SNOWY MARCH? LOOK AT RECENT HISTORY
Written By: Scott Hetsko
While listening to my favorite Beatles album this afternoon (can you guess?) I did some research on the El Nino/March snow connection. There have been 3 moderate El Nino's like the current one we are living in right now. What is interesting to me is that the last two seasons behaved about the same as this Winter has so far. Both had below normal February snowfall followed by snowy weather in March.
On March 11, 1992 Rochester recorded 17.5" of snow that day followed by 4.4" the next day. So for those who have completely given up on the prospect of a big snowstorm this Winter, I say we've still got a fighting chance!
That's good to hear, Scott. I think you're going to be right. It almost seems inevitable that mother nature will balance things out around here within the next several weeks. Have you noticed that the GFS has been trying to hint at a MONSTER storm giving WNY a direct hit sometime around the first few days of March? It's been flip flopping a little, but it almost seems likely for a couple reasons. 1) We have been living under recycled cold air for awhile now, but that is about to change as a cross polar flow developes and gives us a return to true arctic cold, and 2) it appears that the core of the cold might actually be centered in the center of the country instead of directly over the east. This seems to be an excellent setup for something to phase and explode as it rides up toward us. I just hope we don't get rain / snow glop out of it, but considering where the NAO, AO and PNA indices should be around that time, we should be OK. By the way, let me end by saying that so far you are nailing our winter forecast, and I think March will "deliver" as you said, which will seal your success! :)
ReplyDeleteI agree with the previous poster, lets sit back and see what happens :)
ReplyDeleteWhoever the first poster is I'll hire you for PR but don't give me too much credit. I did expect a few more swings in temperatures. We've only had a few "mild" days this Winter. I thought we'd at least get a few over 50 in Jan/Feb, there I was wrong.
ReplyDeleteMaybe so, Scott, but I don't know of anyone who forecasted the degree and longevity of the negative AO and NAO that has materialized this winter. I think this winter will be studied and analyzed for years to come as quite an anomaly. Now i'm not a meteorologist, so this is a purely unprofessional opinion, but I, along with many people, get this funny feeling that March is going to bury us with something. You know how they say droughts are usually ended in a big flood rather than small little spurts? Well our snow drought may be ended in one or two beastly storms within the next 2-4 weeks.
ReplyDeleteScott i see the ECMWF, the NAVY NOGAPS and now the latest 18z run of the GFS is showing a storm tracking far enough north to maybe, just maybe, give us our first more direct impact of a synoptic system. Do you think this has promise? Also, I'm a little nervous by where the 18z GFS tracks it though. It has that 0c at 850 line coming at or just north of us. Doesn't that mean a changover to rain? That was my biggest concern of getting jipped by the snow once it comes our way...but then again, how likely would that scenerio be?
ReplyDeleteThe models look even better today. Lets keep out fingers crossed!!
ReplyDeleteI am sorry, but I believe everyone is wrong about March dumping on us.
ReplyDeleteAccording to the Climate Prediction Center off the NWS website, it looks like March will be similar to how this winter has been. As a matter of fact, with the lack of snow, and the way the patterns have been, it is looking like this Spring and Summer will be very warm and dry. Some are predicting that we could have drought conditions as early as May.
What are your thoughts on this Scott?
I agree with the above person and that March will not produce much snow. A storm system next week looks like it is coming right at us again, but then veers to the east and weakens. It will start our cold, but not much snow except for the hit and miss, nickle and dime lake effect that we have seen all year.
ReplyDeleteTough call, I do think our chances of getting one larger storm increase in March. All we need is a slight Northwest shift in just one storm and we got it. One things is for sure, February will end cold with no real warm up in sight even into early March.
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