SIGNS OF WINTER RETURNING
FORECAST TEMPERATURE AT APPROXIMATELY
5,000 FEET FOR NEXT FRIDAY MORNING
Written By: Scott Hetsko
When we look long range at computer models, we're not looking for specifics but general trends in the overall pattern. This map (click on it to make it bigger) shows much colder air driving South from Central Canada as a major pattern shift begins to take shape for the Northeast going into February. Temperatures will likely stay in the teens and 20s from late next week into the first week of the new month.
As for snowfall, that's impossible to really even speculate at this point so let's go ahead and do it anyway. There may be a significant coastal low that develops along the Arctic boundary next weekend. I suspect that we'll see many days of the typical lake effect snows with localized significant amounts. It's likely that even colder air will dive into the Northeast February 1-3rd timeframe.
Oh boy! This is going to be very exciting. When not only the GFS, but the ECMWF is very bullish on the idea of big time cold...look out! I know there will be people on here saying "so what, it will be cold but no storms in sight," but I have a gut feeling that within a couple weeks we're going to be buried in snow. You know, the kind where it's hard to see around the corner at intersections because the snow banks at the curbs are so high from so much snow being plowed off the roads! Scott, doesn't it seem like the cold this time MIGHT coincide with a more synoptic friendly storm track for us, as opposed to late Dec/ early Jan.?
ReplyDeleteHey scott do you think this storm that might come at us along the Arctic boundary will be in the form of ALL snow?
ReplyDeleteI think it is likely that a storm will take shape along this boundary and travel along it up the coast. I'll put it this way, it's one of our best shots this Winter of a significant areawide snow. It's 7-8 days away so we all know (or should) that no promises should be made at this point. I can guarentee that after the next two days, our weather will not be that nice again consistently for at least 2 weeks.
ReplyDeleteHow much of this weather pattern if any is an effect of the strong El Niño winds from the west coast? I am definately a novice when it comes to weather, but it always seems to me that when there is a strong El Niño wind battering the west coast the east coast is usually cold but dry. Do I have any idea what I'm talking about ??
ReplyDeleteWhen the west is getting battered, it often means the east is average to above average temperature-wise, because the deep trough that is causing the western storms is forcing up a ridge in the east. Often times that puts the east in an initial period of dryness, but not necesarilly cold.
ReplyDeleteOk but doesn't that mean we should be looking at warmer temps in the coming weeks with the El Niño being as strong as it is ?
ReplyDeletenot necesarilly, because patterns break down over time. The 40's and thaw that we have been experiencing in the last week is the warmer temps that you're talking about. So, we're in it right now. But that trough in the west is about to shift eastward over time, eventually placing us in the colder weather. Plus, it should be noted that not all el nino's are the same, and this hasn't been a typical el nino year. The cold has proven to win out more often than not so far. Part of the reason is teleconnections that have overpowered el nino's effects from time to time.
ReplyDeleteHopefully i'm making a little sense. It's hard to answer your question without getting way too complex.
ReplyDeleteThat's OK, I understand what you're saying. Thank You !!
ReplyDelete