WHAT'S UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY?
Written by: Bob Metcalfe
The images show the parallel GFS/NAM runs for 6z Tuesday, ie about 1am Tuesday morning. While it is encouraging that we are at least going to get a little piece of the action, this is not the storm that the snow lovers have been dreaming of.
The low centers of both models are quite in line with one another, even for this far out, and model runs have been getting more and more consistent. But this means that the low center will in fact pass just west of us, allowing for a warmer influx of air ahead of arrival and bringing us a very high likelihood of a wintry mix late Monday and even into Tuesday. The dark blue 540 thickness line is used as a good benchmark for the rain/snow line, and especially on the GFS it comes right into northern PA.
Bob do you think this will change over to plain rain for a time, or will we hold on to snow most of the time? Will we see at least enough snow for it to accumulate?
ReplyDeleteFrom what I have read on accuweather, we might get a bunch!
ReplyDeletea bunch from the Monday/Tuesday storm?
ReplyDeleteYeah, that is what they were showing earlier, May have changed. It was early this AM when I was glancing at it...
ReplyDeleteI had the same question. Are we going to see a solid accumulating snow for awhile monday evening into tuesday? Even if we get a period of sleet or light rain at night, how much snow will accumulate?
ReplyDeleteI'd say it's extremely hard to see purely rain at any point during this "storm", but a decent wet mix will likely occur for some time. The atmosphere is very marginal in regards to precip type throughout the duration of Monday night and early Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see snow, but I just don't see a lot stacking up. We'll have very low snow/water ratios, meaning lower numbers per unit of water. Often times though, this heavy snow can be more of a burden than 6" of fluff.
If we end up flipping over to pure snow at the "peak" of the storm, 2 or 3 inches could easy stack up in spots relatively quickly. I want one more day of obs and data before I start posting my numbers.
The next and bigger focus will be late this week. Classic set up for sustained wind/cold/lake effect snow. Nickel and dime yes, but it could add up!
Just know that any time a storm like this passes to our west, we usually get the shaft with regards to snow amounts. But you should know that from this year already :-P
ReplyDeleteBob are you confident that 850 temps will be cold enough for good LES later next week?
ReplyDeleteHey bob I just looked at the latest 0z run of the NAM. It appears to be trending the 0c line a bit further south. Could this mean a bit more snow than previously thought, if it pans out?
ReplyDeleteThe NWS out of Buffalo and other news stations have the snow changing to rain. Also, the storm on Friday looks less and less impressive with each run. The Euro has it way east of us. The GFS is trending east and weaker. Let's hope for a better winter next year.
ReplyDeleteWhat happend to the BIG DADDY BLIZZARD???? Not going to even be close. We are going to get a few inches here and there. Eastern NY and New England will get the bigger snows and even that will not be a blizzard. We are going to get NICKLE and DIMED like always.
ReplyDeleteC'mon guys. You didn't really think we were ever going to get that storm, did you? This is Western New York, the snow hole of the Northeast. I found the trick to having a 100% success rate in your forecast. Just always say that every storm that looks promising will miss us, right from the start. You can't lose. Gauraneteed.
ReplyDeleteWe will be spectators once again.
ReplyDeleteAnd I'll bet you all anything that when the storms do line up right for us, it will be too late in the season in terms of boundry level temps and we will get soaking rainstorm after soaking rainstorm from late March right through June. Just watch.
ReplyDeleteTo the last poster...I think you're exactly right. I've been saying this all winter long. I also said that once storms did start to come close enough to hit us, even if it's technically early enough in the season to snow, it will cut west of us and bring us rain. And our first more measurable synoptic system of the year is about to cut to our west. All I can do at this point is just laugh at how amazingly sucky this winter has been. How EVERY single storm manage to miss us? It defies law of probability!
ReplyDeleteSo let me get this straight...Washington DC has recieved multiple synoptic snowstorms that have produced PURELY SNOW, while we missed out on each and every single one of them. And now that it's our turn, it's a rain / snow mix? That's just twisted!
ReplyDeleteBob, you're working today right? How is today's 12z of the Euro looking for the late week storm (Thu / Fri). Am I right in what i'm seeing that it has gotten more aggressive once again to show a BIG storm for us right here in Rochester?
ReplyDeleteThe STORM( If that is what you want to call it) for MOnday and Tuesday is very weak. We will be lucky to see an inch out of it. The late week storm will miss us and we will be left with snow showers off the lake which will not be impressive since it is not arctic air that will follow the storm. Bring on spring!!!!!!!!!!!1
ReplyDeleteThis is what I think. Western, NY has a goalie over it deflecting every snowstorm to our West, East, North and South. Storms look like they are coming right at us and then they are deflected away from us. It is too funny!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
ReplyDeleteEastern, NY looks to get 2 decent snowstorms this week. One on Tuesday/Wednesday and one on Thursday and Friday. Both will miss Western, NY. WOW!!! It is truly unbelievable that we cannot get a snowstorm here in Western, NY. I have never seen anything like this before and I have lived in Rochester for over 30 years.
ReplyDeleteWe probably won't get the brunt of all this, no. But notice that the GFS, after disappearing that big late week storm, has returned to the bombing out and retrograding idea. And at the same time, the Euro now ha the low blowing up and coming WAY inland into NY. The fact that both have returned to the low backing up near us is promising still. Plus, notice that even if the low doesn't give us the core of it's precip, even the GFS has a swath of darker green along the southern shore of Lake Ontario. I can see places north of the thruway getting over a foot of synoptc / Lake effect mix by next weekend. Not the big blockbuster, but hey, it could really pile up later this week over time.
ReplyDelete