MONDAY'S SYSTEM & THE END OF WEEK SYSTEM
Written by: Brian Neudorff
It's a quiet and cold morning across western New York, but clouds are moving in and with those clouds will come a period of wet snow from midday into early afternoon. As Bob pointed out yesterday we are right on the dividing line between all snow and all rain. Normally that sounds scary for some because of the fear of an icy mix. As I watch this system I don't think we will get much in the way of ice. Maybe times of sleet mixing in and some valleys in the Southern Tier could get very light freezing rain other than that there will be a period of snow before temperatures aloft and at the surface begin to rise above freezing.
The center of this system seem to move over Lake Erie, then towards Toronto by Tuesday morning, before a new system storm begins to form and take over off the Carolina coast and moves up into the Northeast. Once this takes place most of the precipitation will go with it overnight and Tuesday morning.
This is how I see things playing out today. Snow arrives around midday to 2pm, it will be all snow and a wet snow, by late afternoon and evening the snow begins to mix with rain.
This evening temperatures will hold right around the freezing mark so I expect rain and some snow with probably a period of just light rain or drizzle, especially after midnight. Most of the precipitation Tuesday will be rain as temperatures warm to the mid to upper 30s but by afternoon and overnight colder air and a short wave could spark off some more snow showers and give us a few inches Wednesday.
I know most of you are focused on the storm at the end of the week. I took a look at a lot of the models and what is interesting to see is there are just minor tweaks in position and timing in this storm from what Scott was commenting on back on Friday.
This still has the potential of being a good storm for us, now obviously there are already two camps forming on this storm here on this blog: Team "It ain't gonna happen" and team "15-20" Bank on it" I am not ready to jump into any one of those positions just yet but I will tell you it has me a little excited at the possibility. As we all know from this winter it isn't a good idea to get excited over a storm but what helped me this weekend was know Scott was just a little giddy over this storm.
I know there is a lot of speculation and opinions so let's hear them. That's what is great about this site we get to hear from you. Also if you missed my comment in Bob's post from last night, someone asked about what sites we like to use. I did a post on that back in January and if you want to visit it again here is the link: LIST OF WEATHER SITES & COMPUTER MODELS
The 6z GFS looks even more iteresting than the 0z. Itg has the low blowing up over South Eastern, NY. It is a 988 mb low with high winds. If this holds we may have blizzard conditions. I will not get too excited, but the GFS makes me more excited.
ReplyDeleteIf the Euro is correct then we will not get much of anything. It has a 977mb low in New England way east of us. What do you believe.
ReplyDeleteFrom Brian - Like I said above still too early. I expect the models this far out to have different takes on this storm. They typically do. It's a wait and see game and we will try to fine tune and also use what we know and look at passed scenarios and situations to get an idea.
ReplyDeleteRight now, I think we need to watch it and prepare people that this is out there and that this may have an impact on their weekend travel plans.
I don't trust any of them. I bet we see little synoptic snow and more lake snow. Its a pattern we've been in and I bet it won't change much with this storm. Big storm? Don't count on it.
ReplyDeleteBrian,
ReplyDeleteI heard some experts say that what this storm ultimately does will have everything to do with the strength and orientation of the Greenland block, which is apparently in the process of strenthening right now. Is this true?
For what it's worth...the 12z NAM is looking VERY similar to the 06z GFS at that same time frame. And with what we know the 06z GFS does later in the week, that might mean the models are starting to allign on an exploding and retrograding storm. I guess the million dollar question is...how far inland does this bugger go!
ReplyDeleteThe NAM shows the storm a little further east, but very similiar in intensity. The 12z GFS is now coming out. Let's see what that shows.
ReplyDeleteThe NAM only goes out to hour 84, so it doesn't show the storm retrograding further inland, as that happens beyond hour 84.
ReplyDeleteThe 12z GFS is the same as the 6z. It just does not seem like there is a lot of precip with this storm, but it last from Thursday- Sunday.
ReplyDeleteCHANNEL 10'S FORECAST
ReplyDeleteThursday Wind-blown snow with the potential of significant accumulations. High 30.
Friday Wind-blown snow with the potential of significant accumulations. High 29.
Saturday Wind-blown snow with the potential of significant accumulations. High 27.
Sunday Areas of lake snow and flurries. High: 30