ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON PREDICTED

Atlantic Tracks: 1980-2005

Written by: Scott Hetsko

Now that the grass is getting greener and temperatures are warming, it's time for the annual prediction that gets more press than Brittany Spears: How many hurricane are we going to see? Although they've been off the past two years,they are at it again at Colorado State University. Dr. Bill Gray increased his outlook of tropical storms to 15, and hurricanes to eight, compared with a long-term average of around 10 and six, respectively, for a storm season. "Current oceanic and atmospheric trends indicate that we will likely have an active Atlantic basin hurricane season," said Gray in a statement.

"Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," said Gray protege Phil Klotzbach, who now leads the CSU team. Major reasons for their forecast include a weakening La Nina which would result in lighter trade winds. Warmer than average water temperatures could spell stronger Category 4 and 5 storms. "We are calling for a very active hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons." 2005 produced a record 28 storms, including Hurricane Katrina, which swamped the city of New Orleans, killed around 1,500 people on the U.S. Gulf Coast and caused $80 billion in damages.

Of course this is just a projection and will most likely be modified as we approach Hurricane season which begins June first and ends November 3oth.