A MESSY SITUATION MIDWEEK
March didn't come in like a lion but also not like a lamb either with light snow that fell across much of the area.
A much stronger low pressure system developing right now over the southern Rockies will race northeast through the Midwest and then reach the Great Lakes and Northeast by Tuesday afternoon.
A developing warm front ahead of the storm will spread widespread snow into western New York by Tuesday afternoon. A few inches of slushy accumulation could occur with this initial burst of snow. Mild air will then surge in from the south as the warm front lifts north through the region with snow transitioning to a nasty mix of sleet and freezing rain. Cold air trapped near the surface could allow for a few hours of freezing rain and this could create some very slick travel for a brief time Tuesday evening. As temperatures continue to rise, all precipitation should then transition to rain overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning.
Don't get used to the milder air because temperatures will plunge again by the second half of the week with highs by Thursday struggling to climb out of the teens.
Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones
Ugh.
ReplyDeleteMostly rain tomorrow with this event. RC a burst of snow tomorrow afternoon maybe an inch or two then quick change to rain with the warm air on a south wind.
ReplyDeleteMostly rain means NBD folks! Enjoy the snow melt!
ReplyDeleteThe good news is the bulk of the precip will come when it's a mix or snow. According to the NWS maybe 1/4" will come as rain or mix and regardless no flooding since the snowpack will easily absorb any liquid precip. The snowpack isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteFor those concern about flooding, but it is important for ALL to keep in mind the snow pack which currently exists. If you have several (4+) feet of snow (if you don't, where do you live then), it will not melt with the rain or mix that we are expecting. Besides the cold weather will not be going anywhere soon. So for those who are expecting Spring to be right around the corner, it is not. Spring will be late in arriving, as it is March and temperatures will continue to fluctuate. February was the coldest and snowiest in a VERY long time. For those who love the cold and snow -- you must be a little depressed to see February go. Wonder how JN feels about it, as that level of excitement over the past several weeks he displayed giving the weather report, may not be there; the guy might need therapy.
ReplyDeleteHope weather people are right about no significant ice .I remember April 2008 and no one had a lot of ice predicted and low and behold it never switched to rain and we got hit pretty hard. I am not rooting for it and think the mets are right but you never know.
ReplyDeleteLong range model friends:
ReplyDeleteAny ideas how long it will be for the temps to actually change to spring temps? And stay that way?
May or June
DeleteDon't count on it anytime soon. Cold will be with us for a while. Look towards the end of March before you begin to see a steady warm up. Remember even with a few days here and there of 20-30 degree weather, it will not begin to melt the snow pack. That will take some time.
DeleteI'm not budging on March 10th for winter's demise, save for the usual rogue snowstorm possibility. Nothing has changed in that regard for about a week. But as I've said before, I don't anticipate a headfirst dive into May flowers.
DeleteStarting Saturday Winter will be dead. Mark it down!
DeleteCCCC: why are you saying March 10th? Just curious. I'm the original anon. poster 12:11
DeleteI think 2 pair of C's mentioned the Western ridge breaking down around then. If I'm looking at the MJO forecast correctly it would back that up. With a peak temp spike around the 14th or 15th of the month. Not talking about grass growing warmth but warm enough to give you spring fever. That's assuming I'm looking at it right and it actually happens.
DeleteSnowdog you are an absolute moron! May or June?! LMAO
DeleteTo the original poster who asked: Climatology reports are now showing March, April, and May to all be warmer than average in the north east, with March not trending till mid-month as CCCC has stated. To me it looks like early to mid april is when we will see consistent mild temps (50's) across the board, with a MUCH warmer rise towards late April
I would say you're looking at it right Caledonia. Also lol @ anon trying to predict April and May.
DeleteMore ticks towards the cold corner for tomorrow on the models. The latest GGEM run would actually keep us mostly frozen, with maybe a very brief period of light rain. I'll be the first to laugh in Sgt Enbeedee's face if this trend continues.
ReplyDeleteAnd now a Winter Weather Advisory for 1-3 inches of snow and up to a tenth of an inch of ice.
ReplyDeleteJust went up for all of WNY Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.
DeleteAdvisory? *yawn* NBD
DeleteCccc, define demise? Back to average temps?
ReplyDeleteOh WWA with 1-3 inches of snow and a huge tenth of an inch of ice. If that is a big deal in Rochester then CCCC you have become Mr.Whimpy! Again NBD would be the option here for this lack of moisture front.
ReplyDeleteAgreed!
DeleteBOOM! Sorry folks, NBD on this one! Nothin to fret over!
Delete1/100" of ice on roads is not nbd.
ReplyDeleteEntire Winter so far = NBD!!!!!
ReplyDeleteBring on Spring!
anon 3:07 hopefully that NBD of ice is just enough for you to slide off the road and crash into a telephone pole.
DeleteI should hope it won't come to that in order to hammer home the significance of the coldest and fourth snowiest February of all time...
DeleteYes the NBD person would see getting in a vehicle accident, totaling their car, sustaining some injuries, being off from work as NBD.
Deletea tenth of an inch of ice is worse than 6" of snow for travel, and any extra weight onto untreated structures (such as your roof) at this point is not a good thing.
ReplyDeleteAdam
Sorry but a 1/10th of an inch of ice is NBD at all. 1/4 inch would be a problem.
DeleteSo I guess it's either zero impact or the end of existence, with no possibility of an in-between option. Also it seems that whenever I talk about colder trends and winter weather advisories it really means I'm sounding the bread and milk alarm. No, it's still not that big of a deal, but as a few others have mentioned even a small amount of ice on the roadways is nothing to scoff at. Even a little wet snow can create slippery travel conditions. It's a small-sized deal with extra mayo.
ReplyDeleteLooks like WWA updated with less snow but more ice. Up to 1/4" ice later today and tonight. IF that happens it would def not be NBD. A tenth is not much to worry about, a quarter is much more IMO.
ReplyDeleteOur weather people do not seem worried about this afternoon and tonight. I just worry about these set-ups sometimes. I remember April 2008 and that was not predicted to be a lot of ice if I remember correctly.
ReplyDeleteThey are not worried bc this is NBD at all. It's just a few people here hyping it up to something to get a rise out of others. NBD at all
DeleteHow about a little perspective. If you take mostly main roads then this will most likely be "NBD" because (for the most part) the road crews do an amazing job when we have freezing rain AND the salt will work well unlike when we had 2 inches of snow followed by negatives which made the best kept roads icy. With that said, if your tires are starting to get old and you are on side streets or need to try to walk somewhere it will be a big deal. I don't think the local mets are that concerned because it's a fast moving system and the icy part will be happening when less people are out. That's just my opinion though.
ReplyDeleteWell said, NBD is correct! And I agree we do have amazing road crews who will make this not a problem at all. Rest easy!
Deletelooks like a pretty good size precip shield to start off with, maybe see a few inches out of it....maybe we ll get lucky and it ll dip south and give us mostly snow all day and night.
ReplyDeleteadam
Does anyone know how to get prior snowfall total per day at the ROC airport? Im sure there is someplace online you can check it out, just not sure where.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KROC/2015/2/3/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=Rochester&req_state=NY&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=14602&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999
DeleteGood thing is models are really showing nothing for us in the next 7-10days storm wise. Think we have had the last of any big snow or cold this winter. Yes!
ReplyDeleteAnything in the next week or two will be NBD. Winter is coming to an end folks!
DeleteJust went to wegmans, how come there is plenty of bread and milk still left over? Thought people would be stocking up for this event!
ReplyDeleteHahahah. Nah they are all at Home Depot buying Generators.
DeleteBrian in Greece
NBD the great CCCC is awol.
ReplyDeleteYou rang?
DeleteHave some people forgotten where we live? Calling for an outright end to any snowstorm chances...in March...in a place whose largest snowstorms frequently occur in March. Not very wise IMO. I've said this a thousand times already: our snowstorm chances are not dropping to zero even with the sustained wintry pattern ending fairly soon. Speaking of which, the big change may occur more towards the 11th or 12th as opposed to the 10th. Fairly minor shift, just an extra day or two.
ReplyDeleteLight snow falling right now, already has some wetness to it so I expect some rather slick travel conditions for the evening commute. Hopefully no one expects perfectly clear roads from seeing "NBD" spammed everywhere. I think at some point I'm going to learn how to draw manga art and create a pokemon named Enbeedee.
You told everybody here that Winter officially ends on March 10th! You are the Pied Piper to these people! They can't think for themselves, therefore you must do it for them! I intend to wake up on the 11th and expect it to be 65 and sunny because you made me a believer!
Deletelolwhut
DeleteI'll admit, some of the trolling on here gets old but anon 1:10's post is pretty funny.
DeleteI think it has been made pretty clear that sunny and 65 wasn't going to happen. Chains are being yanked.
ReplyDeleteIf God gave you eyes look outside and let me know if it is NBD or not? Low visibility and snow covered roads. Nothing huge but I imagine there will be several accidents because of it unfortunately
ReplyDeleteNBD NBD NBD NBD NBD NBD..........Ok, now that we got that out of the way for the other 5 anons that will post it in the next hr or so....the roads are aweful, its snowing quite hard, and theres def. atleast 2" down already where I m at, and probably another 2 to come before it ices over the top and turns into concrete.....Not looking forward to driving home in it. Be safe.
ReplyDeleteAdam
Which part of Monroe County are you located. Within the City it has snowed pretty steady, but don't believe we have gotten close to 2", and besides the Winter Weather Advisory was not starting 2-4 inches -- more line 1-2 or 1-3 depending on where you are located. Also it talked about raining overnight, and the temps do not look to fall below freezing -- so though it might be messy; don't see it become concrete.
DeleteHope NBD is not one of the vehicles which is off the road. From what I am hearing -- the road are not the best. Hopefully the plows will be coming through shortly.
ReplyDeleteNBD is busy telling people there will be no more winter storms in the middle of this current winter storm. They will be back shortly.
ReplyDeleteAre we actually going to get 1/4" of ice before the temp warms above freezing at the surface? That's a different story than 1/10th.
ReplyDelete"Up to" 1/4 inch of ice. I don't really see that happening.
DeleteI chiseled my car out of about 2 inches of snow caked over by a decent coating of ice. Dozens of accident reports this afternoon with continued slippery road conditions. But hey, NBD right?
ReplyDeleteI cleared off my car, pulled out of the parking lot and my window froze right over as I was driving. I put my 4 ways on, stuck my head out the window and pulled over at the next available side street, and waited for my car to warm up properly. Raining/Sleeting and my car said 27. Though It was so cold this morning I suspect the car itself may have been colder than that.
DeleteNBD. The new Mark it Down.
I'm starting to think NBD means No Bigger ...Discrepancy.
I just will never relate to anyone who has nothing better to do than to come on a blog for only one reason which Is to create drama and try to rattle people. Just so annoying. Today was one of the worst days in terms of road conditions I can think of this winter. It came really quick
ReplyDeleteDid you see the predicted temperatures for mid week next week? Spring will be here yes.
ReplyDeleteAround the 10th to the 14th? Yeah it's been discussed.
DeleteWe might actually get through this system with little to no plain rain. Still at the freezing mark as of 8pm with what appears to be very little precipitation remaining. Where's that guy who was so arrogantly declaring we'd be getting just rain? Looks like all of that big talk amounted to Snowdog thoroughly winning this round, despite anon crapping all over him for days.
ReplyDelete+1 for snowdog. Loserville for rain, rain nbd anon!
ReplyDeleteSome wicked gusts outside right now. Was it supposed to be this windy?
ReplyDeleteRoad were much better coming into work than last night driving home. Interested to see what NBD has to say about late yesterday and last night. Can't believe we will again experience below 0 wind chills. Looking forward to the warm up (which means 25+ degrees) next week. Just would like a little bit of sun and warm temperatures (again meaning 25+ degrees) for a couple of days.
ReplyDeleteInteresting how not posts from NBD -- perhaps he is one of the cars which ended up in a ditch late yesterday. Wonder if the saying would be NBD to car repairs, towing costs, etc.
ReplyDeleteNBD to the cost of snow tires, you should try them! 2" of snow and ice makes me yawn on the roads
DeleteBIG warm-up next week. Hopefully it will be a slow melt and does not come with a lot of rain. CCC said it would happen awhile ago. Good job CCC.
ReplyDeleteYou guys are whimps! We live in WNY for gods sake! A couple inches of snow and some sleet?! Man you guys are all grasping for straws here at last night being anything other than NBD! I was zipping around in my 4x4 vehicle and snow tires, didn't phase me one bit. In fact I was a tad over the speed limit. Still surprised at all the bread and milk that was still available for purchase...Sorry folks but last night was NBD...you're all sour bc it wasn't some epic ice storm....SPRING is coming! NBD folks!
ReplyDeleteI know for a fact you weren't going over the speed limit because no where I went could I get anywhere near the speed limit in my 4x4. I didn't see an accident, just a ton of people tailgating and being stupid instead of going slow enough for the conditions but not so slow that we are basically stopped.
Delete2 inches of snow and ice...YAWN
DeleteWinter after tonight has come to an end! It is over no snow storms and a warm up next week. After suffering through the coldest February in history we get rewarded with an early spring. Remember folks when we get that warm-up at the end of next week the day will be mid March and when was the last time we get a big snow storm after the 15th of March? So all you snow storm lovers forget it and hit the road.
ReplyDeleteYup! Pack it in snow storm lovers, your season is over! Will just have to wait till next winter, NBD though!
Delete7:50, 7:59, 8:02 trolling anon is one in the same talking to themselves.
DeleteThere were cars littered around 490 guardrails last night. Private contractors plows were slipping and sliding as they pushed heavy wet snow in driveways.
We've had big storms anytime in March, April and unfortunately a 10" storm in May circa 1990. You're really an uninformed dolt that's fun to toy with.
I'm also going to guess that trolling anon doesn't have a 4x4 other than a prepubescent Tonka, and was actually at home in moms basement last night because she wouldn't let the little troll take her car out.
DeleteHe probably is looking forward to the snowmelt so he he can uncover his sandbox...and really have some fun with that tonka truck.
Delete*plays violin* So longgggggggggg Winter! March is NBD!
DeleteAnd I am the 7:50 and 8:02 but not the 7:59....proof there's more people out there rattling your cages than just me! NBD though!
DeleteLast time we had a snow staorm after March 15th? Last year? Did I win?
ReplyDeleteThis is from the NWS for the middle of next week. What does this mean???
ReplyDeleteWILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NUDGING UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT COULD GET
JUST YET GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5/6 DAYS AWAY AND NO CONFIDENCE YET
ON THE EXACT TIMING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY WELL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFSET OF THE NORMAL HIGH/LOW FORECAST
TIMES. TEMPS COULD BE ALREADY BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...OR IT COULD BE 50 DEGREES. OTHER POSSIBILITIES WILL HAVE
TO EXAMINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND WE GET MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
THE TIMING SUCH AS THE RISK OF FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
Better get to Wegmans and The Home Depot now...and then over to Dicks for a canoe. As long as we are ready for the possible/impending doom, then for sure...........NBD.
DeleteIt means we had all better panic!!!
DeleteWarm air coming that is what it means!
ReplyDeleteThunderstorms???
ReplyDeleteHelp us CCCC!!!!
ReplyDeleteWhen will Spring get here? Are we in for a wet and messy March and April?
Will there be snow on the ground come Christmas???
Spring technically is here. March 1st is the start of meteorological spring.
DeleteThere may or may not be snow on the ground next Christmas :P
DeleteLooks like a False Spring start for next week as CCCC has been saying. Latest GFS shows another Arctic High dropping down. Spring will never arrive!!!!
ReplyDeleteThat arctic high looks transient in the ensemble means, and actually doesn't even exist at all in the GGEM ensemble mean. Winter may fight hard to remain in the picture going forward, but Spring will win more often than not. When do we formally consider spring to have sprung anyway? For me it's when periods of snow cover become sporadic, which is pretty much what we'll be contending with starting early to mid next week (rogue snowstorm possibilities notwithstanding). So in my view it's an "early" spring...about 2-3 days early. Which is kind of like calling someone overweight when they're 2-3 lbs heavier than average.
ReplyDeleteThanks CCCC for your reply. What is this about NWS calling for Thunderstorms and Flooding next week a possibility?
ReplyDeleteNo idea to be honest :/
DeleteSo cccc you're saying we'll start seeing green grass early to mid next week ("periods of snow cover become sporadic")? Not at my house! Gotta think it will take longer than that to melt down the snow pack on my lawn.
ReplyDeleteObviously it won't melt instantly, but temps in the 40s and 50s will eat away at our pack in rather quick fashion. Probably numerous patches of green by late in the week.
DeletePatches of green in a sea of brown is more like it. I'll be more excited about the warm weather when all that mud starts to dry out.
DeleteSW
Mud season is the absolute worst.
DeleteWhat does SW stand for by the way? I know someone whose initials are SW.
Given the forecast. I'd guess Salt Water.
Deletelol
DeleteOr maybe Shortwave?
Not seeing this big warmup as prolonged unless you define warm as more like average temperatures. Yes we may hit 50 a day or two late next week, but around 40 +/- 5 seems more likely.
ReplyDeleteOK sure warm compared to where we've been but really just average.
Back to the cold and snow. A few more inches to add to the snow pack we have already. Yes! Want to keep winter around as long as possible.
ReplyDeleteAt least we will all remember March 3rd as The Great Ice Storm of 2015! It was crazy man! A significant icing event! I for sure will never forget it! We were all there! Heck, even Brian Williams was there!
ReplyDelete"There I was, standing with CCCC helping him chisel 18 solid inches of ice off of his car windshield. We had just gotten the last gallon of milk and loaf of bread out of wegmans. I was irritated that it was wheat and not multi-grain, but we can't be choosey in times like these. The ice is coming down in buckets, everything is coated! When will it end?! Will we make it home? Will we have power? Stay tuned..." -The Great Brian Williams
CCCC think that you have an admirer or stalker -- not sure which.
DeleteDamn Anon 7:45 I thought you hit that telephone pole.
DeleteI think it's the guy whose cocksure forecast for all rain went down in flames, and he's still desperately trying to cope with the bitter disappointment.
DeleteCCCC, I hate to say it, but the warm up we've been waiting for is looking feebler with each model run, the arctic high is just too strong right now...
ReplyDeleteI agree. With each new model run, it looks like 50s are not in our forecast next week. Doesn't it seem that the months of the season a running a month behind lately? February was our January and March will be our February. If this is the case, we should still see snow piles in the middle of May.
DeleteYeah I'd agree. I'm no model reader but according to Wunderground "best forecast" low to mid 40s ~Tues & Weds & Thurs next week, then back to low 30's for Friday and Saturday. Average high now is 39 and by next week will be 41 or so. So this so-called "warm up" must be relative to where we've been, but not above average temps.
DeleteAndy
I'd also add that with each forecast the last few weeks the warmer temps modeled 5-7 days out were always scaled back as the actual day approached. Just too much ice, snowpack and lingering cold.
DeleteAndy
Thanks Andy! People seem to forget how much an impact the snow and ice cover has on the temperatures. Also, Lake Ontario will have a huge impact on our temperatures this Spring, keeping temps below average.
DeleteNot to be Debby Downer on Scotti's forecast I believe he is way off in seeing 50's next week. There is way too much of a snow pack for temps to rise that far.
Would agree with the amount of the snow pack, we will not begin to see even a hint of green or let along brown (dirty) for several, several weeks -- possibly tile sometime in mid-April. Plus if we keep getting 2-3 inches of snow here and there, it will only add to the snow pack we currently have. Matter of fact still hard to see where some mailboxes are located, even with some warmth in the 20's and 30's. As it has been said, Spring will be LATE in arriving. So don't hold your breath for warmth, unless you are traveling to Miami where it is currently in the 80's.
ReplyDeleteI would be extremely impressed if our snowpack held on through mid April. Especially since highs by then will be averaging in the 50s with a sun angle equivalent to late August...
DeleteTwo weeks until the vernal equinox means the Sun is still south of the celestial equator. That's comparable to two weeks after the autumnal equinox, or the first week of October. Still, it's high enough to melt snow!
DeleteIt was 24 degrees the other day and I could make a snow man with the packy snow in my yard. The sun is getting stronger everyday. It is going to get harder and harder to maintain the cold and snowpack. Even a sunny week in the low 40's is going to start shrinking that pile.
ReplyDeleteA stunted midweek warmup does not portend a pattern change cancel. The shift is still going to happen, and we're probably going to get very little snow during the next few weeks. The final week of the month might provide an opportunity for a rogue last gasp snow event, but it remains abundantly clear that winter in its consistent form is about to head back into hibernation.
ReplyDeleteCCCC, I have to disagree about little snow.
DeleteCare to say why Weatherguy? CCCC isn't the only one saying little snow the next few weeks. From everything I've been seeing that is the pretty consistent thought.
DeleteImagine all but the biggest piles melting and temps getting into the low to mid 40's .. everyone getting ready for spring to spring for real.. and we get a historic blizzard March 27th. I could see that.
ReplyDeleteThat was me..forgot to add my name. Send hate mail to Caledonia..
DeleteThe pattern is definitely changing as CCCC previously stated, but it doesn't look as though the cold is going to get locked up back where it belongs this time year despite the insanely positive AO and negative PNA. I think it'll remain more progressive than not, but with the cold so close by (not to mention extensive ice coverage and snow pack), we would be foolish not to expect a lot of moisture to ride through the progressive jet and meet the relatively cold air. That's just my opinion...
ReplyDeleteEven if we do get a lot of activity there's nothing to support much of it being snow unless we get very lucky.
ReplyDeleteHuh!? CCCC, your not making a lot of sense right now. Idk if your studying too hard for midterms or what, but the upcoming pattern looks a lot like a typical March setup, meaning a 50/50 chance at the very least, in fact, the way models are trending, we would be lucky to get rain for the system the end of next week, a system models have been showing for actually quite a few days now.
DeleteA system which, if it developed, would occur during a positive EPO, a neutral/negative PNA, a positive NAO and a positive AO. The arctic high keeps it well south of us on the GFS, and even then it's mostly a rain system until it reaches the coastal plain. Not only would we need the storm to track right for us, we would also need it to slow down and team up with the transient arctic high at just the right moment, in a hostile pattern for both snow and slower storms. So, color me thoroughly unenthused.
DeleteAnd don't get me wrong, I would love one more good snowfall before spring comes ripping in for good, so I'm not just tearing any snow potential to shreds due to personal desires. It's simply a hostile pattern for significant snowfalls.
DeleteWell stated, I'm not saying it is set in stone, but with how dominant the cold has been recently and how the models can't seem to peg any warm up in advance, I tend to lean more toward snow vs rain through the next week or two in March. Plus, idk why, but the MJO trumps most of the teleconnections in my book based on past winters. Time will tell which season wins out though. And I would rather have it warm up tomorrow and be done with winter, but it just doesn't seem to be in the cards for at least another 2 weeks.
DeleteExcept the models have had this warmup pegged for the past week, including all of the teleconnection values. And the MJO is heading markedly into Phase 6, which strongly favors warmth in the east. And then even more markedly into Phase 7, which still favors warmth.
DeleteActually phase 7 promotes more of a ridge in Pacific, but we have to look at the amplification of the signal. The phase 6 signal begins as weak, then gradually amplifies before wheeling into a well amplified phase 7, which is exactly what the PNA ensembles reflect by the middle of the month. The strange thing is, with all of the teleconnections stacked against winter in the East when the MJO is in a mod/strong phase 6, models still don't torch us when it should...
ReplyDeleteIt's not enough to just have a ridge in the Pacific though...if it's too far west in the Pacific then the resultant downstream trough forms in the western CONUS, and we warm up as a ridge pumps. In any event this is the MJO phase composite for JFM:
Deletehttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/JFM/combined_image.png
Phase 7 isn't as strongly mild as Phase 6, but it's still mild. I'm not sure what's going to drive that arctic high with literally everything stacked against it. Then again, we're all painfully familiar with random great lakes cutters in the midst of cold patterns. Maybe in this case the rise in the PNA opens the doors a little bit, but it's not like we're going to get some massive western ridge poking up to Santa's house at that time. The GFS and its ensembles are kind of alone in tempering the warmup to the extent that they depict, and I'm left wondering if they might be overdoing the PNA rise.
I'm very interested in seeing if that high amplitude Phase 7 can carry over into the colder Phase 8, especially since some of the model depictions are literally off the charts.
Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight!
DeleteIt could be that 4C's and Weatherguy are both correct? I think we can all agree that the bitter, bitter cold is done for this year..can we not? Euro weeklies show average to cooler than average right into the first week of April. Warmup could be slightly muted but we don't go back to waking up with -3 temps either.
DeletePerhaps I should be quiet and just look out the window, while rocking slowly back and forth, because I said pretty much nothing here?
That warm up for next week that some had talked about really seems to be fleeting. Right now next Tue and Weds might be slightly above average but then it's back to ~10 degrees below normal through Sunday 3/15 (Wunderground). Accuweather (LOL) is showing Monday 3/16 at 53, then back to below normal for many days.
ReplyDeleteThe good thing is that it appears to be fairly dry and sunny after this weekend which should give the snowpack time to sublimate a bit which hopefully reduces flooding down the road.
Still want to enjoy winter, but spring when it finally gets here, will be nice.
Andy