YOU MIGHT NEED YOUR SHOVEL
Written By: Scott Hetsko
Surging moisture ahead of a powerful storm crossing the mid west will bump into cold air here in Western New York overnight. The result will be several hours of snow which may accumulate up to 4 or 5 inches in the Northern Finger Lakes by early morning. There should be enough snow to cause slick roads for early morning commuters. Milder air changes snow over to rain showers well before noon.
As the storm deepens to our North Wednesday night, very strong winds (gusts near 60 mph) and very cold air blow into town. Expect lake snows to be heaviest Southwest of Rochester Thursday with snow showers elsewhere. The cold weather will continue into the weekend. The good news for Winter lovers is that this cold pattern will continue next week. There are also signs of a storm which may take a track more favorable for a sizeable snowfall here mid week next week....keep checking back for more.
Scott,
ReplyDeleteI think the NWS is underestimating the eastward extent of this lake erie band. The layer boundry winds will be, by far, strong enough to carry this band right into monroe and livingston county. I wouldn't even be surprised to see narrow but very intense bands peak into Ontario and Wayne county from time to time. I very strongly believe that Rochester is being incorrectly overlooked with this lake effect event. The NWS needs to at least consider the possibility that there could be near blizzard conditions somewhere from Rochester to Geneseo from late Wednesday thru late Thursday.
Yes but the only problem is that the band will only be over us for 1-3 hours MAX early Thursday. Boundary layer winds will become Westerly quickly which will cause that band to shift South of our area. Sorry but I think we'll get more snow tonight than we will for lake effect Thursday.
ReplyDeleteThe Models are showing a very impressive snow storm next Tuesday and Wednesday somewhere in the NE. You watch, this one will be a storm that misses us South and East. The GFS takes this storm and its heaviest snows East of us right now. We will see, but I bet this will another one we talk about next week that is a miss.
ReplyDeletea lake effect setup like this one sometimes produces a lake-induced trough with cyclonic curvature which can keep winds backed more SWly than some models capture. If this happens in this event, then Rochester / Monroe county will be caught off guard in a big way, thus my concern that things are being underestimated for Rochester this time around. But if that isn't realized, then I still believe Livingston and Ontario counties will need similar headlines to Erie and Wyoming counties by tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteIf next week's storm misses us south and east, yes it will be a huge bummer, BUT, the LES behind it will be from a northwest direction, and hopefully, create multiple LES bands for ROC metro at the very least with bitter cold temps. These lake waters are above normal temps for this time of year, so any LES that gets going under bitter cold air is going to be massive. You just have to be lucky to under a band for a long time.
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