Late Season Snow
I think most of us have been done with the snow and ready to say "goodbye" to winter 2014-2015 for the last month. But, Mother Nature has other plans. With more snow in the forecast tonight (several inches of lake fluff), and a few more shots of it next week, you might be asking, "is it rare to get snow this late into the season?" The answer - no! Going back through all the snowfall stats kept for Rochester, the average last date of 1" or more of snow is April 1. The latest we've ever gotten 1" or more of snow (officially at the airport) is May 10th! Can you say Mother's Day snow?! And just looking back at the last 15 years, 7 of those recorded 1" or more of snow in 24 hours right into April. So, given the severity of the last few months of winter, many of us just want to be done. But, we're not done. And that's not a rarity!
Also our average snowfall in April is 3.9 inches, plus we average about 3 days with measurable snow. Winter's icy tentacles really like to linger in WNY.
ReplyDeleteOk, let's just get this out of the way right at the beginning so we don't have to hear it again on this post.
ReplyDeleteNo big deal folks! No big deal Stacey! No big deal Matt! No big deal Kevin! No big deal Josh! No big deal Scott! No big deal CCCC! No big deal Snowdog! No big deal Farmington! No big deal SW and all you other anons! No big deal no big deal no big deal no big deal no big deal no big deal no big deal NBD NBD NBD NBD...Unless, of course, it turns out to be a big deal. Then I just won't say anything.
What a waste of time that was...of course you'll still hear it
DeleteI still would like to know...
How much snow did everybody get last night?????
Who had to shovel this morning????
Who had to clean off their car???
Anyone get the snow blower out??
Just curious what last night's so called "event" brought to everyone...
Anyone have some totals?
Nothin but some RAIN and NBD here!!!
I feel left out...
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ReplyDeleteNo worries, as there will NOT be measurable snow LOL.
ReplyDeleteYou all are grasping at straws here, trying to rile up the snow lovers and/or bread and milk hoarders!
Rest assured Spring is a comin'!
There will NOT be any type of significant event happening LOL
You people act as if the temp drops for a day and there's flurries in the air that means its Winter LOL!
Sorry folks, but Winter has come on gone, and any flurries you may see will be NBD!!!
Sorry Stacy but as you can see, the crazies on this blog are not ready to say goodbye to winter. Some are probably hoping we get snow in July.
ReplyDeleteModels are looking better and better for next weekend's Easter Storm. Could end up being a historic late season Nor'EASTER. Get it? :)
ReplyDeleteCCCC Do you think we may see watches issued middle next week??
Ratios are looking to be generously in our favor!
You are being sarcastic right? February was the only month when those models were remotely close to being correct about storms even a few days out let alone over a week.
DeleteModels showing Huge system moving up the coast Easter weekend..
DeleteThere will a blizzard in the Flower City within the next 8 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteWhere have you been all winter -- what you decide to reappear now!
DeleteI am this guy/gal's #1 fan. He/she has some space bar issues.
DeleteNot sure what anyone is seeing for Easter. I see nothing. I must be missing something.
ReplyDelete"potential" for a significant event
DeleteCCCC even said so in the last blog
Find the exact quote where I said that. Hint: you won't find it, because I never said it.
DeleteSnowdog they are trolls and do not pay attention. Easter will be sunny and 57 degrees. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI hope so.
DeleteEveryone needs to get a grip, there is NOT a significant storm happening Easter Weekend LOL
ReplyDeleteStop getting everyone riled up for an event that does not exists!
Easter weekend will absolutely be NBD, sorry folks!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Does the NBD guy have a job or does he live in his moms basement?
DeleteHe must live in the basement, and does not come out much - as he does not know what the white fluffy stuff falling from the sky it. He still thinks it is rain.
DeleteOk lets drop the NBD thing for a bit and get back to weather. For better or for worse CCCC and the experts, please feel free to comment on the potential for any such storm as the time approaches. Personally, I can't analyze models although I'd love to hear some commentary on how to read them. I rely on NWS reports which strike a nice balance between some technical commentary but still readable for novices.
ReplyDeleteWhat striking contrast this March has been to March 2012. I do a lot of firewood and I remember getting a lot of work done outside that spring in short sleeves before the calendar even turned to April. We've had some mild days this month but yet to see the warm, upper 50s+ days with sun which really dry things out. My property is still a real mess and I'd imagine the farmers will start to get nervous if we don't get weather conducive to drying in the next few weeks. Technically, I'm not sure exactly how wet we are in terms of watertable, but what's on top will remain a quagmire til we get those nice warm days with sun.
SW
Model reading is easy if you visit a site like Tropical Tidbits or Instant Weather Maps. All sorts of precip/snow maps, surface pressure maps, upper air charts, etc. What's trickier is deriving an accurate outlook from those models. That involves assessing how much sense a run makes, applying a model's typical biases, analyzing how a particular outcome came to existence on a run...stuff that takes awhile to learn. I've mostly just picked things up from perusing various forums and reading expert blogs over a long time. But one way a run's usefulness can be assessed pretty accurately is by looking at its ensembles, which basically take the same model at a lower resolution, and run it many times with different initial conditions in order to assess how likely a particular outcome is. If those many runs appear similar, then the depicted outcome is more likely to occur. If they're vastly different from each other then you have a lot of uncertainty. Or if, for example, the GFS shows a big snowstorm while its ensembles show nothing, then that particular GFS idea can be discounted. Sometimes a model defeats its ensembles, but those situations are exceedingly rare. Ensembles are also very useful for pattern analysis, especially when averaged together to form a mean. And then there are various non-computerized elements which can factor in as well, such as analogs and organic forecasting rules (the Typhoon Rule and the Bering Sea Rule come to mind). Let's not forget the ever frustrating teleconnections either, which can interact with each other in maddeningly complex ways. Lots of different things to look at just to tell if the GFS is kidding around or not, but that's why we have professional forecasters around. The stuff I've learned is AA amateur league compared to what they know.
DeleteThe entire 2011-12 winter was mild…one of the warmest on record, as a matter of fact.
DeleteWell the GFS has a big storm again...for the upper Midwest. Absolutely no agreement or consistency to be found anywhere, which is to be expected for a 10 day lead time. My advice is to forget about that time period until we get to the early part of next week.
ReplyDeleteI used 4x4 driving through the no big deal at 4 AM this morning. Roads hadn't been plowed and were real slippery. Got about 4 or 5 inches of fluff.
ReplyDeleteIt is NBD in Orlando this morning 61degs and sunny. This is the only time of year I don't miss the snow.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the 6z GEFS ensembles there will be a blizzard in The Flower City within the next 8 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDelete12z GFS still looks pretty interesting too for next weekend. I am sure our expert CCCC will be on top of this historic storm next weekend.
ReplyDeleteI'll wager my favorite pog that I won't be on top of anything historic.
DeleteJust telling you CCCC keep an eye on next weekend.
DeleteSupposed to be in 50's Friday. It is going to turn cold enough potentially for snow the next day? We have company leaving then to drive back to NC. I know it is too far out but let me know if this starts to materialize into something. I'm sure it won't. And I don't want to hear it from you NBD dude. Don't waste your time.
ReplyDelete12z Euro pretty jacked up for next Saturday keep an eye out.
ReplyDeleteIt is, but it takes the low right over us which is not good for snow. It would be a mostly heavy rain event with snow on the backside.
ReplyDeleteThe GFS takes a much much weaker low to our South and only gives light snow. It will fun to watch this week.
ReplyDeleteSnowdog it will not be a fun week to watch. It is NBD so please stop. There is no we have a storm next weekend.
ReplyDeletehttp://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
ReplyDelete"MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT DETAILS. FOLLOWING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...THE SOLUTIONS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND ON SHOWING A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE TRACKS OF THE SURFACE LOW HAVE RANGED FROM JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO A COASTAL LOW TRACK / AND SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS LOSING THE SYSTEM AT TIMES. THE EC AND SEVERAL OF THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THIS STRONGER SYSTEM...WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SHOWING A TREND TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME FRAME FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD."
So it seems we'll have some kind of system on our hands, the question is where it eventually tracks.
Here is the WPC's take:
ReplyDelete"BLENDED THE 00Z/28 GDPS WITH THE 06Z/28 GEFS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE FOR FRONTS AND PRESSURES--A NOD TOWARD MORE AMPLITUDE WITHOUT COMMITTING TO THE FULLY-PHASED EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE. EVEN THE "BLENDED CYCLONE" DAYS 6 AND 7 IN THIS NEW WPC PACKAGE HAS A SIGNIFICANT ATTENDANT UPTICK IN RAINFALL, SNOWFALL, AND SEVERE-WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE EAST."
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd
Just updated channel 10 forecast...Josh Nichols...says snow and 35 next Saturday.
ReplyDeleteOh boy now I am going to keep my snow blower out since Josh Nichols has a week in advance changed to 35 and snow. Thanks Anon 4:27 this was very helpful information.
DeleteSo what does all that mean CCCC a storm that will bring rain?
ReplyDeletePrecip type to be determined later.
ReplyDeleteCCCC do you think precip type will not be answered until mid week?
ReplyDeleteAt least. P-type wasn't even answered with the last event until 12 hours prior.
DeleteJN snow? next Saturday the suspense continues.
ReplyDeleteMajorly off topic but...
ReplyDeleteTI-GERS!
TI-GERS!
TI-GERS!
TI-GERS!
RIT!
RIT!
RIT!
RIT!
Today is a good day.
Just to be safe I dragged the plow back out of the barn today while the mud was still hard enough to get at it. That should pretty much squash any chance of big snows next weekend, so you can all thank me for preventing the big April blizzard of 2015.
ReplyDeleteAnd thanks for the post on models/ensembles cccc, appreciate it.
SW
Wonder where NBD was Friday night about 11:30am as it was snowing, the road were awful, icey and slippery. What happened to winter is gone, and any precipitation would be in the form of rain. So NBD, please explain Friday night, and waking up Saturday morning to a good 2-3 inches of snow. And, please don't go on your rant about:
ReplyDeleteI still would like to know...
How much snow did everybody get last night?????
Who had to shovel this morning????
Who had to clean off their car???
Anyone get the snow blower out??
Just rain and NBD.
Just wondering, as you forecast winter was over, and anything that would fall from the ski would be in the form of rain -- so explain where you got your information, what maps/charts did you review/study in order to give the prediction that you did.
Sorry meant 11:30pm on Friday night.
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