LATEST THOUGHTS ON LAKE SNOWS
Written By: Scott Hetsko
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard...is what makes it great" Jimmy Dugan quote from "A League Of Their Own"
That is my favorite movie line of all time and I write it because it's how I feel about forecasting lake effect here in Western New York. What is so great about forecasting lake effect snow is that you must weigh so many things to come up with a reasonable forecast and sometimes even with all that thought and effort, it still surprises you! I'm going to list the biggest pros and cons in developing lake effect over the weekend.
PROS: CONS:
1) Plenty Of Cold Air 1) Limited Time Over Water
2) High Snow/Water Ratio 2) Strong Winds
3) WNW Winds 3) Low Inversion Heights
Considering all of the above factors I still expect accumulating snowfall for most areas near the lake over the next 60-72 hours. My gut is that Sunday night into Monday could become interesting with the proximity of that coastal low. I wouldn't be surprised if several fluffy inches fall in the metro Sunday overnight and early Monday morning. That's Rochester's best shot at getting sizable snowfall from this weekend. Places like Hamlin, Charlotte, Ontario could get 12" if everything works out right...time will tell!
I figured as much. Oh well. The nickle and dime stuff continues.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteWhat happened between yesterday and today in the data that made everybody less impressed by the totals?
It is because we live in Rochester and we never receive good snows.Big lake effect events only happen East of both lakes for obvious reasons. Anytime we have a good opportunity for god snow there are always other factors that will squash it: HIgh winds, low inversions, short fetch. Same old story over and over again.
ReplyDeleteNothing major happened, I just adjusted down a bit. I still expect a decent amount of snow over a long period of time. It will be a bitter cold weekend with an eye on Sunday into Monday for Rochester....stay tuned!
ReplyDeleteI'm really not as frustrated by the lack of advisory here, because I am in fundamental disagreement with the NWS on this one. They are wrong. I don't know if it's the weekend crew, or if they have the more seasoned mets off for the holiday, but they are in error with this one. To put Ithaca under the LES advisory but not Rochester is silly. Expect them to go back and expand the advisory (like they should have from the beginning) by the end of tonight. Sometimes the NWS's calls just perplex me.
ReplyDeleteI take the Ithaca part back. That county isn't in the advisory, but the trajactory is the same, as indicated by the string of counties that they chose to put in the advisory. Seneca county but not Monroe? Silly. We'll see by midnight tonight.
ReplyDeleteI know. I agree about the comment on the NWS. They are very reactive instead of pro-active. When it starts snowing is usually when they put of advisories or warnings. When they see it is coming down harder than they predicted.
ReplyDeleteSorry guys: I am just not impressed by 4-8 or 8 inches. That is nothing.
I agree with you guys 100 percent! I would include Orleans and Monroe in those advisories especially for the sencond half of the weekend. Who cares about those advisories, we know we'll get some decent snow over the weekend.
ReplyDeleteI think syracuse will be the winner on this one with a WNW wind. They are forecasting 3-7 tonight with another 3-7 tomorrow. Obviously, much more after that. I think by the time this is over Syracuse will be ahead of us all in snow for the year.
ReplyDeleteWatch Sunday into Monday for Rochester...I've got a feeling that most of our snow will occur then.
ReplyDeleteRadar is pretty active already.
ReplyDeletesnowing pretty hard here in Ontario already a dusting to 1/4 inch
ReplyDeleteI think that they will wind up upgrading Wayne, Cayuga, and Oswego counties to a warning.
ReplyDeleteWhat happened with the December snowfall contest? There was no winner announced!
ReplyDeleteThe way its snowing in Greece for the last few hours. We will have 8inches by morning, easily!
ReplyDeleteFor those wondering...25" was the winning snow prediction for the month of December. Well announce a winner on Monday night.
ReplyDeleteIt has been snowing good here in Sodus (near 104) for quite awhile. The forecast looks on target for N.Wayne County so far.
ReplyDeleteStill snowing here in Greece. atleast 4 inches on the ground.
ReplyDelete3-4 inches in Ontario, NY with heavy snow right now
ReplyDeleteAbout 2 inches here in Gananda overnight. No big deal. The NWS issues Winter Weather advisories for all of us. NBD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
ReplyDeleteI thought the wind was supposed to go more NWly? The NWS has us under a straight west wind most of the time.
ReplyDeletePartly cloudy here in Gananda with a few scattered flurries. Where is all the lake effect snow?????? A non-event. It lloks like the NWS was right on with this one. I think the snow lovers are going to be very disappointed come Monday morning.
ReplyDelete6 inches so far in Ontario, NY... NWS forecasting 6-10 tomorrow I would be looking for an upgrade to a warning at least for the Lake shore counties...Also current wind chill in Rochester is -10 is this wind supposed to continue tonight if so will see wind chill advisories too.
ReplyDeleteWoo Hoo LES Warning! Bring it on!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI will believe it when I see it. Right now it is barely snowing. Looks like another East Coast storm at the end of the week will miss us. There is a shocker.
ReplyDelete