WANT A SNOWY WINTER? IT BETTER START SOON!
Written By: Scott Hetsko
From the looks of most of the posters on our blog lately, most of you WANT a snowy Winter! Looking at history, time is not on your side. There have been 8 "slow starts" since 1940 where under 12" of snow fell before January first. The average total snowfall for those Winters was only 70", about 30" below our seasonal normal! In fact only in 2006-2007 did we get over 100" of snow for the season.
The next storm system will gives us a period of snow late tomorrow night which will likely accumulate 1-3" before changing over to rain showers. Bitter cold and strong winds will blow bands of lake snow showers well inland from Lake Erie. These bands won't be as robust as they could be due to the strong winds limiting the amount of time the air has to gather moisture over the lake but hey it's something!
I won't expect much snow this winter due to a strong basin wide El Nino. This is how I see it playing out based on the pattern so far:
ReplyDelete1) Lake Cutters, giving us rain or slop
2) Nor'easters, but we're left cold and dry.
3) Lake effect, but many events targeting BUF and SYR, missing ROC.
4) A winter to be dominated by rain/slop storms and nickle and dime LES, giving us an inch here, two inches there....that's about it.
My prediction for total snow this winter: 40 inches, and I'm being liberal here. Congrats, Toronto, Buffalo, Syracuse, Boston, New York, everywhere except the big fat snow hole that Rochester resides in. I'm moving to the Husdon Valley next year and THANK GOD I AM (not because of the weather). No LES there and less avg snow totals, but at LEAST I get to experience heavy snow when a true Nor'Easter comes by. Good riddance to high and dry ROC, the snow hole capital of NYS.
So scott, are you saying that the lake Erie band (shredded as it may be) will make it all the way to Rochester with this event?
ReplyDeleteI honestly don't know how you can say "snow hole" in Rochester when we average 100" a season! We do get our share of big snows whether lake effect or synoptic. El Nino Winter's have been snowy around here but I agree that through January we'll have a lot of slop storms followed by LES.
ReplyDeleteAs for the near future, the lake band from Erie may touch us for a while Thursday afternoon and evening if winds veer WSW. Also given the isothermal profile of temperatures just after midnight Wednesday, 1-3" "burst" of snow is possible before a changeover.
Is there any explanation for all of these storms tracking to our west? I can't remember such a pattern re-establishing itself each year like it has been for the last couple. It really does get frustrating for those of us that just want some good powder.
ReplyDeleteScott, you've got to be getting a little frustrated too. It's December and we haven't even seen two full inches of snow yet...and then we have to deal with more of these under underachiever storms that throw rain at us. It would be okay if it happened once and awhile, but it seems like this is becoming the norm everytime a storm comes our way. And now, we can't even get a good NW wind to give us lake effect hopes. You can't deny that we seem to be giving up every opportunity for major snow. It's like watching the Bills give away the game every week lol.
ReplyDeleteAbout the snow hole comment, sorry about that...just out of frustration that we seem to miss the big ones lately and I just miss seeing snow in my backyard! I did enjoy the 1.6 inches we got last week thanks to Lake Erie, but this past weekend's storm was such a tease. Today is also a tease with a huge virga storm in NYS, nothing reaching the ground, although I sense some snow now reaching the ground in BUF moving east, so maybe our area could see a coating tonight.
ReplyDeleteScott, with such an active and juicy subtropical jet, is there ANY reasonable chance that we see a storm track that would put ROC in the deformation zone sweet spot for a major foot plus accumulation this winter? And you know what? Even if our season total ends up far below avg. if we can even get ONE strong snowstorm or blizzard around here, I WOULD BE PERFECTLY HAPPY WITH THE WINTER!
Absolutely we can get in the sweet spot!!! I go back to March 1999 when we recorded 45" of snow in just 3 days! That was an El Nino Winter when finally a Coastal low got close enough to produce a prolonged period of lake enhanced snow. Now that type of event is rare but I would be shocked if we don't get at least one good storm this year.
ReplyDeleteI thought 1998-99 was a La Nina, but anyway, I hear what you're saying.
ReplyDeleteLOL....I'm just going to rant more more time....today, was at work, saw some darker echoes over W Henrietta just a while back off of Lake Erie...I thought, "Great! some snow showers here in ROC..maybe a coating when I get home!"
Got home....not a flake to be found. Only Virga, while of course, both Buffalo and Syrause have snow coming down to the ground. Seems like if there's a way for it not to snow, it's going to happen.
I feel like we live in a SNOW HOLE as well. Yeah we get maybe 100 inches a year, but it is usually nickle and dime stuff off lake Ontario. 2 inches here, 3 inches here. For the most part we miss true snowstorms of 6 plus inches. Over the past several years TRUE snowstorms pass to our West or South and East. I mean how many times over the past several years have I heard the heaviset snow South and East, South and East. The true lake effect storms are always South and West of ROC or North and East of Roc. That is just the way it is. I better get out my snowblower for this 1-3 inch whopper that will melt on Wednesday. I think we will be luck if we see an inch. Most of the Lake effect will be in Buffalo and the North of syracuse on a West wind.
ReplyDeleteWe never get a NW wind when these storms pass. Bring on Spring.
I can understand how you might feel like we miss out on a lot of storms. It is true that a lot of storms that move through either the Great Lakes or the East Coast can miss us but it isn't like we have gone with out big snows since 1993 or 1999. Just looking over snows going back to just Dec. 2005 here are a few "BIG" snow that we have experienced.
ReplyDeleteValentines Day 2007 - 17.8 inches of snow
From Dec. 19 through the 21 of 2008 - Rochester got 17.4 inches in three days
New Years Eve of 2008 11.7 inches fell
The ones I didn't mention were a 6" snowfall here a 2 to 3 inches of snow over a couple of days, the occasional 4" but overall they do add up very quickly over a couple of days or weeks.
Growing up in Indiana, where a 2 to 4 inches was considered a big snow and 6-8" was a massive storm it is always interesting how peoples perspectives change depending on where they live. My family now lives in Virginia near DC and both my sister and mother are teachers. Schools get canceled when there is a breath of snow in the forecast.
I am still think there is a lot of winter left. I agree with Scott that if December doesn't produce more snow and El Nino turns out to be stronger than expected then this winter would turn out to be a below average year.
I realize that we've had some good storms that past few years. I loved last December! But, it seems that the trend has been less snowstorms over the years and more nickle and dime LES, which still amounts to decent snows overall for the season. And yeah, it's hard to hear each time how the heaviest snow is always east, south, or west of ROC.
ReplyDeleteForget heavy, we couldnt' even buy a flake TODAY. BUF had snow, SYR having snow right now. ROC = 0. Let's see how much we get tomorrow night. With our bad luck so far this winter, we'll probably start off as sleet and switch to rain within the hour with no snow...lol. I wouldn't be surprised.
I think if everyone else around the NE was suffering from a relative snow drought like we are, I wouldnt' be as miserable about it, but it seems like the snow just keeps escaping the area while others are celebrating snow.
Anyway, it's still early so let's hope for the best. We can't control mother nature.
Listen, if enough of us humans "wish", "pray', or dance for snow, we can make it so. forget the scientific data, have a little faith. It's a season of JOY after all! Love to all.
ReplyDelete