WINTER STRIKES BACK!
Written By: Scott Hetsko
Image: College of DuPage
Serious cold is coming to Western New York beginning Thursday evening. The image above is forecast temperatures in Celsius just after midnight Friday morning. Arctic air of -20 to -24 will be over the area at this time. Lake induced capes will soar which means fluffy lake snows will be falling Thursday night into Friday. Given past experience, several inches of snow is likely North of I-90 during this time with over 6" likely for Northern Orleans, Monroe and Wayne counties.
The other big story will be the bitter cold airmass in place Friday. I doubt we'll do much better than 12 or 13 degrees with wind chills well below zero all day long. Subzero temperatures will be widespread Saturday morning South of the thruway where skies will clear as high pressure builds East. Please bundle up and get prepared for snow and blowing snow beginning Thursday.
Scott,
ReplyDeleteCan you help me understand why the NWS has hoisted flags for every county along the south shore of lake Ontario...EXCEPT monroe county? Do they think we're going to dodge the snow?
I really don't get it either. I'd put a watch out for us for tomorrow night and early Friday as well. Last time we got 6" plus North of the city so I don't see why that won't occur again. Blowing and drifting will make driving worse. They'll get wise tomorrow, I'm sure.
ReplyDeleteDo you think the band that is forecast to reintensify off lake Erie will reach Rochester later tonight or early tomorrow? I know the boundary layer winds probably won't be strong enough, but it seems like one of those cases where as the front passes through, it captures the band and noses it into central monroe county for a time.
ReplyDeleteYes that band will reach Rochester overnight and early Thursday as boundary layer winds go WSW for a time. I expect a slippery ride to work both tomorrow and Friday mornings
ReplyDeleteUpon reading the Warning for Orleans and Niagara county, I see it's due to the band off Erie before it shifts south. I would have at least issued an advisory for Monroe for the early part, then a watch for when the wind shifts off Ontario. Oh well. I'm feeling a little overwhelmed by the breakdown of the timing and position of it all. I'm sure the NWS is feeling that way too...espcially since they sort of busted the Buffalo event today.
ReplyDeleteWait a minute...this doesn't make any sense. How is it that Niagara and Orleans county are under a warning until 6:00 PM tomorrow for LES off lake erie on a SW / WSW wind....yet the watch goes into effect for Wayne on a NW wind beginning tomorrow "afternoon." Those are two flags that require totally different wind directions, yet they overlap. I don't understand the timing of this all...
ReplyDeleteSorry guys, this fluffy lake effect snow this winter is beginning to bore me. Washingtion DC will have had 2 synoptic snowstorms too match our NONE for the year. 6 inches of fake fluff is nothing.
ReplyDelete