been rectally flotsamed by such an outstanding force of nature, because this blog is certainly the most important thing in his life right now.
ReplyDeleteANYWAY...it's never safe to discount any time period in March regarding a rogue winter storm. This is a transition month known for its wild swings and anomalous weather events. Recall last year when a rather sizable storm swung in out of nowhere right at the end of the month, with no expectation of anything notable until the last possible moment. The pattern by late March this year may not favor a snow event, but no pattern is ever fully prohibitive. It's also never safe to discount a colder trend in the short range for storms happening in a -EPO regime, with a widespread deep snow cover to boot. In fact, that's exactly the trend we've seen over the past 24 hours for Tuesday's mess...not to the tune of much more snow mind you, but it's possible that parts of the region may not transition over to liquid rain for more than one or two hours.
Any risk (hoping not) of significant icing Tuesday cccc?
ReplyDeleteSW
Not at this point.
DeleteThat could change keep an eye on it.
ReplyDeleteExtremely unlikely to have major changes this close in though.
DeleteThe way Tuesday looks right now we're going to start off with 1-2 inches of snow, then transition over to a mix of sleet and freezing rain before switching to rain late at night. Probably a 60/40 distribution of liquid QP to wintry QP the way I see it.
ReplyDelete