HOW MUCH SNOW WILL WE SEE?
Written by: Bob Metcalfe
My thoughts on the snow accumulation through Tuesday morning are pictured above. This is a STORM TOTAL. I think 80 percent of the area will wake up to 4-6" of fresh snow for the morning commute, with an additional 2-4" falling throughout the first half of Tuesday.
But to me, the big story is in two parts: blowing snow causing whiteout conditions late tonight and early Tuesday, as well as brutal cold windchill values.
Winds will gust above 30 most of tonight and early Tuesday, making sure that blowing snow is available for all. Travel cautiously and slowly for the next 24 hours, I know I will be.
Temperatures are plummeting into the teens by Tuesday. Combine that with strong, gusty winds, and we're easily looking at -5 to -10 degree windchills by early Tuesday morning.
Don't forget about the pets. It's simple, but often overlooked.
Thoughts on the first 2010 storm forthcoming... be safe out there. Hope this at least "wets" the voracious winter appetite on this blog!
Bob, why on a NW flow are areas East of Rochester going to get more snow. A NW flow is perfect for us to get hit hard yet you only have 6-8 inches. Also, it looks like we can forget about the storm this weekend as well as the NE wind giving us a good lake effect event. So far we had a blizzard miss us to the West, South and now the East. Got to love it. The Rochester snow bubble continues. Lake effect is boring in Rochester.
ReplyDeleteNWS has forecasted 4-8 inches for areas in western Wayne county with another 3-5 tomorrow why do they have so much more then you have
ReplyDeleteA northwest flow is NOT ideal for us to get hit hard. Fetch is one of the key ingredients for lake effect snow. Second only to a directly north wind is the fetch we gain off of a northwest flow.
ReplyDeleteFetch can be described as the distance surface level air has to travel over the water. This allows the air to absorb moisture from the lake. More time over the lake means more moisture means more snow. If you look at Rochester and draw lines in a 360 degree circle from us across the lake, the longest fetch you'll see is from the NE.
Also remember this... the faster that air is moving, the less time it has to absorb moisture as well. With winds as strong as they are tonight and tomorrow, that's why I'm leaning towards a more lean snowfall total.
As of this writing (6:25pm), I'm not at all impressed with the snow coming from the frontal passage. I was expecting a good 2" out of this for most. That being said, I may even trim total numbers down further for the later broadcasts. Once our winds turn tonight and the lakes wake up, we'll get a better idea of totals.
In regards to Wayne county... again, its forecaster difference. We all look at different (but the same) things. Call it experience, call it gut instinct. The numbers you see are the culmination of the thoughts of all the meteorologists at this station.
Right now, I'm leaning for the lower totals. I'll post a comment later tonight.
If Rochester doesn't get out from between the LES bands, we get through the entire night with only a dusting.
ReplyDeleteWhat happended to all the lake effect snow we were supposed to see. We barely received 2 inches in Wayne county. Yet another disappointment in Rochester. All models now point to a total miss for the weekend storm. Well east of us. The misses keep on coming.
ReplyDeleteAs you can see lake effect is more than just cold air over warmer lakes. When your dealing with such cold air you also dealing with very dry air. There just wasn't enough moisture in the air and coming from the lakes to get the lake effect going.
ReplyDeleteSo with a lack of moisture and lack of upper level support the multiple bands just couldn't get organized.
After reading Bob's post from last night and looking at things before I went to bed I could see the downward trend in snow amounts. Unfortunately lake effect can be a wait and see type of beast as Bob said in his comment above, "I may even trim total number down for the later broadcasts. Once our winds turn tonight and the lake wakes up, we'll get a better idea of totals."
Keep in mind when it comes to forecasting snow, and especially lake effect you are forecasting the most likely scenario that you see. You do your best to prepare people for what could be and what might happen hoping that all that you looked at holds true and is correct.
Yup. I think the speed of the winds had a lot to do with the minimal snowfall amounts. The bands started out pretty promising shortly after the front passed when the winds were the weakest, and thinned out pretty quickly when they picked up overnight. This limited the moisture absorption of the low level airmass.
ReplyDeleteAny reports from our readers as to what you had this morning?