Gustav Growing Stronger & Hanna is Born

(NHC 5-Day forecast cone for Gustav as of 7 AM EDT)

Written by: Brian Neudorff

Gustav is still a tropical storm as of Thursday morning but has shown signs of strengthening going from sustained winds of 50 mph at 5 a.m. to 70 mph at 7:30 a.m. and could be return to hurricane strength by later Thursday afternoon.

Gustav has surprised the NHC a little this morning, as a Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane inspected the storm they found that the center was farther south than what they expected. This is being explained in their 5am forecast discussion as either Gustav reforming farther south or has been moving south-southwest during the overnight hours. Gustav is becoming better organized, which can be seen on infrared satellite, but a lot has changed as far as forecasted path and intensity over the next 24 to 36 hours.

For the past three days the forecasted path for Gustav took it over the waters between Cuba and Jamaica, but now with this unforecasted shift to the south the NHC has shifted their path just south of Jamaica.

The forecast beyond the next 24 to 36 hours has not changed much and most models continue to take Gustav into the central Gulf of Mexico. Although most models along with the NHC forecast keep Gustav making landfall in Louisiana and near New Orleans, anyone living from Texas to the Florida Pan handle should still think about making some preparations if needed.

Tropical Storm Hanna (Update 11 a.m. EDT)

Gustav has a sister to play with in the Atlantic as Hanna has formed as the 8th named storm of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Hanna's sustained winds are only 40 mph and Hanna has challenges as it tries to strengthen as it has to deal with other atmospheric features like an upper level low that is in between Gustav and Hanna.

ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. SINCE THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PRIMARILY A FUNCTION OF HOW HANNA INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PLACING HANNA IN A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH AMPLE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN A FAVORABLE AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SPACING BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND HANNA TO PROMOTE STRENGTHENING.

At this time it is way too early to know what kind of problems this storm could cause on the eastern coast of the United States and when.