MOTHER NATURE TO CHRISTMAS: BAH HUMBUG!
Written By: Scott Hetsko
We've got virtually no chance of seeing snow falling on Christmas Day. The top image is a forecast for 1 p.m. Christmas Day. Notice the "BLUE" dotted line which is the critical thickness value. If this line is near or West of Rochester, the probability of snow falling is very low. There will likely be some icing at the onset of this storm which may cause slick roads Christmas Day morning.
Now that we're just days away from our next storm, all indications continue to point toward a West tracking storm. Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin will probably enjoy a nice snowstorm but for us it will be rain with some freezing rain at the onset which will have to be watched closely. It will remain on the cold side the next two days so there will be some snow on the ground on Christmas Day but we'll be losing it by the minute. Temperatures behind the system will get cold enough for some lake snows over the weekend. Too late for Santa but we all know he's got magical ways to make it all around the world!
Scott,
ReplyDeleteSystem is getting into better sampling range now. Do you think there's ANY chance of the WAA being overdone by the models? If that high in SE Canada is stronger or further West, wouldn't cold air hang around longer? Also, because of the deep snowpack South of us, isnt't there a chance of secondary low development SE of us to help lock in colder air? I'm grasping for straws, but still holding out hope. Even if we don't get much snow, I'd much rather see ice than rain on Xmas (though not TOO much ice!!!)
Come on! We've got to break out of this synoptic rut we're in....too far West, too far East, I'm so sick of it!!!!!
You kind of answered your own question there. If that high builds in and forces colder air, it'll likely give us more of a mix towards sleet/ice. It won't be strong enough to cool the whole column of air from the surface up.
ReplyDeleteHow much rain would be looking at? Any flooding concerns?
ReplyDeleteRochester winters stink!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteHows that new years storm going? Wait, let me guess, thats missing us too?
ReplyDeleteThe NWS is cautioning about a possible Ice Storm for areas east of Lake Ontario. How much ice to you believe we will get here in the Rochester area?
ReplyDeleteAlso, if it does turn over to all rain, do you expect a lot. Should we be concern about flooding?
Thank you.
For me, the rain will be welcome because it will wash away some of that ****** SALT!
ReplyDelete