A LOOK AT THE WEEK AHEAD
Written by: Brian Neudorff
The weekend started off very cold and snowy Friday night with lake effect accumulating over 6 inches Friday night and almost an inch and a half Saturday morning giving Rochester a total of 7.6" for that lake effect event. This kept a streak of 10 straight days of measurable snow going until Sunday when it came to an end. Sunday featured its own weather highlight by starting off very cold with a morning low down around 4 below.
A new week is here and there's some good news. It's good news if you want a break from the cold and snow. Let's start with the first two days of this new week:
A weak storm system sliding through the Great Lakes on Monday will bring with it some light snow. Temperatures will be just a touch below the average daily high of 31 ranging from the mid to upper 20s. The snow should arrive sometime from late afternoon into the evening. If you're a snow lover I wouldn't get to excited. The snow should only accumulate an inch maybe 2" going into Tuesday. Once this disturbance passes there could be some limited lake effect Tuesday morning but shouldn't cause to many issues or amount to much of any snow.
By the middle of the week warmer air begins to arrive and we should see our 2nd 30 plus degree reading since New Years Day. Highs should reach the low 30s on Wednesday, the warmer air could spark some light snow across the region but as of now I think we will see some clouds and sunshine for Wednesday. An area of high pressure continues to build in and temperatures continue to warm. I am going to be a little conservative on high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, but expect Thursday to be our warmest with a high reaching the upper 30s and maybe a 40 degree reading somewhere in Western New York.
As we close out the week I noticed over the weekend that there was some discussion on this blog about a storm for the upcoming weekend. Unfortunately now the models seem to be pushing this storm more into early next week and keeping it south and out to see. Again as we like to say, you need to look at long range models especially 5 days and beyond, and take them with a little grain of salt. As you have probably read from all of us in the News 8 weather team we rarely get excited about a storm showing up on models several days out. It tends to be par for the course during the winter and many of you are noticing this as well.
As of now, and of course this is very much subject to change, a weak trough will slide across the Great Lakes once again by Friday into Saturday. Could spark some light snow and a shot of colder air but doesn't look to be as harsh as some of the cold spells we've seen since the start of January.
Morning Brian
ReplyDeleteI have a question about el nino. I have been monitoring the website listed below, which shows the SST anomalies. Today's anomalies are in, and when you compare them to basically any day in late december, you can see a rather significant cooling trend beginning. Is el nino now beginning to weaken? I can only imagine what a collapsing el nino will mean for the end of the winter. Here's the link: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html
Thanks for the comment, as for El Nino yes it does look like it is weakening some. Most indications from models was that the El Nino would start to weaken some going into early 2010 but is still forecasted to persist into the spring of 2010.
ReplyDeleteAlthough it is weakening some don't think that changes the overall pattern we have been seeing. Plus the cold outbreak we were seeing the first 10 days of the year were due to a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and not El Nino.
I have a question about something I read on accuweather. Joe Bastardi is hinting that after a week or two of milder weather, the same type of pattern that gave the U.S. this freakish cold is going to return with a vengeance by the end of January into February. Do you think this might become a reality?
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