NEW YEARS SNOW, MORE COLD

Written by: Brian Neudorff

Now that we are getting a little closer to New Years Eve and New Years day we can start to take a serious look at the storm along the east coast and what it could mean for our weather.

The above graphic is from the GFS for Friday afternoon, New Years Day. A storm center off the New England coast around Long Island and Connecticut. The GFS prints the heaviest of precipitation from Eastern Pennsylvania around Philadelphia then through New York City, into Connecticut and Massachusetts. This probably won't have the same kind of snow as the storm the weekend before Christmas did. In fact, look at the blue dotted line that runs along the coast through New York City. This tells me that many locations closest to the coast will see a possible rain, snow mix with the snow falling inland and the higher elevations of the Appalachians.

Closer to home in Western New York, this storm will probably only produce a few light snow showers or flurries. I can already see the comments about the "Snow Hole" around Rochester and the lack of storms.


Unlike the storm from 2 weeks ago that passed the New England coast then moved northeast out to sea, the models (Both the GFS & EURO) are indicating that this surface low will will begin to back a little more west into New England. This could produce some decent snow for our region along with some lake effect or even lake enhanced snows across our area. This will also allow for more very cold arctic air to arrive for the weekend. Highs on Saturday may once again have trouble getting into the 20s.

For snow lovers your still going to get snow, probably not the big dumping that many of you are waiting for. If you want a forecast that brings some snow around here New Years Day, I posted the article from AccuWeather.com on what they are thinking for New Years Day below.

(This is AccuWeather's forecast not ours)

A blizzard could potentially ring in the new year from upstate New York to northern New England and Quebec, resulting in a period of treacherous or nearly impossible holiday travel.

A storm moving up along the Southeast coast of the United States later Thursday will rapidly strengthen south of New England on Friday. The storm will then slowly crawl northeastward toward the Canadian Maritimes during the weekend.

Well north and west of the storm track, there will be a large band of accumulating snow from the southern Appalachians to western New York later Thursday and into Friday. It appears that the worst of this storm will be over northern New England and upstate New York, with heavy snowfall, strong winds and whiteout conditions.

The major cities from Washington, D.C., to Boston, Mass., will be flirting with the rain/snow line, as milder air gets pulled in from the Atlantic Ocean. This could keep accumulations lower than areas farther north.

Also, keep in mind that the storm is still days away, and a slight change in the track would shift the axis of heaviest snow.