SITTIN' ON THE BORDERLINE
Our jobs are quite difficult in a coming situation like this. Will it rain, will it snow, will it mix, or will it be a combination of both? If so, when will it change, and where?
This is a classic pull-your-hair-out scenario in regards to precipitation type here in western New York Monday night into Tuesday morning.
The images I've included are the model estimates of precip type with 850mb temperatures plotted. The NAM leans more towards the snow side of things, but you can see how close that rain/snow line is to Rochester, with sleet in the picture.
If you look at the GFS, it brings the rain/snow/mix line right over us, meaning a several hour period of a wintry mix likely. The GFS also brings the 0 degree 850 line much further northward.
So which route does my forecast take? I think its safe to say that variable wintry precipitation should be expected from onset to the end of this "storm". The onset will kick in during the mid-afternoon Monday, spreading northeastward into Wayne county by dinner or so. I think that the initial precip will be purely snow, but as lower level air gets warmer, we'll see a mix or sleet. Even freezing rain isn't out of the question for a limited time at this point.
By Tuesday, warming may very well prevent even snow from falling during the daylight hours, with highs forecast to reach the upper 30s.
So how much Bob? Well I wouldn't go worrying about big snow. But its this heavy, wet snow and ice mix that will make for one heck of a sloppy commute late Monday night and especially early Tuesday. An inch or two of slush may be about it for any given area.
After this passes, our attention will shift to the late week. Not a big storm for us, but definitely a wintry stretch of weather with cold, snow, and wind for all of us.
Bob I saw a couple posters mention the euro model. Is it true that today's 12z run has returned to a more "stormy" solution for WNY? Someone said it is backing the low well inland once again, after initially backing off on it.
ReplyDeletewhat sites do you guys use to see all these models. or are they restricted to you professional folk?
ReplyDeleteTo the last poster, I use the Penn State University "e-wall." It's sort of like the control center for most of the major models that the experts use. If you're new to this, you will probably find it a bit confusing, but just play around with the different tools it offers and you'll get familiar with it over time. Here is the website:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html
I should also add this resource as well. It's my personal favorite. It updates almost immeduately when the new data comes in, and it offers the GFS and NAM (two very important models used by the experts) Here it is below:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
Thank you very much. I follow the weather a lot. Even more so in the winter. I am an avid snowmobiler and love to watch the forcasts and coming snowstorms. thank you for all the insight.
ReplyDelete15-20 inches of snow total by week's end here in Rochester. Book it.
ReplyDeleteany reason for those totals? if it happens i'll buy you steak dinners for a week!!
ReplyDeleteBob,
ReplyDeleteLike three people have asked about what the Euro is showing today. What's your take?
The cool part is that the 15-20 inches by this weekend isn't entirely off the table just yet. Even if it doesn't happen all in one or two days, a prolonged NE flow and abundant wrap around moisture from the low off to our east could pile things up to that much in a 3 or 4 day period.
ReplyDeleteNot going to happen. The storm will be well to our east giving Eastern, NY a snowstorm and us on the sidelines.
ReplyDeleteHoly cow. Get a look at the 0z run of the GFS. We're not out of the woods by a long shot!
ReplyDeleteYeah, I saw that. It brings the low further West now. It will probably change several more times though.
ReplyDeleteIn that run, at least, it's incredible how tighly packed the isobars are, too. That would mean some very strong winds along with the heavy snow, lasting for days. But you're right, I expect it will flip maybe right up until the storm is right on us. But hey, the fact that it is still reverting to the further west and more intense solution here on Sunday night, after it had given up on that idea, still gives some decent promise (that is, if you want a blizzard, not everybody does).
ReplyDeleteThis is Brian - I am working on talking about today's system. As you all know not much expected but some slop of wet snow before mixing and changing to rain for a brief bit. The models Bob used are from the AccuWeather.com Professional site and yes that site is a paid site.
ReplyDeleteAlso a month ago I posted some of the sites I and the rest of the weather team uses here LIST OF WEATHER SITES & COMPUTER MODELS