BATTLE OF THE SEASONS
The calendar might say Spring but Old Man Winter isn't ready to give up just yet. Cold air will continue to pour south into western New York through Sunday and as this air moves across Lake Ontario, some late season lake effect snow will develop. As is typical with lake effect, some places won't see much while other locations could pick up 2-5" by the time the lake snows diminish Sunday afternoon.
Despite plenty of sunshine and high pressure moving in, temperatures will stay well below average into early next week with highs Monday only in the mid 20s once again.
Spring will finally make a brief appearance midweek as low pressure develops to our west and a warm front surges north into western New York.
As gusty southwesterly winds develop, temperatures will jump into the middle and even upper 50s in some areas. Rain showers will be widespread as the warm front lifts north into the region and this, combined with the warm temperatures, could lead to some minor flooding concerns during this time.
Looking further ahead, the persistent pattern that has been in place for the last few months will return with a strong ridge over the Western U.S and a deep trough in the East. This will guarantee more cold weather and the potential for more snow as we close out March.
Bottom Line: Winter isn't over yet!
Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones
So NBD? Lol
ReplyDeleteTruly an amazing, consistent pattern.
ReplyDeleteLooks just like a winter wonderland...more like January...in Lyons.
ReplyDeleteClearly we've gone back in time to the middle of January while our calendars lie to us.
ReplyDeletePretty much normal for March in this region. I'm gonna guess that now we're fairly close to our median snowfall for March.
ReplyDeleteAndy
Not the cold, though…well below average. This current setup does resemble early to mid January…dry and cold.
DeleteMeanwhile, out west, their persistent ridge of High pressure has scorched them and made one of the worst droughts on record. I wonder which winter will have the switch…a trough out west, with our friends in CA getting a wet, cool winter, while we get the ridge off the east coast that delivers us a SW flow…and a warm, sometimes wet winter…like 2011-12. We have had three pretty decent winters in a row now, from the snow lovers' perspective, even though each one has looked different.
Chris, no disagreement that we are well below average today, but low temps in the teens are not at all abnormal for mid-late March around here. Looking back as far as 2011, every March except for 2012 had low temps in the teens on a few days between mid and late March.
ReplyDeleteI'm hoping by mid-April the switch is just thrown from Winter/cold Spring to Summer :)
Andy
Andy, I hear ya. I am referring to the whole month being below average. Yes, we have had three consecutive years with March being below average in temps, which was not the case in the first decade of the 21st century.
DeleteUp north, there is dilemma with the snowmobile clubs as most are low or out of funds, landowner permission ends March 31, yet still good riding…I rode 126 miles Friday and Saturday.
Happy trails!
DeleteAndy
I would say at this point winter is still winning out over spring. Yes the geese have been fling and the possums and skunks are roaming. Some flooring bulbs are showing signs of life. I don't care what anyone else has said or will say. The weather today and again forecasted next weekend is not spring. I will give in and say spring has arrived once the nighttime silence has been replaced by the noisy peepers. Until we get the deafening calls of the peeper back at my house, winter is still here, no if and or buts about it.
ReplyDeleteI don't know what the average temperature has been so far for the month. I will say though, I will bet once March is in the books, that it will also have been WELL BELOW average for temperature like the previous months. LES in middle to late March is not normal during any winter season. How do people feel about snow and cold in April, I think we might find out. Florida bound with the family for Easter break will make everything better, cant wait!!!
ReplyDeleteAll i can say is pray for the feral cats and dogs who are struggling to survive in this bitter cold.A high inthe low 20's with a wind chill making it feel like 4 or 5 outside at this time of year is just wrong on so many levels.I don't care what anybody says,this weather is just bull shit!
ReplyDeleteWhere is NBD? Two days in a row to wake up to snow and temps in the 20's or below,. So NBD if you happen to come out of your NBD Cave, and see this white stuff on the ground, it is called snow and it is still winter. The cold temps are expected to last for the next several weeks. Heard by mid-April we might begin to see the temps return to what they should be normally. Winter is certainly not done, and plans to stick around for a little bit longer. For those who like the snow and cold -- enjoy!
ReplyDeleteWow glad you are excited about an inch of snow in March. It is still NBD for most normal human beings. We have had BIG snow storms in March in the past. So ,if this floats your boat as a big deal good for you. It is NBD for most who remember winters of the past in Rochester. February was a big deal for winter and as I have said numerous times we are being rewarded with a relatively meek March as snow goes.
ReplyDeleteYou said rain, spring was here and snow was done weeks ago. You were wrong! Now run away with your tail tucked between your legs.
DeleteAgree with Anon 9:49. NBD you bragged for post after post that winter was over any precipitation would get would be in the form of rain. Just wanted to point out to you as you were so firm in your belief that winter was over, and no more snow -- that you might not have been correct in your forecast for the month of March.
DeleteNever said that I was excited about an inch or two of snow in March. What I was stating is that NBD blogger who repeatedly posted on this blog that winter was over, spring is here, and for other to "get over it". Just wanted to point out to NBD that they were incorrect with your forecast about any precipitation which would be seen would be in the form of rain, and that it was not. So NBD if you are going to consistently tell others that you know what you are talking about, you might also be prepared to admit when you are incorrect. For someone who likes to say NBD, stating that you were incorrect should be NBD for you.
DeleteHe doesn't give two solitary schnitzels about being correct or incorrect, he wants us to insult him so that his itty bitty bit will grow bigger and make him feel tingly. Presumably because his waifu pillow isn't satisfying him anymore. I say we stop talking about him, or towards him, because it's neither constructive nor entertaining at this point.
DeleteMarch is close to normal for snowfall and the month isn't over!
ReplyDeleteWould agree -- we just need the temps to rise to where they normally should be in the 40's.
DeleteI agree with NBD anon. March has been more like spring and less like winter.
ReplyDeleteMarch temps have been below normal most of the month and it''s snowing on march 26th.We had temperatures in the low teens with wind chills of 4 above three days ago.Where has it felt like spring this month?
DeleteLike I said in a post back in early Feb. We will still see piles of snow in early May. It will go from Winter right into a Hot and Dry Summer. That is the way it is. Spring is no longer a season. Same with Fall. Only two seasons we have here in WNY. Winter and Summer!
ReplyDeleteIf our current El Nino persists into the summer as the CPC is predicting, then that would somewhat favor a cooler summer. That "somewhat" shifts closer to "likely" if the Nino strengthens, and there are some indications that it might.
DeleteWe only have two seasons though? Really? That's just dumb. There are four distinct seasons here, and I hate saying things like "it's not up for debate," but...it's really not up for debate. Also I guarantee that we aren't going to have piles of snow in May.
Some serious funposting today, wow...
ReplyDeleteI'd say it's been a tale of two seasons this month, first week was decidedly wintry while the past two weeks have been more springlike. We're averaging nearly 3 degrees below average on temps though, and that departure looks to maintain or even grow a little before the month ends. And I'll place my bets on slightly below average snowfall for the month as well.
As Matt said -- winter is not over yet!
ReplyDeleteProject low of 15 degree for Friday night -- that is not Spring like temps. Heard that temps are projected to be below normal for several more weeks. Have a feeling we won't see much of a Spring, and that temps will slowly rise to the 50's towards end of April, beginning of May. Though I like the winter and snow -- I am done with it and simply want to see Spring, green grass, and flowers starting to come up; but will need to hold on for several more weeks. Oh well, as someone likes to say on this blog...NBD.
ReplyDeleteUpper 50's and ALL RAIN tomorrow???! Looks like Spring weather to me! Sorry folks, NBD on this one! Will be TOO WARM tomorrow for any type of snow! Will be ALL RAIN and NBD! Spring is in the air folks!!
ReplyDeletei lol'd
DeleteEarly next week could see a northern stream system redevelop off the coast and bring some snow. Very low confidence at the moment.
ReplyDeletevery low confidence = grasping at straws
Deletestop getting people worked up and giving false hope!
Winter is OVER!
N.
B.
D.
http://www.quickmeme.com/img/c5/c5492eaa41a0f753a04f356d50620ddff99c01bec0df4c6e925982320275daae.jpg
DeleteGFS 10 day snow map:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015032412/gfs_asnow_us_41.png
GGEM:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015032412/gem_asnow_us_40.png
Come on CCCC why do you put this junk out there like it is a big deal to get the snow people excited? It is April next week and we will not get a good amount of snow so who cares please stop. You know models have been showing things a week out and nothing comes from it. This has been the pattern the last 3 weeks. Please give it up and study.
ReplyDeleteYeah CCCC, please stop posting weather things on a weather blog. No one comes here for that, we just want to wishcast and spam "NBD" five hundred times. Also it has literally never snowed in early April.
DeleteTo AnonymousMarch 24, 2015 at 2:16 PM,
DeleteIf you want a weather forecast then read the forecast and don't look at the blog. This is for a discussion about what people believe might happen not a forecast. Stop being a jackass.
Fletch
Stop being so rude and annoying.
DeleteThe 18z NAM produces a heavy wet snowfall during Thursday night and Friday morning. All of the usual NAM caveats apply. I give it a 1 in 10000 chance of actually happening as depicted. The GFS and GGEM yield mostly rain followed by a slushy back-end coating and some limited lake effect, which is a far more likely outcome.
ReplyDeleteGlad you are citing the NAM but at least you did explain it is never right as you have said numerous times in the past. But keep throwing that little bone out to the Snowdogs ha ha get it?
ReplyDelete*Almost* never right, it was actually the first model to catch onto the final track for the GHD storm. And if Snowdog wants to bite my bone then that's his own decision ( ͡° ͜Ê– ͡°)
DeleteKW said the plot thickens for Thursday night into Friday with Euro suggesting what NAM said as pointed out by CCCC. KW said he wants to see what the overnight models show.
ReplyDeleteI am seeing an accumulating snow for Thursday night into Friday. Winter is not over. Next Monday Tuesday looks interesting as well. Where is NBD man????
ReplyDeleteMatt said almost the same this morning; that Winter is not done, and the potential for snow towards the end of the week is there. So spring is definitely not making an appearance any time soon. So NBD what are you see via the maps, charts, and weather website that you visit.
ReplyDeleteRC did not even mention snow this morning for Thursday night into Friday so NBD.
ReplyDeleteWhy are you watching KW, JN, and RC -- they don't know what they are talking about, and tend to hype up the potential for winter storm weather anyway. Stick to those who we all relay on, that not being 10.
DeleteI have been coming on here to read this blog throughout the winter season as I find it interesting. Not sure if anyone got the memo, but we live in a place that has NO SPRING! And yes, it snows in March and in April....gosh, in May as well....Scott said we are going to have unseasonably cold temperatures through MAY. I love the anonymous posters (not being sarcastic) when they say NBD and it is going to rain, early spring etc.--Because I want to believe them when they say that because I am sick of the cold. And CCCC, yes you appear to be very knowledgeable, but you cannot seem to take criticism well and take things personally. Maybe it is your age and level of maturity...IDK, but you should be able to take people making comments on your posts because quite frankly you are they one posting the most often.
ReplyDeleteYep, unfortunately we do get snow in May. In fact 30 of the last 74 seasons or about 41% of the time we get a trace or more. It's a sad fact and it wouldn't surprise me if this year isn't one of them.
DeleteAndy
fixing my bad grammar. Should read, it would surprise me if this year isn't one of them.
DeleteThis is criticism: "CCCC you're full of yourself and you feed the trolls too much." Both of which are completely true, I do keep feeding the trolls and I get way too full of myself. Like, a lot. My efforts to fix both of those things have been fruitless so far. And Speadsheet Guy once said the same thing you suggested, that I have maturity issues. I eventually came to realize that he wasn't wrong.
DeleteNow here's what I keep seeing: "CCCC stop hyping things ur dumb lol something something pied piper." Just useless taunts and untrue accusations. None of it is constructive or based in truth, and I'm certain some of it stems from misreading what I try to say. Nothing quite like saying a future storm is possible but not certain, trying as hard as possible to remain objective and not hype anything, then getting accused of hyping anyway when the storm doesn't happen.
Also can we not turn this place into Dr. Phil every few months? The last time it happened it only produced major rectal trauma and the second most try-hard post of my life. We all have flaws and negative traits, the end.
I had no idea that we got snow in May that frequently. Also please forgive me for yet another try-hard post -_-
DeleteNBD, CCCC...
Delete(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻
DeleteI do remember making a maturity comment. CCCC does sometimes get too wrapped up in duking it out with challengers.
DeleteBut he is very knowledgeable, particularly when it comes to reading the models and giving his interpretations. He can't win. If he talks about a possibility a NBDealer will imply he's a snow monger. If he doesn't do play by play during an event everyone asks why he won't play. But he drives much of the traffic with his frequent posts and I think most people like hearing his positions.
He's funny. It's an irreverant, not always suitable for work kind of humor. The kind where you look who's around and decide if it's ok to laugh. But usually pretty funny.
CCCC is correct. We all have quirks. That's what makes life interesting.
>tfw senpai gives you compliments ^_^
DeleteThing is that I never really think of it in terms of winning or losing. Trying to win the internet is dumb. But when I read something stupid or provocative my mind immediately goes into banter mode. It's how I've been conditioned over time and it's an extremely difficult tendency to stave off. It's a lot like a drug actually...perhaps not healthy for me or those around me, but damn is it fun. At least until it starts getting repetitive (hint hint Sgt. Enbeedee, you can definitely give us something better than the same rehashed bit every single day). Sometimes I wonder if my little diatribes just leave a bad taste in everyone's mouths, but then I remember that it doesn't matter because you are all just figments of my imagination anyway. Or maybe I'm sleep deprived. But modern science can't tell us everything...
CCCC take NBD for the troll that he is.
Deletehttp://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_50prcntil_2015032600f036.gif
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015032518/gfs_asnow_neus_6.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015032518/namconus_asnow_neus_11.png
Tomorrow is getting rather interesting I'd say. The 12z GGEM has less snow:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015032512/gem_asnow_neus_6.png
The 12z NAM had more:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015032512/namconus_asnow_neus_13.png
I'm going with a baseline of around 1 inch for now.
KW:
ReplyDelete"BTW, EURO model still pumping out 3-6" ROC to BUF Thu.night/Friday. That is NOT our fcst...but the model has been steadfast. Interesting."
https://twitter.com/whec_kwilliams/status/580832757728833536
Also why do we keep abbreviating the names of meteorologists from other stations? Will spelling them out give us a curse or something? I don't get it ._.
Hey NBD what are you saying for Thursday night into Friday. All others are predicting snow, and a mixed bag as to how much. So where is the Spring you have been talking about and predicting. Waiting to see what you have to say, and what maps and charts you are getting your information from. Remember when you say NBD we are not talking about the amount of snow, but more that you have been saying Winter is over, Spring is here -- any precipitation we get will be in the form of rain not snow. What is the basis for the question --- so what are you seeing for Thursday night into Friday.
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling we are in for a surprise tomorrow night into Friday.
ReplyDeleteI can't just be a figment of someones imagination because that would be solipsism and that just isn't rational or falsifiable.
ReplyDeleteColder temps I can ALMOST tolerate. But snow on the ground would pretty much make me lose it this late in the year.
I'm definitely not rational and perhaps not even falsifiable. Maybe I'm just a figment of YOUR imagination >___>
DeleteI'm not good at reading models, but is that an east coast storm coming up the coast on Easter weekend, according to the GFS?
ReplyDeleteIt's called SPRING RAIN....NBD!
DeleteIgnore anything models are saying 7-10 days out they have been doing this the last month with nothing coming about.
ReplyDeleteRAIN, THUNDER, LIGHTNING outside right now...hmmm, NBD but to me that is SPRING and NOT WINTER!
ReplyDeleteIt does NOT Rain in the Winter
It does NOT Thunder and Lightning in the Winter.
NBD folks, enjoy this spring rain storm!!!!
Snowing from Brockport west and south currently, and yes you can have thunder during snow storms....try not to be so irritatingly stupid.
ReplyDeleteAdam
No need to call people stupid.
DeleteIt's very accurate in this case though.
Delete33 with Heavy snow in Buffalo heading our way. Winter is over though according to NBD.
ReplyDeleteWinters over? I guess someone forgot to tell the snow covered robins in my yard that winters over.
DeleteStop it already,i could finally see the grass on my lawn and the flower bulbs coming up and now all i see is more snow.My god, somebody make it stop!
ReplyDeleteSure hope the easter bunny brings his snowshoes with him.Just so sick of snow and cold,they have record breaking heat in the midwest and we have snow,give me a break.
ReplyDeleteCalifornia here i come!
ReplyDeleteCan i come with you?
DeleteNBD! it's spring, no snow anywhere on the horizon, you are all hallucinating :)
ReplyDeleteyou have to wonder if they ever look out the window to see that it's snowing or just sit there beliving what the computer model tells them.
Deletewould agree -- looking out window at work right now. Have to say that there is this white fluffy stuff falling from the sky. Can someone tell me what it is. Oh yeah, that would be SNOW. NBD come out of our NBD cave, go outside, and see for yourself. It is snowing!
DeleteLooks like we're going to change this weekends egg hunt into a snowball fight.
ReplyDeleteAre people on here really enthusiastic about snow at this point? People are beating their chests that we are getting a little bit of wet snow. Wow,
ReplyDeleteFor those who love winter, and enjoy the last bits of it. Yes, they do enjoy seeing the snow. Come on it is Rochester, and it does and has snow before in late March, early April. If you are someone who regularly visits this blog, you would know that those who post are ones who like winter and the snow.
DeleteHa ha did anyone see the fantasy storm on the 12z GFS today? If only that verified we would have the biggest storm of the winter close to 20 inches for the Easter bunny to trek through. Again no way that is going to happen but it is interesting to look at.
ReplyDeleteCCCC what are you seeing as to snow amounts over the next 24-48 hours. Hearing different amount inch or less; two inches....Thanks.
ReplyDeleteI'm going with an inch or two.
DeleteThat storm on the GFS wouldn't just be the biggest storm of the winter...it would be one of the biggest in our region's history. We'd be talking full tilt blizzard, multiple feet of concrete, widespread power outages and clogged roads for days, children receiving their Easter baskets via pigeon mail...just a total disaster. You don't need me to remind you of how utterly next to impossible that scenario is, so needless to say it's worth nothing at this point or probably ever. Of more immediate concern is the possibility of lake effect on a northerly flow, which could finally put the airport's snow total over 100 inches for the season. I thought today would do the trick, but we only managed 0.4 inches. So we remain in wait for KROC to join the 100 club like every single place around it.
ReplyDeleteIt's pretty funny that we've now gotten three separate snowfalls since NBD claimed it wouldn't snow anymore. Time to come up with some new material dude, beating a dead lolcow is no fun at all.
We'd "officially" be over 100 now if they knew how to measure @kroc!
DeleteYes CCCC but is it not true that both GFS and Euro both show this storm in close proximity with where the LP is located,?
ReplyDeletePlease stop anon 7:05 it is April 5th next weekend and btw the 18z GFS shows no storm sobbed bc spring is here
ReplyDeleteWe can still get snowstorms in early April...
ReplyDeleteCheck out May also! Ugh 1989 especially ... Sad but true.
DeleteCome on CCCC not like the one the 12z GFS showed.There you go throwing that bone out again to Snowdog.
ReplyDeleteThere you go putting words in my mouth again...
ReplyDeleteWe need to keep in mind how far out the system is, however, it does bear watching. Again, we have gotten snow in April and early part of May -- so nothing is impossible. Would agree with you CCCC, ever since NBD declared it is winter and no more snow; it has snowed. Maybe he is using reverse psychology on Mother Nature. Honestly as much as I have loved the winter with the snow, cold, crunch of snow as you hike the trails; really ready for it to be over. Want to see Spring; oh well -- we will just have to wait. Hey, isn't there a saying that "good things come to those who wait". Maybe we are just waiting for a really good, nice, sunny, warm Spring to arrive.
ReplyDeleteHow much snow did everybody get last night?????
ReplyDeleteWho had to shovel this morning????
Who had to clean off their car???
Anyone get the snow blower out??
Just curious what last night's so called event brought to everyone...
Anyone have some totals?
Nothin but some RAIN and NBD here!
Just reading through the comments on here and saw the quote someone put up that Kevin Williams said about 3-6 inches last night. Not his forecast but a model was showing that. I honestly don't know why anyone would quote anything by him. The guy is nothing but hype. If you are going to quote someone local outside of the people on channel 8 at least have it be the guys at 13. Quoting Kevin Williams is like quoting a snowman hoping for a blizzard when all it is is hope.
ReplyDeletePretty much all the people on this board were all giddy and hyped up yesterday and once again...they were ALL WRONG :)))
DeleteI read bogus quotes like "heavy snow moving in later!" "Snowball fights" etc..
I sat and laughed as I watched the Spring RAIN roll in.
NBD folks! :)
There will be a blizzard in the Flower City within the next 9 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteLOL... you crack me up. But I hope you're wrong this time!!!!
Delete1-3 overnight. Hardly spring like.
ReplyDeleteTell that to NBD, who still believes that the last couple of days it rained vs. snow.
Delete