NEW YEAR, NEW WEATHER PATTERN
Written By: Scott Hetsko
A strong cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon and bring in much colder air over the weekend. At the same time, a coastal low will stall and may move back toward the Southern Coast of Maine Sunday morning. I'm confident in saying that significant lake effect snow will fall over the weekend for most areas North of the thruway and here's why...
A stalled low feeding moist, cold air over Lake Ontario could mean significant snows in Rochester on Sunday. There will be lake snow warning posted over the weekend so please check back on Friday as we will begin to put some numbers on the upcoming snow. My gut feeling is that at least 6-12" is good bet throughout the weekend with some areas getting over 12" by Monday morning.
Some of Rochester's biggest snows come from "Lake Enchancement" rather than pure "Lake Effect". This is the case setting up on Sunday. Bitter cold air and strong winds will combine to make the upcoming weekend the coldest and most wintry so far this season! HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!!
Hey Scott, welcome back,
ReplyDeleteI am confused on what another channel is saying. They are saying the lake snow will be confined to areas North and East of Rochester on the 104 corridor. That does not make sense to me. What U are saying makes sense.
Doesn't make sense to me neither. This will not be the traditional WNW kind of thing that keeps most snow north and east. We'll have wrap around moisture, and a sharp north wind. Sounds like the other channel is just resorting to the "classic" setup for LES without looking at the specific details for this event.
ReplyDeleteTo the first commenter...Channel 10 is verifying exactly what Scott said. They have 6-12 with up to a foot in places North of the Thruway. Exactly what Scott said.
ReplyDeleteIf U look at Channel 10 website the printed forecast states especially North and East of Rochester. They have 12+ showing over Eastern Wayne county and 6-12 over MOnroe. WHo gets the 6 and who gets the 12? Could they all me underestimating this storm. This NW flow will continue through next week with no high pressure coming in to kill the lake effect. We could see snow every day through next week.
ReplyDeleteThe NWS out of Erie has already put up watches for the counties bordering Lake Erie. Why has not Buffalo followed this and put watches up for us? Is the event too far away?
ReplyDeleteI'm not really able to comment on what other channels are saying but this low stalling and actually moving back to the West could mean quite a bit of snow over the weekend, especially Sunday. 25 to 1 snow to liquid ratios mean snow will be high and fluffy. The poster is right in saying that this is NOT the typical WNW flow, rather lake enhancement snow. Rochester usually does pretty good in this type of setup. Even though the fetch is short, it's MOIST and persistent. Someone's getting over a foot. As for why NWS Buffalo hasn't placed any watches...I would imagine they'll post them beginning tomorrow morning. We'll see how it develops.
ReplyDeleteLOTS OF SNOW :)
ReplyDeleteNWS mentioned why they have not issued watches yet in there forecast discussion:
"SUNDAY MAY SEE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND
LAKE ENHANCEMENT DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD AS GFS AND SOME DEGREE
THE ECMWF WRAP MOISTURE AROUND THE HUGE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL LOW
NORTHWEST WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. WILL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY AT
LEAST EVERYWHERE WITH CATEG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ALL
COULD SEE A FEW INCHES SUNDAY WITH HEAVIER AMTS POSSIBLE S AND SE
OF THE LAKES. HELD OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR NOW AS IT IS 5-6TH PERIOD
BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR."
Also the hourly weather graph that they have displayed for Ontario, NY shows 9 inches before Sunday even begins if we get 9 inches from now till Saturday night and then we get over a foot on Sunday this will be one snowy weekend
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=buf&FcstType=graphical&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=189&map.y=131&site=BUF
The NWS in Buffalo tends to hold off just a little later than the surrounding areas when issuing watches and advisories. I think they like to be a little extra sure before they jump the gun. Doesn't mean they won't issue headlines. They definately will.
ReplyDeleteScott nailed it with the "MOIST" part. The moisture is something that has been absent in a lot of our lake effect setups on a WNW or NW wind. This time it's different. Lots of moisture and a low pressure nearby.
ReplyDeleteAs for channel 10's forecast - It's not that different from Scott's. As for who gets 6 and who gets 12 - it's important not to get hung up on the details of that just yet. It's lake effect, remember. Pin pointing exact amounts is impossible.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeletePer the NAM, the heaviest of the snow looks to be right in the middle of the day on Sunday. If this is correct, will there be any diurnal effects on the snow bands off Ontario? It seems the LES tends to flare up just after sunset, and fizzle out somewhat during the daylight. And I know closer to spring, the sun overhead can make LES more cellular in nature. Will this the case to any extent this time?
Discussion from the NWS:
ReplyDeleteThey are saying that there will be shear and lower inversions for heavy lake effect.
COLDER AIR WILL DEEPEN FRI NT AND SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING. THE 310-320 FLOW WILL FAVOR
MULTIPLE BANDS FROM MONROE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES...BUT DECENT SHEAR AND
LOWERING INVERSIONS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS BELOW WARNING THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH ADVISORIES ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.
We shall see but I'm more interested in Lake Enhancement coming Sunday into Monday rather than pure lake effect. If that Low retrogrades like it appears it will, then our weather will get snowy for awhile I expect.
ReplyDeleteHey Scott, the 0z GFS seems to make that low off the east coast a good deal stronger than previous runs. It also puts it slightly east. Any consequence here?
ReplyDeleteThe talk out of the Buffalo and Syracuse NWS is not immpressive for a big lake snow event. They are saying the airmass will be too dry for a big event. I would not be surprised if we do not se much snow at all out of this. They are saying only advisory levels with 2-4 inches. BIG DEAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteAT THE MOMENT WILL GO WITH ARND 2 TO 3 OR 4 INCHESAS BUFKIT PROFILES AT BOTH ROC AND SYR SHOW MOISTURE IN LOWER LVLS IS NOT EXCESSIVELY HIGH AND THERE IS A LACK OF ANY IMPRESSIVE LIFTIN THE LOWER LVLS AS WELL.
Don't get too frustrated yet. That portion of the discussion that you just pasted on here is for Saturday's snow "episode", specifically. Read the paragraph just below it about what happens come Sunday. Things get more favorable for bigger snow. Notice the hint about issuing a WATCH. That's pretty significant. Here's the portion of the discussion below:
ReplyDelete"SUNDAY MAY SEE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND
LAKE ENHANCEMENT DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD AS GFS AND SOME DEGREE
THE ECMWF WRAP MOISTURE AROUND THE HUGE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL LOW
NORTHWEST WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORCIAL TO
HIGH LKLY POPS. ALL AREAS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES SUNDAY WITH HEAVIER
AMTS POSSIBLE S AND SE OF THE LAKES. HELD OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR NOW
AS IT IS 5TH PERIOD BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR."
Yeah, I read that too. I was also reading the NWS out of Binghamton for Syracuse. They are saying a low inversion will limit snowfall rates.
ReplyDeleteSATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE WILL CONTINUE.
THIS EVENT HAS DURATION ON ITS SIDE BUT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MEAN A SINGLE BAND WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO STAY STILL. A LOW INVERSION WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL RATES. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MEAN INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30S MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE CATSKILLS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MARGINAL.
Another thing we must keep an eye out for is the potential for power outages due to winds. Also we need to watch for snow drifting... 40 mph winds with 6-12 inches of snow will surly make some large snow drifts.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking through new data this afternoon and I'll update the weekend forecast here on the blog by 4 p.m. There's alot to study...I still think alot depends on that coastal low and associated lake enchancement (moisture). If that low doesn't stall, then we'll see lower amounts of snow over the weekend.
ReplyDeleteI am going to bet on the lower amounts myself. Things usually do not work out for us to get a good lake effect/enhancement storm. At least not this year. I am worried about the wind and that it may be too strong for lake effect to form like that last event that did not happen. The talk out of the NWS is not impressive. Normally they would talk up a big lake effect event.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteAre you seeing things in the data that suggest the low may not stall, now?
I hope it stalls. Both the GFS and NAM still show that low making an abrupt stop to its forward progress and looping back -retrograding west for a time. That's promising...right?
ReplyDeleteAgain guys, the NWS is not necessarilly playing this down. The lower end stuff that they aren't getting worked up about is for tonight thru saturday night. It's Sunday when things could be more significant. Don't just cherry pick the stuff that makes this sound like a non-event. Here is what the NWS is STILL saying about Sunday. A LES WATCH is still in their vocab:
ReplyDeleteOFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...THINGS WILL PLAY OUT A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN
OFF LAKE ERIE...AS OFTEN IS THE CASE. RADAR SHOWS SOME ACTIVITY
OFF OF ONTARIO ALREADY. EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT NORTH AS THE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT BACK EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE AS THE FLOW BECOMES AROUND 290 BEHIND THE
FRONT. NO HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT DO EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
SUNDAY MAY SEE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND
LAKE ENHANCEMENT DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD AS GFS AND SOME DEGREE
THE ECMWF WRAP MOISTURE AROUND THE HUGE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL LOW
NORTHWEST WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL TO
HIGH LKLY POPS. ALL AREAS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES SUNDAY WITH HEAVIER
AMTS POSSIBLE S AND SE OF THE LAKES. HELD OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR NOW
AS IT IS 5TH PERIOD BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
When will this all start? Friday night? Sat?
ReplyDeleteSo let me get this straight, the NWS felt it was necessary to issue an advisory a week ago for extremely marginal conditions that resulted in a dusting....yet this setup doesn't warrent even an advisory for Monroe County? What's up with that, Scott?
ReplyDeleteI realize that the NWS indicated in their discussion that they may need to expand headlines to Monroe county and points west, but I don't understand why they don't just issue it with the rest of the counties. They already acknowledge they we may only see "slightly" lesser amounts than say, wayne county. I tihnk they're making an error here.
ReplyDeleteThis looks good for a good dose of lake enhanced snow on sun. But as for today I think the NWS is right about the shift in wind direction leaving counties west of monroe with a little less accumulation. East of here will get larger amounts. like allways were in the middle. and i will be supprised if this turns in to more than 4-8 inches overall. I hope i am wrong. I love tons of that white stuff. bring it on old man winter.
ReplyDelete