Hanna Strengthening, Ike Weakening

Written by: Brian Neudorff

As the morning wears on Hanna begins is looking more organized. To be honest I am very impressed by how Hanna is looking on the visible satellite. Definitely a far cry from the open and exposed storm we saw yesterday at this time when Hanna was taking in a lot of dry air. So what does all of this mean? It means it looks very likely that Hanna is a hurricane when it makes landfall in the Carolinas. I could see winds from 70mph (a strong tropical storm) to as high as 80 or even 90 mph (which would make it a moderate to strong category 1 hurricane) Obviously we have seen storms that appear week suddenly ramp up when they get into prime conditions and then exceed levels they were forecasted. Just look at Ike, when it became a category 4 hurricane Thursday morning, strengthening was forecasted, but not that rapidly...

Hanna Links: Hanna Tracking Site Satellite Images Radar: Jacksonville, FL - Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Newport/Morehead, NC AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center WunderGround.com Hanna

Ike, although weaker this morning as a category 3 hurricane, it is still a very dangerous threat. It is weaker cause it isn't in an area of favorable conditions and is experiencing wind shear to its north and northeast sides. It is forecasted to enter more favorable conditions 3 to 5 days from now. I wouldn't be surprised if Ike weakened some over the next 24 to 36 hours to a cateogry 2, but I wouldn't be surprised if it stays a 3. Over the last 24 hour, the computer models used to forecast Ike's path and strength have been trending towards landfall in South Floriday by Tuesday. They NHC also predict it to be a major hurricane of a category 4 when it makes its way through the Bahamas and toward Miami.

Keep in mind we are talking nearly 4 days away. A lot could happen, here are some of the scenarios:

1) Ike makes an early turn to the north and stays out over the Atlantic,
(Best case scenario)
2) it
follows Hanna's path through the Bahamas and towards the Carolinas or even the
Northeast (This is AccuWeather.com's forecast. I think this is somewhere in
the 40/60% category of happening and not)
3) South Florida hit or Florida Keys then as a major hurricane. (This is
the going forecast and looks very probable) and Scenario 3a) after hitting south
Florida it makes its way back into the Gulf and hits Alabama.