ALL OF A SUDDEN, WE'RE NUMBER ONE!
Written By: Scott Hetsko
Just a few days ago, I was talking about the lack of snow so far here in Rochester. My how things have changed! The recent fluffy lake effect has propelled us to number one compared to our Thruway pals to the East and West! 18.3" recorded this month is just about average to date. Not much more snow is in the forecast the next 5 days but we're watching with much interest a Colorado Low that might bring a Christmas present to Western New York.
Climatologically speaking the primary storm track in an El Nino Winter would place that storm to our West or right over us. You know what that means....EXACTLY! Hey at least we will have fun talking about it over the next few days.
Scott, that Christmas storm looks more and more interesting. The GFS now takes it just East of us. I hope the models do not take it off the coast and keep moving it East. WHat is your early thinking?
ReplyDeleteI saw that, too. The 06z and the 12z runs are consistent in that they take out that ugly "cutter" system to our west, and transfer energy quite early in the game, which means the coastal low dominates to our east. If i'm not mistaken, the 12z even tries to retrograde the storm toward us. But, as Scott, Brian and Bob, i'm sure, would advise us, it's far too early to get excited just yet. Plus, as Scott hinted at, climatology isn't on our side. Not only is it an el nino winter, but the trend has been for the western track. But just the fact that the models are showing us on the cold side for a couple runs is encouraging. One thing is for sure, we'll all be watching the model runs like a hawk for the next week! And by the way, Scott, what's up with the 18z run of the NAM? It has a VERY different solution for the mid atlantic storm this weekend. Brings it further inland and MUCH further north than earlier projected. Could be a surprise dose of snow for the Big Apple!
ReplyDeleteIt would be nice to have a Christmas Eve, day snow event. We all know the models will change many times before the event.
ReplyDeleteThe latest GFS model gives the midwest a blizzard like the last storm and gives us rain for majority of the storm and then a little snow at the end but incredible winds again ~ 50 mph
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