CHRISTMAS STORM UPDATE
Written by: Bob Metcalfe
The data from the 18z GFS model run is showing some consistency with the previous 12z run in that the main low from this storm is trending more and more to our west. The data pictured is for Friday afternoon noon (Christmas Day.) We look at the 540 line (the first dashed blue line) as a good spot for the location between rain and snow. From this data, we'd suspect at least a few hours of rain in the mix.
What I'm feeling more confident about is the onset time of this storm. I believe that this will be arriving late Christmas Eve at the earliest, as each model run keeps delaying arrival more and more. The next few days of data will decide. Remember, the models have a very hard time resolving storms that haven't formed yet, and in this case, it hasn't yet.
Here's another thing to think about. There's been a lot of replies to our posts with regards to the GFS model data. Remember, there are other models out there.
Here's the 12z ECMWF data for about the same time:
Notice how far south and west the low center is, just north of Oklahoma and Nebraska. Another factor to add into the equation. The Euro model has some very good data in situations like this, so we'll also be considering input from this model as well.
Of course stay tuned to the blog. I'll have another write-up coming tomorrow afternoon.
No thanks as far as staying tuned. Not going to follow a storm that will put ROC on the warm side, YET AGAIN. This is getting old very, very fast.
ReplyDeleteWell... tell us what that means on the ECMWF, Bob.
ReplyDeleteI looked at a discussion out of Erie, Pa and they are going with a more Souther Track and disgarding The Euro and GFS models. See below:
ReplyDeleteCOLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES LEADS ME TO LEAN TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE WARM AIR ADVECTION DEPICTED BY THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS OUT OF THE AREA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR CHRISTMAS EVE SNOWSTORM THAT COULD HIT THE AREA IF ALL OF THE ELEMENTS AND TRACKS COME TOGETHER. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...WILL STICK WITH ALL SNOW FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SEE HOW THE MODELS CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOPEFULLY...WE WILL START TO SEE SOME CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN.
What is HPC guidance???????
Good question. I noticed that too out of the Cleveland NWS. I've never seen the HCP referenced before. But if Cleveland is ahead of the curve on this one, then we could be pleasantly surprised around Christmas. But it sure seems that Scott and others at Fox / Channel 8 are very set on the idea that this storm is going to track west and give us significant warm advection. We'll see. I'm still waiting for Bob to explain the Euro like he did the GFS.
ReplyDeleteWinter in Rochester. Boring!!!! The storm for this week is definatley moving way to our West leaving us on the warm side. AS ALWAYS!! The big Blizzard moves to our South and East- SHOCKER and this one moves to our West. Un believeable. This is getting very old. Bring on spring!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteGoodbye white Christmas. The wimpy 2 inches of snow on the ground right now will be gone by Christmas with temps heading into the 30's by Thursday and Friday.
ReplyDeleteC'mon weekend crew, update your blog!
ReplyDeleteRain, Rain, Rain. Here it comes. Maybe by May we will get a snowstorm around here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI picture a Wall around Western, NY. The storms either go to our West or too far South and East. They cannot penetrate the Wall. Same old story, year after year. I do not care what anyone says, the climate around Rochester has changed. When I was a kid we used to get snowstorms all the time and snow was on the ground all winter long. The piles of snow used to be so high at the end of our driveway we were able to build snow tunnels and forts. That has not happend for years and years. Winters around here are not the same....