FINALLY? A BIG SNOWSTORM FOR ROCHESTER?
Written By: Scott Hetsko
The Beatles have a song off of the Let It Be album and it's called "I've Got A Feeling". Great song and also how I feel about the storm forecast to bomb out in Eastern NY Friday. Since last Thursday, the GFS has been the most consistent model with respect to this feature. What really has me convinced at this point is not so much the surface but the 500mb low diving South from from Southern Canada. This upper low is really what will help ignite this storm and cause it to stall for a 24 hour period Friday morning through early Saturday.
I don't really want to try to forecast snow amounts 4-5 days out, simply too difficult but I will say we have the potential to get 1-2 feet of snow in the region if everything plays out like I suspect it will. Strong winds could create near zero visibility on Friday as winds may gust over 35 mph at times. Looks like we may just get the "big one" after all. We'll see....
I hope you are right Scott. Is the 1-2 feet synoptic in nature. Could it be even more with lake enhancement and lake effect? Could this be a potential blizzard for us?
ReplyDeleteI'm not even going to ask any details at this point, as i'm happy enough by what i'm seeing and hearing all across the board. But Scott, on a personal level, you must be just about beside yourself with excitement. I know I am! Is it normal to get goose bumps while looking at a model update?
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteI know the bar gets set VERY high for the NWS to issue an all out Blizzard Watch. It almost never happens. Based on the current indications, do you think we will meet criteria for a Blizzard Watch and eventually a Blizzard Warning?
They did in 1991 3 days before it hit.
ReplyDeleteOh god, you guys! All I can say to you is that our biggest synoptic/lake enhance snowstorms or blizzards come from negatively tilted troughs on the coast along with a stalled 850 low in SE New York. That seems to be how this storm is shaping up but I'll be convinced on Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteYou have us all excited Scott.
ReplyDeleteI reaaallllly hope you're not getting ahead of yourself on this one Scott. If this happens it will make up for a very boring winter in these parts.
ReplyDeleteI'm not allowing myself to get excited yet.
Hope you are wrong. This sounds like days of back breaking work and misery.
ReplyDeleteIt is weird if you look at the NWS discussions oout of Buffalo, Binghampton, and Albany. They do not even discuss the potential for a BIG storm.
ReplyDeleteThe 18z GFS is exactly the same as the 12z.
ReplyDeleteChannel 10 states: 2-4 feet in central, NY and only multiple inches for us. What the heck is multiple inches????
ReplyDeleteChannel 13 states 6-10
ReplyDeleteHere is how much snow will be in YOUR backyard come Sunday at 7A. Book it!
ReplyDeleteWebster - 21 inches
Lockport - 26 inches
Brighton - 19 inches
Henrietta - 17 inches
Fairport - 18 inches
Gates - 20 inches
Geneseo - 16 inches
Sodus - 30 inches
Victor - 26 inches
How about in Greece? Will I need to shovel a path for my dog?
ReplyDeleteTo the anonymous who posted the snow numbers what is your basis for those numbers. Curious what your background is and how you came up with it. I will tell you that Scott, Bob and myself will either post under the News 8 Weather Blog Account or with our names.
ReplyDeleteThanks
Yeah although I won't put numbers on it until Wednesday, whoever posted that may be close. No reason why we could hit those numbers or close.
ReplyDeleteIm no forcaster and I dont pretend to be. But what im reading around the internet, we might be in for a storm to remember. Weatherman are even munbling the words "blizzard of 1888" I know these are very bold statements to make and yes its very early in the game, I get that. But lets be honest here. If models continue to trend the way they are, and if they turn out to be right. 24" might be the lowest total in the area. A mega storm parked over the hudson river valley, stalled, with an open lake ontario for enhancment, the snow is going to pile and pile up. I think late tomorrow and early wednesday, we will have an idea at where this is going. Looks like models are coming to an agreement already so we will see.
ReplyDeleteYes we will get some snow, but the worst will be central and eastern NY.
ReplyDeleteI get my information from the NWS. They always seem to be the most accurate.
The same NWS that called for a flurry and we got 6" the other night....
ReplyDeleteI think the NWS will issue some statements tomorrow. They cant keep quite on this one.
Well to be honest, I am not looking forward to two feet of wet snow, and I hope all you snow lovers realize what you are hoping for. Do you really want two or three days of travel delays, closings, possible power outages, and days of digging out?
ReplyDeleteIts not going to be a wet now, lots of blowing and drifting. Us plowers want the money. And its almost March, few more weeks left then its spring so lets go out with a bang!
ReplyDeleteTo Anon above.....Yes, I want all of that.
ReplyDeleteLook at the OOz nam. It looks just like the GFS. It is amazing. The nam puts the heaviest snow right over Western, Ny.
ReplyDeleteYeah as we get closer, all models will begin to agree on us getting a large snowfall. It'll be fun to track but it may become a serious storm
ReplyDeleteHey folks, Bill O'reilly on Fox News had a live debate between Bill Nye and Joe Bastardi today. Great stuff. I'm sure it will be youtube-able by tomorrow, or you may be able to pull it up on the Fox News website. It's a must see!
ReplyDeleteI think we've broken a new record for the most posts on a single blog. Expect that number to grow as the storms grows nearer!
ReplyDeleteThe NWS discussion out of Buffalo is saying only 6-12 inches potential. They say nothing about high winds or blizzard conditions. According to them this will not be a blockbuster storm by any means. Just a normal 6-12. Nothing special.
ReplyDeleteThe models are not spitting out a lot of QPF for Rochester. It sill shows Eastern, NY with really high QPF.
ReplyDeleteI hate to say it, but the GFS and the Euro are now trending further east with the Thursday and Friday storm. We may miss out on the 1-2 foot storm and only get a 6-8.
ReplyDeleteAh yes isn't speculation fun? This is Brian, I am going to do an update on this storm later this morning. I did read the NWS discussion and you are leaving out some very important information that they mentioned in their discussion. We are still holding the course on the potential of this storm & it's not unusual to watch models as they come to a consensus to see them go back and forth on location of a storm.
ReplyDeleteThanks Brian. The models are driving me nuts. I will leave it to you guys, the experts. I guess I do not understand the model variatons from run to run. The NWS out of Buffalo may not be considering the lake enhancement for us that will increase totals for our area.
ReplyDeleteToo much confidence is taken on these computer models. A computer will only put out what you put into it. And they have been seriously wrong in the past. I have the wait and see mentality.
ReplyDeleteI know forecasters need to warn people of potential possibilities,but the hype continues...
Scott says 'Bomb out'...Scott bombing out in slang usually means at aint going to happen- Slang A dismal failure; a fiasco.
I think they are playing it safe right now. They are comparing this to an April 2007 storm where around an inch of precipitation fell from Buffalo to Rochester. This storm will be snow for us and if you just use the ratio of 10:1 (10" of snow for every inch of liquid precip) then we will easily see at least 10 inches based on their assessment.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion and if you read on in their discussion they are being cautious. They feel like they have a good idea. They agree that warnings will probably need to be issued. They even mention the pinpointing where the upper level low sets up is tricky and this will have an impact on the overall forecast.
Using the BUFKIT for the NAM and GFS from the 12z & current 00Z runs there are some interesting look at potential snow amounts which I will share in my post later this morning.
Yes Scott did say "Bomb Out" and Scott is not using "Slang" but meteorological terms. You're already calling this forecast a "Dismal Failure/Fiasco" and the storm hasn't even occurred.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to learn what "Bombing Out" means in meteorological terms I recommend you check out this link: More snowy science lessons
"bomb out" is a MET term and means explosive low pressure development. That's a good thing if you like big snows!
ReplyDeleteThanks for your meteorological definition of the phrase. It could be used to describe literally a bombed out city. As I think is where the use of these term originated from.
ReplyDeleteMy point exactly though, the storm has not even occurred.
Thanks for the link and replying. I know that many times these storms have not panned out in western NY.
I swear, if we miss out again, what a fitting slap in the face it would be for the most horrid winter here in WNY. I will seriously be depressed if this one slips away somehow, despite all the confidence. I will be even more down if areas just east of us get creamed.
ReplyDeleteI reviewed the discussions out of New York City, Philadelphia, and Boston and they all say the the storm will bomb out around cape Hatteras which is way to far east for us. The models are trending east now. If this trend continues watch out, we may miss another one. Eastern, Ny is going to get a foot of snow tonight and wednesday which we will miss out on. They may get the next storm as well. All the discussions and model trends are starting to woory me that we will miss yet another BIG storm.
ReplyDeleteEverybody RELAX! This is why I hate 7 day forecasts. Let the storm evole and when we get to tomorrow, we'll have a great idea on what we'll get. Living on computer models alone isn't forecasting!!!
ReplyDeleteThanks Scott, you can catch my newest post on this storm here: THIS WEEKENDS STORM, HYPE OR PREPORATION
ReplyDeleteThis blog is becoming very entertaining.
ReplyDeleteI love predictions. This reminds me of the Phantom Blizzard of 1978 when John Hamilton was so sure we were getting the big one, then at the last hour it missed us. This storm had the lowest recorded pressure at that time. I remember my family and I kept looking out the window, seeing a few flurries, saying here it comes. And it never did.
Sure we will get some snow and wind out of this system, but not to the extent everyone is expecting.
I am by no means a weather forecaster, but after reviewing the latest models, this storm will be to far east to give us feet.
I for one an hoping that Rochester escapes this storm as I am expecting to leave for the Caribbean on Saturday morning. Planes can take off in 2 feet of blowing and drifting snow....can't they? :)
ReplyDeleteI have seen people drive down 390 like a bat out of hell in an SUV during major snow storms!so I am sure the runways will be cleared for your plane...after sitting on the tarmack for awhile waiting to D-Ice. Enjoy your vacation :
ReplyDeleteThe best we can hope for is a crippeling snow storm that cancels schools and closes businesses. What a nice 3 day weekend that would be. I think we all know that this could be a flop, too. We've seen many times what looks like a big storm peeters out and doesn't develop.
ReplyDeleteI am extreeeemly happy to see that I'm not the only person in Rochester to be depressed over this winter !! I for one want a blizzard of epic proportions although I know we will end up w/ 2-5 in. I will continue to hope for the best & will pray for everyone's safety regardless.
ReplyDelete