SNAP SHOT OF FEBRUARY & NEXT WEEKS STORM
Written by: Brian Neudorff
Have you been looking for a good explanation for the kind of February we've been experiencing? I think the NWS office in Buffalo and a good description in this mornings Forecast Discussion:
VERY PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR WEEKS AND LOOKS TO REMAIN SO FOR ANOTHER WEEK TO TEN DAYS AT LEAST. THIS GREENLAND BLOCK...EXTREME NEG NAO/AO...HAS SERVED TO SUPPRESS ANY MAJOR SOUTHERN STEAM SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...GIVING US A WINTER OF VIRTUALLY NO SYNOPTIC SNOWS...AND PROVIDING NEAR ENDLESS BOUTS OF MINOR UPSLOPE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALLS ACROSS OUR REGION. WED NT'S MODEST SNOW OF 2 TO 6 INCHES WAS ACTUALLY THE HEAVIEST OF THE MONTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS PATTERN HAS LED TO SOME VERY UNUSUAL SNOWFALL STATISTICS FOR FEBRUARY (& MOST OF THE WINTER) SO FAR...WITH RECORD SNOWFALLS IN A STRIP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE NORMALLY SNOWIER NORTHERN CITIES HAVE BEEN SPARED. HERE ARE SOME EXAMPLES OF FEBRUARY SNOWFALLS THROUGH 5 PM TODAY...I also wanted to add that although we've been cold so far this February, this is not the coldest February we've seen in the last 3 years. We were much colder during the first 18 days of February of 2007 and yes that Feb did have a big snow storm, which you may remember the Valentines day storm where over 17 inches of snow fell. Had there not been that storm we would have only seen 17.7 inches of nickel and dime snow for the first 18 days.
"MILDER" CITIES...
BALTIMORE (BWI)
49.3*
.WASHINGTON (IAD)..46.1*
PHILADELPHIA...
45.9*
PITTSBURGH.....
40.0 (REC 40.2)
.WASHINGTON (DCA)..32.0
COLUMBUS.......
25.8
CINCINNATI.....
23.6*
(* ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS)
"COLDER CITIES"
PORTLAND (ME)..
1.6
TORONTO........
4.3
BUFFALO........
6.4
BOSTON.........
6.9
ROCHESTER......
9.9
Look at Monday & Tuesday Storm:
This pattern is going to continue and I think it will have an impact on the next storm. I looked at the models as of 9:45a the NAM, GFS and UKMET and not much has changed. If you want the storm close to us then you love the look of the 12Z NAM as it seems to bring the center of this storm closest to us with out rapidly forming a new storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
The GFS as of the 0Z run has a double barreled low-pressure with one weakening and transferring its energy to a new storm off the Mid-Atlantic. Then the UKMET seems to be more of what I am thinking and is consistent with the current pattern we've been in. The storm stays south. Parts to the south get light snow and we see some snow with lake effect as this system moves up the New England coast.
So you don't think that parent low is going to cut northeastward into Northern Ohio like the GFS and NAM are suggesting?
ReplyDeleteI don't think this storm is going to be as discouraging as you make it out to be. The parent low should cut into Ohio, maybe even northern Ohio and track very close to us. Even if it does start to transfer its energy before reaching us, we should still be in line for a widespread several inches. And anyway, the difference this time is that areas to our south shouln't get buried while we are spectators. It might even rain in Ohio and PA from this one, while WE get the snow. I just feel like you are being too much of a downer on this one, Brian, when there are several factors that make this storm different from the others. And also, the GFS DOES look differently on last night's and this AM's runs compared to earlier yesterday. It didn't have that parent low coming anywhere near as close as it is now showing.
ReplyDeleteWOW, It's kind of funny that I'm being called the downer when all comments from many (not all) this winter have been downers on winter, on passing storms, and upcoming forecasts.
ReplyDeleteI think we will see snow, I didn't say we wouldn't but as of right now I don't think it is the major synoptic event that many on here have been hoping or wanting. It's still to early but we have an idea and if I see the trend to more north of the parent low then you'll probably here me change my tune when the time comes. I don't jump on every change that happens in the model I wait and see trends.
Thank you both for your comments and they are always appreciate.
Let's leave the predictions to the REAL experts, AKA, Brian, Bob and Scott!
ReplyDeleteThank you.
Brian, you are right on. This storm is going to split in two. We will be in the middle of it all.
ReplyDeleteHeavier precip to the West and the South. Then another storm moves up the coast and misses us again.
Thanks but this is not a battle I think it is great to see so many of you with a passion and a very solid knowledge of weather.
ReplyDeleteIf you see something and want to share it when it comes to the forecast this is a great forum for it. I am just not ready to jump on any one particular model run. Time will tell. Give it time. Trust me I wish I could get excited over storms that look great several days away or even 3 days away but I learned a long time ago that's not the smart approach.
Keep the comments coming.
Here here! BTW look at 850 temps and you'll see that it's more likely we'll see a wintry mix for awhile Monday night / Tuesday. It'll be more fun to watch the coast late in the week
ReplyDelete