Gustav Update Wednesday

(image is the 11am 08/27/08 National Hurricane Center Forecast)

Written by: Brian Neudorff

Gustav made landfall on Haiti Tuesday afternoon as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. As it encountered the mountainous terrain of Haiti, it slowed and weakened to a tropical storm with winds near 60 mph. Torrential rains and tropical storm-force winds continued to pound Haiti through the overnight and into Wednesday. Rainfall estimates were around 4 to 8 inches that caused mud slides and flash flooding and is responsible for at least 5 deaths.

Gustav is preparing to move back over water and make a turn to the west. Forecasts have Gustav passing through the narrow channel between Cuba and Jamaica. Depending on how close it gets to the island of Cuba will decide on how strong Gustav can re-intensify. From now until Saturday is forecasted to pass south of Cuba and then make a turn to the northwest sometime this weekend and enter the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where it could strengthen into a major hurricane. (category 3 or stronger)

There are still a lot of question and a lot of factors that could influence the path and strength of Gustav in just the next 36 to 48 hours. Although no forecast 3 days out or farther are lock solid, locations along the gulf coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle should be prepared. As of Wednesday morning most models were localizing Gustav U.S. landfall from the Texas/Louisiana boarder over to Alabama with most focusing the attention to New Orleans. This doesn't mean it will hit there it just means that right now (5 days out) that is where the models see Gustav going but we have seen time and time again with tropical systems a lot can happen and these models can miss things that, in the end, will steer a Hurricane hundreds of miles from the original location.