FREAKY FEBRUARY
Written by: Bob Metcalfe
What can I say, this February, this winter has been extraordinary. No, not for good ol' Rochester, NY, but rather for the big cities along the I-95 corridor as well as most of the Delmarva region.
The graphic says it all. Monthly temperatures are averaging 5-10 degrees below normal for several Mid-Atlantic sites, which is a HUGE deviation. You could categorize a 3 or 4 degree departure as significant, so this is quite astounding.
And then there's the snow statistics. Baltimore absolutely demolished their old season snowfall total already, with plenty of winter remaining. Numbers are near or above records for many other locations including Wilmington, Philly, and DC. To add insult to injury, most of them have seen more snow than us.
So the dredges of winter move on, and we remain cold over the next week. The pattern doesn't look like it plans on moving too much, with daytime highs in the upper 20s and overnight lows in the teens with just nickle-and-dime snow showers or flurries at times. We've got a lot of catching up to do...
Hi Bob,
ReplyDeleteI think you summed it up when you state, "We've got a lot of catching up to do." And on that note, here is my question. The sun is getting higher in the sky, and the so called "battle of the air masses" is not too far away. Regardless of how strong and persistant this southern jet has been this winter, won't it naturally want to shift north in the coming weeks? And can't the deep snow cover in place to our south actually help us if / when it does, by keep storms from coming north...but not too far north as to bring us the rain / snow stuff? And then combine this with a weakening el nino as we move into late Feb and into March. I guess what i'm getting at here is, what is your and your weather team's feelings on the period of later Feb into March? Think we'll make up for loss time?
A bunch of good questions.
ReplyDeleteYes it's true that naturally the southern stream jet will want to move northward over the coming months, but there's plenty of variability tied into that as well. Reinforcing cold shots seem to be the moral of the story and will likely continue for the near term.
Deep snow cover to the south can actually help fuel storms. That snow has to melt at some point, so there will be an abundance of soil and ambient moisture throughout the mid-Atlantic over the coming weeks. If we see a more "normal" northeast snowstorm track in the next few weeks, it'll have a little added fuel from our friends to the south.
It's also true that El Nino seems to be weaking. This could play around with the southern jet positioning as well, possibly making it LESS active. I think the NAO will be a big player in determining what the rest of the winter has in store for us. Just a sidenote: The biggest storms in history developled when a strongly negative NAO was becoming LESS negative.
Thanks, Bob. Sounds like you're remaining optimistic!
ReplyDeleteI'm tryin' to pull for the snow lovers here! Who knows though...
ReplyDeletebob are you a snow lover?
ReplyDeleteBobby is a snowman like the rest of the team! We thrist for a nice big storm to predict too!
ReplyDeleteScott how do winters here compare to winter's back in your hometown?
ReplyDeleteAppreciate it, Bob and the team! You rock!
ReplyDeleteWe had a few humdinigers in Scranton PA but more the area there averages 45" a season. 1993, 1996, 1978 were some of the big ones that I recall. I like Rochester winters MUCH more because of the added help from Ontario except lately of course!
ReplyDeleteDallas Texas has now seen a bigger synoptic snowstorm than we have had all winter.. Now we are spectators to a storm that will hit the deep South. Many areas in the south will have seen a bigger snowstorm than Rochester this year. Pretty sick.
ReplyDeleteI am working on a blog post on the snow storm in the south and in Dallas. This is crazy.
ReplyDeleteParlty cloudy sounds so depressing. mostly sunny is a more positive spin. at night terms that could be used could be partly moonlite or mostly moonlite skys. With the depressing weather we get in rochester, we need all the upbeat terms as posible
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