La Nina: Our best defense against a March snowstorm?

Let's face it, if you're a meteorologist or a weather buff in the northeastern US, you probably get excited when you hear the words "snowstorm." Sure, thoughts of having to shovel the driveway or dig out the car make some cringe, but there really is nothing quite like a nice fresh foot and a half of snow. I've never heard a single child complain about a day off!

Most remember the most notorious snowstorm in recent history, and it occurred right here in March, the infamous Blizzard of '93. It started on the evening of March 12 and continued through the 14, nearly crippling 1/3 of the country's population and bringing travel to a stand-still. So will this March hold the key to the next big storm? Well statistically speaking: no!

I did some digging into years past, with a FANTASTIC book titled "Northeast Snowstorms". I also searched a listing of all the years that showed good La Nina characteristics (like the one we are in right now.) Here's what I came up with:

Out of the 32 "worst" snowstorms from 1956 to 2003, NONE occurred during the month of March during a La Nina year. March '93 was actually a neutral year (neither La Nina or El Nino.) So why is it that La Nina doesn't necessarily form blockbuster snowstorms? It most likely has to do with jet stream position (as shown in the image above.) Jet stream is the dictator of where large storms can form. To get a big storm, you need a low pressure to form far enough south that it can tap the Gulf of Mexico for its moisture and then bring it up the coast. You also need a nice high pressure north that can pump in the cold air at the low levels as well. The average La Nina jet stream positions just don't allow these truly ideal conditions to co-exist, which may be why we have a lesser chance of seeing anything historic in the coming weeks. But don't worry, it's still winter, and remember, rules are meant to be broken!