COLD PATTERN SETTING UP?
Written by: Bob Metcalfe
Stemming of of the earlier post from Brian today, there is improving evidence for a decent east coast storm into the weekend. Again, we'll probably miss out on bulk snow amounts. What I'm looking at is the aftermath of this guy.
This low spins up pretty well. It's a moderately well developed storm. But the pattern in the lower arctic/northern Atlantic may lock the east coast into a fairly long-lasting cold pattern. After all, the coldest air usually sneaks in behind a strong storm.
The data I looked at today indicates that a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern is in place, which will lock this storm and the cold air across the northeast well into next week. With that being said, these types of setups typically do NOT allow for major snowfall, rather the "nickel and dime" type of precipitation we've come to "love" this winter so far.
Question for you guys. So this system will pass to our east, but what will this mean for LES potential in the ROC metro? I heard a few days back that the snow could start to pile up around here from the prolonged NW / WNW wind that will setup. But since then I havent heard anybody mention anything about LES other than just some "showers." It seems to me that conditions seem paricularly favorable for prolonged LES production from friday through early next week on a NW wind. At least more favorable than anything we've had thus far this winter. Your thoughts?
ReplyDeleteThat was my question as well. Only chanel 13 has mentioned significant lake effect snow for Rochester this weekend. On a NW flow and cold air coming across the lake I would think that we would have a prolonged period of lake effect for Rochester Metro and points East.
ReplyDeleteLet's look at yesterday (Tuesday), we had significant cold air with a NW flow and based on your comment we should have seen "significant lake effect snow" and yet we didn't.
ReplyDeleteWhen dealing with very cold air you're typically dealing with a very dry airmass as well. That will work against you with lake effect.
As I mentioned in the comment section of a previous post this week, it takes a lot more than just cold air over warmer lakes. A NW flow also tends to work against us for significant lake effect since the air travels over a smaller section of the lake limiting the amount of moisture it can pick up. We also get multiple bands of lake effect. If the winds become strong which they look like they will then that will also limit the amount of moisture picked up by the flow and then limited the amount of snow we can get.
Looking ahead to this weekend. I agree with Bob that a cold pattern is setting up and depending on what happens with the coastal storm Friday and if it backs to the west over New England Saturday and where the associated upper low tracks then there might enough support for lake effect this weekend from Rochester and points east.
It's not my place to comment on a competitors forecast especially if I haven't seen it. As for my view, I mentioned in my post yesterday morning that we would see lake effect maybe some lake enhancement Friday into Saturday but I am not going to claim 3 to 4 days out we're going to get a major lake effect snow event when there are still a lot more questions than answers with the forecast this weekend.
What's up with you guys here at channel 8? It seems your forecasts lately haven't been as accurate as lets say channel 13. Also, this blog is a joke. I have noticed that your blogs are outdated and it takes forever for a comment or question to be replied to. I know you are not sitting in front of the computer 24/7, but I and other posters have had questions posted weeks ago, that never received and answer or comment.
ReplyDeleteI apologize if I sound irritated, but I have always relied on channel 8 for the best weather, but it just seems lately you guys are slipping.
Brian,
ReplyDeleteI understand the whole short fetch thing, and that there are multiple other factors that go into favorable LES other than simply cold air. But with the cyclonic flow, and the low close enough to us, shouldn't we have good crystal growth and moisture as well? You refer to the latest LES event, but we were also under very dry air and relatively high pressure. The duration of the event was also MUCH shorter than what might happen later this week into next week. I guess we're all just wondering if conditions this time around are looking to be particularly favorable for sustained LES developement on a NW wind.
Also, a good indicator of how "favorable" conditions will be for LES developement is what is projected to happen across the western lakes. Lake Michigan has struggled to have many good LES events this year. several of the last LES episodes were mostly confined to the upper end of Lake Michigan toward Traverse City, with the lower end of that lake being under the influence of an approaching high or warm advection. But if you look at the NAM for this time around, all of the great lakes, including the lower end of lake michigan, show a constant and prolonged stream of moisture coming off of them. Long story short, there looks to be widespread favorable conditions, even well to our west. And if conditions look favorable well to our west, considering the eastern lakes are even closer to the moisture source, then how would things not be particularly favorable here?
ReplyDeleteJust so you all know here is my blog post from Wednesday Morning (posted little afternoon) WEEKEND COLD & LAKE EFFECT SNOW on the cold and yes how we will get lake effect this weekend. For the record, to the individual I responded to, I want you to know that I don't disagree with the idea that there will be lake effect this weekend, I don't know what channel 13 said but it is too early to put any quantitative amounts on lake effect this weekend or beyond. Feel free to read my post and comment. Thank you
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