Gustav Nears Haiti

Written by: Brian Neudorff

Hurricane Hunter mission at 8 am EDT this morning measured a central pressure for Gustav at 981 mb and maximum sustained surface winds of 90 mph. The next Hurricane Hunter mission is expected about the time Gustav makes landfall in Haiti, at 2 pm EDT.

With sustained winds at 90 mph, Gustav is a very strong category 1 hurricane and could be a category 2 hurricane (winds 96-110 mph) when it makes landfall in Haiti later Tuesday afternoon. Gustav is a small compact storm and hurricane force winds extend 25 miles from its center with tropical storm force winds extending 70 miles from its center. As it was with Fay, the biggest impact to Haiti will be flooding rains that cause deadly flash floods. Flooding from Tropical Storm Fay killed over 20 Haitians last week, and we can expect serious flooding along Haiti's southern reaches from Gustav.

Once it makes landfall in Haiti, Gustav is expected to make a turn more to the west and move over very warm waters between Cuba and Jamaica. Here it should begin to strengthen into a major hurricane (category 3 or stronger). From days 1 to 3, computer models seem to agree on this path and intensification. Beyond three days there are lot of questions, but the models that were the most accurate with Fay take Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico. This means that over the Labor Day holiday weekend residence living along any point on the Gulf coast, from Texas to Florida, should watch the forecast very closely by the end of the week.