LAKE EFFECT TO CAUSE SLICK AM & PM COMMUTES

Written by: Brian Neudorff

UPDATE: 11AM

From some of the reports I saw it appears the above graphic was pretty accurate. I think I may have over done it to the west into Orleans, Genesee & Wyoming counties. From the NWS, Rochester had received 2.5" of snow around 9am and Palmyra at an inch.

I have little change to the forecast. As of writing this around 11am the Arctic front was getting ready to pass through Western New York. Once the front passes the winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph gusts to 35 to 40 mph. Expect blowing snow with whiteout conditions this afternoon. Also temperatures will drop into the teens and wind chill values will drop below zero.

ORIGINAL POST
Going to use today's blog post to update through the morning on the lake effect and arctic front as it passes through western NY later this morning. The above graphic is a look at how much snow could fall between now into the midday. Winds have shifted the overnight bands from the western counties into Monroe county. I am leaning more to the lower amounts on this map. I think places to the east like Wayne & Ontario counties get just a coating with around an inch or 2 for southeastern Monroe county. Then as you go into western, especially southwestern Monroe county 2 maybe 3 inches could fall. More could be added depending on the kind of burst we see when the Arctic front passes through the region later this morning.

Once this front passes conditions will deteriorate as winds increase out of the west-Northwest to 20 to 30 mph and potential gusts of 40. That would cause messy conditions with the blowing snow and whiteout conditions. Also bitter cold air follows and by the afternoon temperatures will have fallen into the mid teens for many location.



Going into the late afternoon and evening we start to see more lake effect kick in. This time our focus is off of Lake Ontario. We may even see a connection from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, placing the higher amounts along the shores of Lake Ontario. Right now, my thinking is we coudl get 4 to 8 additional inches, (not counting what fell the first half of the day) along the shores of Lake Ontario through Orleans, Monroe, and Wayne counties. Southern Monroe and along the Thruway could pick up 3 to 6 fluffy inches with lesser amounts to the south.

I have a feeling we may have to tweek this some going into the afternoon and evening once we start to see where the lake effect bands begin to set up and if we see a connection with Huron and Georgian Bay.

Through out the morning I will update later around 10am at the very top if I feel there have been some changes.