MAJOR MID ATLANTIC SNOWSTORM
Written By: Scott Hetsko
Well here we go again! Rochester will again miss out on a snowstorm as the big cities prepare for a significant amount of snow beginning late tonight and ending Sunday morning. The storm track is perfect for all snow for Philadelphia, Washington DC and New York City. Each city has the potential to get a foot or more of snow along with strong winds especially in New York. Blizzard conditions are possible for a time Saturday night in these areas.
Meanwhile here in Western New York, just lazy clouds that may produce a few light flurries with a NE wind off of Lake Ontario on Sunday. It will be a touch colder than average with highs reaching the mid to upper 20s.
What else is new Scott. It is the same old story over and over again. We are always spectators to big snowstorms. All we ever get is nickel and dimes by fake lake effect swow. How come this storm is not taking the WEST track like every other storm. This one is South and East. The one for Christmas Eve looks to go well to our West once again and give us Rain and NO white Christmas. I do not understand why we here in New York consistently miss these big storms.
ReplyDeleteSeriously, you could be the most accurate forecaster in Rochester if you just predict every synoptic storm potential in the long range to either miss us to the south and east, or track west and give us rain. You got two options in Rochester these days. Just imagine how little snow we would get in WNY if not for the lake effect. Anyway, I digress. Scott, do you see ANY chance that the trends in the models will change for the Christmas event?
ReplyDeleteHere is a piece of the NWS forecast discussion:
ReplyDeleteFOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE TYPICALLY MORE RELIABLE ECMWF AT THIS
TIME RANGE...WHICH BRINGS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS OVER TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE OCCLUDING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT ACROSS
NY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM SNOW TO RAIN DURING THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOLING WITH TIME AFTER THE LOW MOVES TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST...SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF A LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL FLOW SETUP /WITH THE LOW
CENTER OVERHEAD OR TO THE SOUTH/ DOES NOT FAVOR A GOOD EVENT OVER
LAKE ERIE...BUT WITH AN EVENTUAL RESPONSE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THATS GETTING WAY...WAY AHEAD OF OURSELVES THOUGH...-- End Changed Discussion --
Scott,
Can you tell me what they are talking about with the Lake Effect event? Are they hinting that the event will be on a North wind?
You can thank a strong and stationary high pressure centered over Eastern Ontario tonight. Low pressure MUST track toward greatest pressure falls which tonight are occurring along the Virginia Coast. As for the Christmas storm, I don't care what models say...storms that track along the Western Appalachians always mean a mix to rain for us. By the time that parent low transfers to the coast, we'll likely only get some lake snows following Christmas.
ReplyDeleteOne of these days maybe we will get a good old fashioned snowstorm around here instead of these few inch fluffy lake effect minor snow events. Meanwhile we can be spectators!!!!!!!!!!!!! As always....
ReplyDeleteThe new GFS is now delaying the storm until Friday and developing a stronger low of the coast and moving the parent low to our South and East, It has totally reversed itself on the Western Track. The track is now Southern , Pa according to the GFS. The Eiro is similar.
ReplyDeleteSorry, the Euro is similar
ReplyDeleteThe 18Z GFS moves the low through Eastern, NY. It has totally reversed itself which I am sure it will do again.
ReplyDeleteModels will shift around like crazy until a few days before the event. All we can do is hope. I am so tired of us watching everyone else get big synoptic snows while we either sit high and dry or soak. I'm an intense snow lover and although I appreciate the LES event here and there, which nickle and dime us to 100 inches each year, I year for a big thumping of snow. It's so to hard to live in Rochester if you're a fan of big snowstorms.
ReplyDeleteYeah PLEASE don't take each run as something new. Models are no good at resolving on a storm until 3-5 days out especially one that really isn't even born yet and is a wave in the ocean. By Monday you'll begin to see a consensus of a Western Track. The only that may help a more coastal solution would be that blocking high hinted at across Southern Ontario...I think that is what the GFS is grappling over right now.
ReplyDeleteEveryone pray for a coastal route....repeat after me in mantra fashion...."COASTAL STORM...COASTAL STORM.....COASTAL STORM"
ReplyDeletePerhaps, but the GFS 0z run still has the track to our south and east, and in fact, it takes it even further south than the 18z. Not only that, but the GEFS ensembles have shifted to a colder solution as well. You seem very confident of a western track, but i'm not so sure about that just yet, especially considering the recent trend back to cold.
ReplyDeleteI agree. You guys need to read some of the forecast discussions from Binghamton and Cleveland. The mostly snow option is still very much on the table.
ReplyDeletePlease don't tell me I need to read what my peers say, ok? I'm a forecaster like them and I feel as good as anyone. You all need to not only look at SURFACE pressure but upper level pressure too. It's MUCH more important where the 850mb low is...and we NEVER get all snow with an 850 low over us. It's physically impossible and that's my forecast discussion for now.
ReplyDelete