SCOTT'S 2007-2008 WINTER OUTLOOK
La Nina, colder than normal waters in the Equatorial Pacific, looks to be the dominant factor in the United States this winter. Fortunately, we have a lot of history to shift through to see what we may expect this winter. Since 1970 there have been 7 La Nina winters in Western New York and they have been amazingly consistent!
Average snowfall in those winters was 112" and temperatures averaged near or slightly above average!
I'd be a fool not to forecast a similar outlook for this winter. I expect December and March to have the most snow of the season. There will be frequent fluctuations in our temperatures. Plenty of thaws to melt the snow we get. This type of winter usually sees one of two BIG snowstorms in which over 12" would fall in one day. Nor'easter lovers may get a couple to watch up the coast this year. Are you hoping for a lot of snow or would you rather have more sun and mild air. Check back throughout the winter to see how my forecast is holding up!
Sounds like you are right on the money with this forecast.
ReplyDeletescott's always right ;)
ReplyDeleteWith your prediction, I'm going on a variable rate for my Gas & electric bill, because you stated it was going to be mild, in spite of the snow. So don't let me down Scotty
ReplyDeleteOh, the pressure! Yes for the entire winter we'll average near or above normal. I can guarantee you that we'll have spells of very cold air as well. Most La Nina dominated winters have at least two cold snaps within them. We'll see, Scott Hetsko.
ReplyDeleteSCOTT HOPE THIS WINTER IS MILD NO COLD SPELLS
ReplyDeleteOh there are ALWAYS at least a few cold snaps! This is Rochester after all!
ReplyDeleteScott H.
Finally some decent snowfall, come on Scott drum up a nice ski season, will ya?!
ReplyDeleteI'm rootin' for a MILD winter..Stay far away snow :)
ReplyDeleteHas your Winter Prediction changed yet Scotty !!!!!
ReplyDeleteis there a chance we could get frozen precipitation tonight as the temps are only a few degrees above freezing tops in the area.
ReplyDeleteIce won't be a major concern for the Genesee valley. Only the deepest valleys well South near the PA border have an ice concern overnight. Our next worry will be lake snow Monday evening and Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
Can you explain why here in Ontario, NY we are not getting the snow you keep talking about NWS has forecasted 7-9 inches last night where is it. Also they have 8-12 inches for us today where is that too.
ReplyDeleteHi Charles,
ReplyDeleteI suspect strong winds carried most of the heavier bands to your South last night. Newark, Wayne County recorded 12" of snowfall. You may do better tonight as winds are slower and more Westerly. 2-6" in your area is possible by Wednesday a.m. Please let us know!
Scott Hetsko
Any chance we could wind up with over a foot
ReplyDeleteHoping for some snow days from school. Any chance of that for December?
ReplyDeleteI don't think so Charles, heaviest snow continues to fall in Western and Central Monroe County Tuesday night.
ReplyDeleteMort,
ReplyDeleteDepends on where you are!
Scott
Watch for weather alerts to be issued later today. looking at the national map of Winter Weather Advisories you can see that there is a line of Freezing Rain Advisories in a straight line right toward us.
ReplyDeleteCome on Charles, Scott would be right on top of that... Besides that isn't going to help with your snow days, lol!
ReplyDeleteI never said that it would help with my snow day wishes. I am an avid weather enthusiast and forecast all the time. I was just pointing out that we would have advisories posted later that day. And behold we have Winter Weather Advisories for us. Now about that radar returns over SW NY does that look to be of any concern
ReplyDeleteDang, your good!
ReplyDeleteThere were advisories posted Saturday for today but certainly nothing to be concerned about. Minor icing tonight and Monday morning but no significant problems. Most of the forcing that produced the heavier precipitation was in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
Do you think that there are any chances that even us here in Wayne county could still get Blizzard Conditions on Sunday-Monday time frame
ReplyDeleteCharles, it's way to early to be certain. This storm is not even born yet. I do feel that this storm will move too quickly to hit us with a crippling snowfall. 3-6" would be my gut at this point but again that could change depending on the speed and strength of the storm.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
so the GFS run that shows us getting 35 inches is wrong
ReplyDeleteIs there anything that may push tomorrows snow up toward the lake? like maybe a boundary of some sort, overrunning or anything?
ReplyDeleteThe latest GFS model is showing much more in the way of snow it is showing approx. .5 inch moisture and .75 just to our south up from the run before that that had .25 for us and .5 for the extreme southern tear
ReplyDeleteConsidering we've never recorded 35" of snow in Rochester in one day...I'd say that's overdone. I'm sticking with my forecast for a significant snow on Sunday...possible a foot. Additional lake snows will likely follow on Monday which could add another 3-6". As for tomorrows snowfall, I expect as much as 5 or even 6" North. 10" likely in the Finger Lakes where snow will fall heavy at times in the late morning and early afternoon.
ReplyDeleteScott H.
I love it! Ski country is going to get hit hard on this one!!
ReplyDeleteWell Looking at data this morning...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_078m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_084m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_090m.gif
And then the Lake Effect Party Stats
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_096m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_102m.gif
This is the 24 hour total precipitation from this period
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_p24_102m.gif
it shows Rochester getting about 8-10 inches, Wayne County Eastward getting 10-14 inches and up and around the lake getting 14-18 inches these could be the correct totals but they also could not be don't think this is a forecast.
The NAM model kills the storm we get maybe a dusting.
A side note Surface winds according to the model are in the 20-30 knt range which is 25-35 mph --- Blizzard is 35 mph.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_078m.gif
So far so good. Real bad Dec. for snow as you said. To mid Jan looks fairly mild, hope it stays so.
ReplyDeleteSince you seem to have this nailed I think I'll get out of here for March.
Scott,
ReplyDeleteI am a returning Webster resident, lived in North Carolina for 6 years. Unlike you, I hate the snow! Your forecast for a big snowfall on Jan. 1-2 was all wet, which made me happy. I hope your prediction of low snowfall in Jan. and Feb. will be more on the money!