The End is Near
The end of the real snowfall season here in WNY, that is. Not completely over, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. Remember when this blog was full of "we won't see snow this winter," and "I'm calling it now, no more than 70" of snow." Well, we made it. Officially, we are over 95" of snow on the season, although that number is very skeptical, given the consistently low measurements from the airport this year (and previous years). So, for the purpose of being realistic, it is safe to say we have reached the 100" mark so far this season. The NWS has posted a summary of the lake effect events this winter (2014-2015 Lake Effect Season), and surprisingly, but not surprisingly, Rochester missed out on the big snow in every single event. So, most of that 100" of snow came from "nickel and dime" snows as a result of lake effect events, or synoptic systems. We aren't in an ideal location to get big lake snow from either lake, but it is possible. Not this winter.
Looking at the next 7 days, it doesn't look like we'll be adding onto our totals in any significant way. As far as that "warm-up" goes next week, there are mixed signals. GFS wants a bring a cold front down from Canada and squash the 50s further south of our area. Given the history of this winter, I'm more inclined to believe that, but that's just going by the trend this winter. Still, mid 40s are a very good bet by Wednesday, and at this point, I think many of us are quite looking forward to it! Which is kind of sad! Here's to a nice, sunny, warm summer :)
Average temps right now are around 40.. by the end of the month the average is around 50.( For anyone wondering and not wanting to look it up). So even if we are 5 below average everyday of the month we end up in the 40's very soon. On average.
ReplyDeleteI had predicted 75"-85" for the season based on historical patters for Nov and Dec. It was about playing the odds based on those patterns. Mother nature proved me wrong by slamming us in Feb and I'm glad!!
ReplyDeleteI'd say over 100" isn't a problem given that Mar and April average around 18" between them. And actually we probably are over 100" given the fishy snow measurements at KROC.
Andy
at least there aren't any more zero's on the forecast-John
ReplyDeleteThe GFS is all alone on its island of cold bias, tempering the warmup earlier than the other model suites. In other news, the GFS ensemble mean for the MJO is now literally off the charts:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_full.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_BC_phase_21m_full.gif
Other ensembles are less amplified, but still very strong. I'm left wondering what sort of impact that might have down the line, especially if it carries into Phase 8.
The second one is the bias corrected version by the way. Just to clarify the distinction.
DeleteSo when looking at the MJO temp composites the FMA period is warm in phase 7 with phase 8 turning colder as warmth shifts West. For the MAM period it is opposite. How do you know which one to use? February thru April or March through May?
DeleteI just use FMA because it has March in the middle. I really wish I could find monthly composites instead of trimonthly ones though.
DeleteI have to say I am about done with winter at this point. What a stretch it has been day after day, even when the sun is shinning the wind is blowing and the snow is drifting. I am starting to get a bit tired of 3am wakeup calls and all night shifts, but I have no right to complain I wanted the snow. With the way this winter has panned out so far, and with the GFS' persistence in squashing the pending warm up to a minimal one at best. I am going to say winter will have another surprise before it is over. I don't think we are done with the snow just yet. I will be watching the next weekend time frame with some interest. The ECMWF, GFS and CMC all have a storm in that time frame, with how much cold air in question. I wouldn't be surprised with anything at this point, where ice the "Ice Storm poster", who knows.
ReplyDeleteHow many days/early mornings have you plowed this season?
DeleteHow many of those were just in Feb?
Tonight will be my 6th double shift. I don't have a 3am count for the season, but I have had 3 this week and it was a relatively quiet week. I had over 150 hours overtime in February alone and now over 250 for the season. I cant complain the money is good. I am just a bit worn out at the moment.
DeleteMany of us have appreciated the work of ALL of the snow plow operators this Winter, especially during the month of February. Many would have not been able to get to/from work without them. So a big shout out THANK YOU to each of them for doing an excellent job thus far. But remember winter is not over with yet -- still more snow to come.
DeleteLatest from KW: "Latest GFS model run says...enjoy whatever thaw we get next week...there is lots of winter mischief to come thereafter. Hmmm."
ReplyDeleteAny validity to this or is he grasping at straws? I know some have voiced their opinion at this thought. I am undecided as to whether I would enjoy another storm or curse it. I am feeling spring fever as if today with the sunshine we hAd and prospect of 40's next week. Feb was a long month.
If I remember correctly the GFS was the first to latch onto Decembers not likely, cutoff low in a progressive zonal flow, snow storm; which, had no business occurring when it did. It was also the first model to crush our January thaw thought process. It is a long way out and I AM tired of winter; but, I will never wish against a possible snow storm, regardless of how I feel physically. It is just not in me to do so.
ReplyDelete1) The GFS is still by itself in crushing the warmup quickly
ReplyDelete2) It was actually the LAST model to catch onto the December cutoff. I actually remember not even giving it any thought for several days because I was so dead certain it was wrong in its no-storm depiction. Then again, this is the "new and improved" GFS which has yet to go off into lala land with any storm depictions.
Yeah its been 100 % from the get go. It hasn't missed a beat. I Can set my watch to it. I would trust it to the end. Okay maybe I shouldn't have so much faith in it, or in any of the models by them selves. We will see, it is early and stranger things have happened. Either way it is back off to work for me and I DO NOT plan to enjoy myself regardless of what the GFS is predicting.
ReplyDeleteYesterday AccuWeather (lol) had our first 50 degree day as Monday March 16th. This mornings update pushed that to March 25th.
ReplyDeleteMight reach it on the 10th with enough sun.The threat of winter weather will be with us for awhile.. non stop winter weather is over.
DeleteIdk what to make of system for next weekend. It's a very unfamiliar setup that isn't at all supported by climo.I wonder if the MJO has anything to do with it (as CCCC shakes his head)... In all seriousness though, it really is going to be dependent on how firm the high holds it's ground and if we get a backdoor cold front to slide in at the right time.
ReplyDeleteNbd next weekend and beyond.the temperatures will be warm can you say spring?
ReplyDeleteIf you think winter is truly gone; think again -- look at the winter storms and blizzards that has gone during the month of March. As many have been saying Spring will be late in coming, and temperatures will warm up VERY slowly. So don't expect the 50's or 60's degree weather til sometime towards the end of April, perhaps as late as May, unless you live in the southern states; but even they are experienced record cold this winter. For those who LOVE the cold and snow -- you got it this year. Hope you have enjoyed it thus far, still more to come.
DeleteKW and JN hinted about next weekend; especially on Saturday. Mentioned that winter is not gone by a long shot and that it is something to watch for. Perhaps one of the last Winter Storms for the season and it might be a good one. Will need to wait and see.
ReplyDeleteDid notice last night on the news that JN looked a little depressed with the perhaps warm temperatures for this week; so I think he is hoping for a Winter Storm next weekend; otherwise, what will he has to talk about.
There is nothing there look at the 12z gfs and Euro runs.Please it is over and stop pretending one last storm will happen because that is what happens in March.Even CCCC sees the writing on the wall. Give it up please.
ReplyDeleteSo it seems we have two camps right now: the "spring is in full bloom and there definitely won't be any more storms" camp and the "winter won't be gone until May" camp. When presented with two extremes the most reasonable stance to take is somewhere in the middle. So it goes like this, and it's been mentioned many times already:
ReplyDelete-Our period of *consistent* winter is over.
-We can still get brief periods of winter-like weather, including snow events.
-The warmer pattern is still on, but may fall back *somewhat* for the final week of the month, when average high temperatures are in the mid to upper 40s anyway.
There you have it, a nifty compromise for the two competing camps. Based on teleconnections, ensemble means and the Typhoon Rule; evidence instead of blind emotion.
Quite gusty outside right now...definitely wasn't expecting that. Also had a dream last night that it was 80 degrees and sunny before the leaves had started growing in. My last gut feeling/premonition was that February would be a gangbusters winter month with a lot of cold and storm activity. Could this be a precursor too? Very unlikely, but it's still fun to dream...
Late fall and winter is my favorite time of year. But right now I'm hoping your gut leads us to the promised land. I'm ready for the next season to start.
DeleteWhat about next week CCCC? What is your gut feeling?
ReplyDeleteJN and KW will be tempering that excitement for next weekend and beyond because all models showing nothing but warmer air hitting the region. After that brutal February you just knew that the whole month of March would be a lamb. Awesome because the money spent on heat and plowing has been enough.
ReplyDelete"We can still get brief periods of winter-like weather, including snow events."
DeleteIs that uncle Phil? My screen on phone shows it very small. Lol
DeleteBoth JN and RC are stating the weekend is something to watch for possible winter weather to return. What are folks seeing or is it just their way to trying to boost rating? Have to admit the other station's weather folks are happy for the warmer temps we will be seeing this week; however, 10 seems disappointed and not just excitement.
ReplyDeleteThey are boosting the ratings as usual. Nothing this week but rain if that.
ReplyDeleteStarting with clear skies I think we can add 4 degrees onto the high that was forecast for today. Hoping the last of the ice on my roof melts.
ReplyDeleteCheck out NWS for details, but it does indeed appear there is a good chance of quite a bit of moisture heading our way sometime in the sat - sun timeframe. Seems more likely to be a warm (rain) event but who can say 100% at this point? (Answer: the NBDealer, that's who!)
ReplyDeleteSW
The Flower City will get a historic ice or rain storm or blizzard within the next 6 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteCome on Blizzard guy, give us something specific!
DeleteRay
KW is still saying winter returns for last two weeks of March.
ReplyDelete