A WEEK OF SPECULATION BEGINS!
Written By: Scott Hetsko
All the long range signs are positive for a major East Coast storm late next week to close out February. We all have been teased with big snowstorms this Winter but what makes this one different is where it may stall next Friday and Saturday. A 980mb low not moving with it's center in Burlington Vermont is the perfect spot for heavy snow here in Western New York. Remember March 1999? I'm not saying we'll get 45" of snow over three days but I will say that this is our best shot so far this Winter for getting a D.C. ish snowstorm.
I'm sure you have lots of opinions but obviously it's a week away and some long range models have a long history of bombing out storms 170 hours out only for that storm to never materialize. It will be fun to watch and forecast the next 4-6 days for sure. Enjoy the nice weekend weather, near 40 on Sunday with some sunshine!!!
I saw that in the models this morning Scott.I was not sure what to make of it, but if it does verify we could be in for that BIG snowstorm we have all been waiting for. It will be fun to watch as you said.
ReplyDeleteWhat's cool about the prospects for this one is that not only does the GFS show it, but the ECMWF (Euro) also agrees with a remarkably same solution. That doesn't happen very often this far out. But wouldn't it make sense that this happens? I've been saying how mother nature has a way of making of for months of lost time by giving one huge dumping at once. For that low to sit over the very areas that have been so very snow starved seems very consistent with how she operates on planet earth.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeletewhen looking at the GFS and NAM model runs, how can I tell where the rain / snow line is going to be? Is the 0c line at 850 a good rule of thumb as to where it would be, or is that something entirely different?
The storm on Monday and Tuesday looks more and more like it will be a LOW impact for us. The storm splits before it reaches us moving the heavier snow to our West and South. Typical for this winter. I bet we may warm enough to see a little rain.
ReplyDeleteWow, the NAVY NOGAPS, and the GEFS, hint at that retrograding low. Some have it backing up all the way to the Adirondacks. Scott, is it an especially ominous sign that nearly ALL of the major models are picking up on this retrograding low next week? Don't some of the biggest, most pronounced storms get picked up by so many models like this?
ReplyDeleteLet's hope your models are wrong.
ReplyDeleteFrom Accuweather this morning: 3. Second storm comes up from the Gulf of Mexico and gets pulled into the Polar Vortex. Areas north of I-70 and PA Turnpike get walloped with snow. Some areas of western NY, Ontario and NW PA could end up with 2-3 feet of snow with blowing and drifting. That's 2-3 feet total for all the storms that bring snow. It's not out of the question that places like Buffalo, Erie, Cleveland, Toronto and Rochester get the full fury of a big Daddy Blizzard this time. It will snow all the way to the I-95 cities, but probably not the big snows you have been use to getting.
ReplyDeleteThe current tun of the GFS has now backed off on the storm next weekend.
ReplyDeleteIt has it a little further east, but we still get a good shot of snow as it stacks up over New England. But I hope it doesn't continue to trend further east, or we'll be out of it...once again. I heard that it all has to do with the strength and positioning of the Greenland block up north, which is currently strengthening.
ReplyDeleteIs that good that its strengthening?
ReplyDeleteWell, the way this winter has gone my guess is that we will miss out once again and will be spectators to a major blizzard east of us.
ReplyDelete>>>>>Buffalo nWS discussion about next week. According to them we miss out once again>>>>>
ReplyDeleteFOR NOW FAVOR THE LESS EXTREME ECMWF/GEFS MEAN
SOLUTION. SUCH SYSTEMS VERY RARELY BRING ANY TRULY HEAVY SNOW TO WESTERN NY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF AND SITTING IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME MAY ADD UP. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER SNOW APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. FOR NOW WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. GIVEN THIS IS STILL 5-7 DAYS OUT...EXPECT PLENTY OF MODEL VARIABILITY FROM RUN TO RUN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. UNTIL THEN...THE DETAILS IN ANY ONE MODEL RUN SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.-- End Changed Discussion --
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