LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THRU SUNDAY
Written by: Bob Metcalfe
Breaking the forecast down into two parts: snowfall through early Sunday morning, and snowfall during the day Sunday.
The first image shows the amount of snow falling now through about 7am Sunday. Good northwest wind and decent moisture will HEAVILY favor areas bord
ering Lake Ontario. A lake effect snow warning is in effect through Sunday at 6PM for Orleans, Monroe, and Wayne counties.
Now keep in mind one thing... the bitter cold temperatures of the low teens and single digits only allow for extremely low density, light, fluffy snow to fall. This makes total numbers markedly higher as well. It's also easier to shovel. On the flip side however, light snow is much more easily carried by the wind, which just so happens to be moving 10-20 mph tonight with gusts near 30 likely through Sunday afternoon. Therefore, blowing and drifting snow are also of concern at this time.
Sunday will offer even more snow, so the numbers from this image can be added to the totals from the previous image. The higher ends of the numbers will be closer to the lake, quickly dropping off as you head south. There is an interesting upper-level synoptic feature that will enhance the intensity of the lake snow as well as spread area-wide light to moderate snow during the morning and early afternoon hours. Therefore, numbers will be higher further south. Frigid windchills expected all day, with numbers dipping well below zero most of the early morning and afternoon.
Beyond this weekend, the pattern looks frozen. Both figuratively and literally. It isn't budging, and its a cold pattern. While not as cold as where we're at right now, we can expect the rest of next week to be easily below normal by a few degrees. However, the lake effect focus will not be on us, so occasional bouts of lake effect snow or synoptic snow can be expected.
If our thoughts on the snow total change, we'll post an update. Also, any reports of snow at your location would be greatly appreciated!
I will beleive it when I see it. Tight now it is barely snowing in Gananda. Another East Coast storm next week and, at this point, another miss for Rochester.
ReplyDeleteum Scott you said "However, the lake effect focus will not be on us," shouldnt that read "However, the lake effect focus will be on us,"
ReplyDeleteand "Therefore, numbers will be higher further south. " should read "Therefore, numbers will be higher further north. "
In looking at the radar all the Heavier Lake effect snow is on Niagara and Orleans county. They should put up warnings there and drop them for MOnroe and Wayne Counties.
ReplyDeletethe snow is under the radar beam... It is snowing hard here in Ontario, NY the radar just cant see it.
ReplyDeleteStill just a few flurries in Gananda. I have had maybe an inch all day through this evening.
ReplyDeleteWow. 4-6 inches. What will we do with it all????? Whoopdi dooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Nickle and dime, Nickle and dime. The beat goes on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteBring on spring!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
ReplyDelete4-6 inches is still a good snowfall and it is supposed to snow all week this week so we still may get more then that as the week goes on.
ReplyDeleteBut it is the same old inch here and inch there.
ReplyDeleteIt is boring. We still cannot get a good synoptic snowstorm around here. I guess I am just looking for that BIG event that is just not in the cards so far.
if we get 1 inch everyday from Dec 1 through March we will have way over our average snowfall we would get around 120 inches a year so 1 inch here and one inch there is not small it is a lot more then you can think
ReplyDeleteChannel 10 is saying 10-16 by monday morning for Rochester North and East. They are saying the heaviest snow will accur Sunday afternoon and evening.They are also saying some areas will receive more the 16 inches of snow. That is quite a bit more than channel 8 is saying.
ReplyDeleteIt's still snowing here in West Webster (1/4 mile from the lake). I'd say we have about 10 or so inches already, but I don't have a guage--just watching it pile up on neighbors' cars.
ReplyDeleteLet it Snow!