THIS PIE DOESN'T TASTE SO GOOD
Written By: Scott Hetsko
You live by your forecast and you DIE by your forecast. As you know, I expected 1-4" of snow for Rochester metro today but we are getting a bit more than that this afternoon. I'll be honest when I'm wrong and I didn't expect the boundary layer winds to veer this far North this afternoon. I had no doubt that the Lake Erie band would be long but I did expect it to stay South of I-90 this afternoon and evening. Look out your window and you can see that clearly isn't the case.
Now let's talk about the evening ahead. This band will certain dive back to the South but roads will continue to be slick in the Rochester area through the evening commute. Please take your time on the roads, winds are blowing this powdery snow around reducing visibilities further. The snow will be heaviest West of Rochester through 6 p.m.
You da man, Scott. I was going to give you some grief about your forecast of the lake snow advisory for Monroe county being overblown, but you admit you blew it so my kudos.
ReplyDeleteAs far as 1-4" --I've had about 2" in < 1hr (Greece). Total has to be pushing 5 or 6 now.
I hope you are right about it going back south if this continues it'll be an easy 6-8 in another couple of hours. I can barely see the house across the street (~40 yards).
If you see my post before Scott I was in the same boat. At noon, or shortly before I started to see the band off Lake Erie move back north but I really thought it was a small oscillation in the winds. Then after relaxing I went out and the clear sidewalk I had seen an hour earlier had about an inch of snow on it. As Scott said, "you live by your forecast you DIE by your forecast."
ReplyDeleteI live in Gananda and have only seen maybe 1.5 inches.
ReplyDeleteI'm the one who warned of this happening, and it did. I said that we were underestimating this event, and that we would be caught of guard, and we are. But it's okay, you're not the only one who completely underestimated this event. Forecasting events like this are very difficult. I still think that you are by far the best meteorologist in Rochester, Scott. Hands down.
ReplyDeleteRemarkable, 50 minutes later the sun is poking out. Looks like about 2-3" fell in the hour or two it snowed. I'd guess for about 40 minutes from just before 2:45 until about 3:25 it was really intense over here. My wife said it was white out on Rt 31 in Spencerport, very scary. Fortunately, people behaved and no accidents.
ReplyDeleteKudos to you, good job. I can't deny giving you credit on this one. Looking ahead into the evening the band is slowly dropping South but will impact Rochester and South towns through the early evening. Very impressive bands of both lakes today...we knew this would come!
ReplyDeleteThanks, Scott. I suspect that the hardest hit for the next few hours will be from Henrietta down to about Honeoye Falls. a few ripples traveling up the band might give a quick burst or two further north, but I think metro Rochester is just about done with this event.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteYOU DA MAN! I really appreciate that you admitted your missed forecast, but hey, you've been correct many times before too, I know! You guys don't hype things up and are pretty straighforward. I AM A VERY HAPPY CAMPER TODAY WITH LOTS OF SNOW HERE IN WEST HENRIETTA!!!!! WOOHOOOO!!!!
Scott,
ReplyDeleteWatch that shortwave that is backing the winds off lake Michigan. Another surprise backing of the band back into Genesee and Western Monroe county might be coming. I think the chances of it reaching Rochester this time around is less likely considering the slightly decreased wind velocity. But something to watch, again.